{"id":693552,"date":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=693552"},"modified":"2026-04-15T04:10:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T04:10:12","slug":"egypt-is-kicking-off-its-most-critical-wheat-harvest-in-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/15\/egypt-is-kicking-off-its-most-critical-wheat-harvest-in-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt is kicking off its most critical wheat harvest in years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The national wheat harvest kicks off today, and it\u2019s one of the most critical harvests in <\/strong><strong>years <\/strong>as the Madbouly government looks to build a homegrown hedge against the prospect of a global food-price shock fuelled by fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war in the Gulf.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Officials are hoping to buy some 5 mn tons of local wheat by mid-August<\/strong> \u2014 up from purchases of less than 3.9 mn tons last season, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptianCabinet\/posts\/pfbid0q3bF1BbB7rpwaLWGzkADhVouUh28JdZnCcVWbM5r7QsdhsskS2ZkwbVgh9Smguswl?rdid=V0SbhQQQ4hiZH8xF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a>. To sweeten the pot, the state is offering a record EGP 2.5k per ardeb at the high end for 23.5-grade wheat \u2014 up from last year\u2019s average prices of EGP 2.3k \u2014 with a commitment pay farmers within 48 hours of any contract closing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Where we stand: <\/strong>The US Department of Agriculture \u2014 still the global expert on these matters \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.graincentral.com\/markets\/higher-production-to-reduce-egypt-wheat-import\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">expects us to have a good harvest<\/a>, projecting we\u2019re going to grow about 9.8 mn tons of wheat this year, up 6.5% from last year. <strong>But we\u2019ll still face a 12.5 mn ton import gap<\/strong> even with some 3.7 mn feddans under cultivation (up 600k from last year).<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The war-risk math<\/strong><strong> isn\u2019t the big thing right now:<\/strong> The cost of imports is rising, sure: The Black Sea wheat index sees wheat futures up about 2.3% since the conflict broke out in late February, and its highest level since June 2025. Logistics and ins. costs are also driving up imported grain prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>But the bigger shock could be still yet to come. How so? <\/strong>This year\u2019s harvest is safe \u2014 it was planted before the war in the Gulf. The risk is to the next one, everywhere in the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has choked off roughly 40-45% of the world\u2019s <\/strong><strong>seaborne fertilizer trade<\/strong>. Nitrogen prices have nearly doubled, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization is warning that if disruption persists through the Northern Hemisphere planting season (the spring wheat planting season is now, winter wheat is planted September through November), wheat yields could decline worldwide. That could see us trying to bridge a 12.5mn-ton supply gap when the rest of the world is scrambling for a much scarcer commodity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are projected to grow 6.5% more wheat, but will face a 12.5 mn ton import gap<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":693623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7305],"tags":[317,72,565,563],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-693552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodities","tag-commodities","tag-enterpriseam","tag-food-security","tag-wheat","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d092f1b1-43bc-469c-beb4-2945c0600b9a","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The Great Game of Wheat","related_issue":[693544],"teaser":"We are projected to grow 6.5% more wheat, but will face a 12.5 mn ton import gap","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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