{"id":693293,"date":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=693293"},"modified":"2026-04-14T13:35:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T13:35:44","slug":"for-egypts-specialty-coffee-roasters-lower-input-costs-mean-stability-not-price-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/14\/for-egypts-specialty-coffee-roasters-lower-input-costs-mean-stability-not-price-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"For Egypt\u2019s specialty coffee roasters, lower input costs mean stability, not price cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u2615 The global coffee market is entering 2026 with a massive <\/strong>supply <\/strong>surplus<\/a><\/strong>. <\/strong>A record-breaking Brazilian harvest<\/a> \u2014 projected at some 76 mn bags<\/a> \u2014 has sent international commodity prices into a tailspin. In any other market, this would be the dawn of the cheap latte era. In Egypt, where coffee consumption per capita doubled<\/a> between 2017 and 2021, the reality on the ground is different.<\/p>\n

For Egyptian roasters, the global price drop isn\u2019t a signal to cut prices <\/strong>\u2014 it\u2019s a lifeline to rebuild balance sheets decimated by currency volatility and logistics bottlenecks. Despite the surplus in Brazil, local retail prices are remaining sticky as business owners prioritize margin recovery and quality investments over price wars.<\/p>\n

Ritual<\/a><\/strong>Coffee<\/a><\/strong>, founded by Hussein Bahgat <\/strong>(LinkedIn)<\/a><\/strong>,<\/strong> sits at the center of this tension.<\/strong> As a roaster for major F&B brands and a consultant for new entrants through his Ritual Academy, Bahgat sees that the story isn\u2019t the price of the bean, but the health of the ecosystem.<\/p>\n

We sat down with Bahgat to discuss what he calls the \u201cBrazil sneeze,\u201d<\/strong> why 10% global drops only mean marginal local relief, and why the next wave of Egyptian coffee growth is happening in the home kitchen. Edited excerpts from our conversation:<\/p>\n

EnterpriseAM: How quickly do global price drops translate to lower costs for Egyptian roasters? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Hussein Bahgat:<\/strong> Unlike previous years, a global price drop could actually translate more directly this time. Egypt has its own internal green coffee pricing dynamic, separate from global indices. When global prices drop sharply, local suppliers often hold inventory rather than sell at a loss, which can paradoxically create shortages and push local prices up even as global benchmarks fall.<\/p>\n

In a 10-20% global drop, Egyptian roasters might realistically see 6-8% relief at the wholesale level<\/strong> after FX, local market dynamics, and supply chain factors. Last year was a disaster for margins \u2014 any relief in 2026 is a recovery, not a windfall.<\/p>\n

E: How is Ritual positioning itself to take advantage of potentially lower input costs?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB:<\/strong> We always invest in innovation, better sourcing, and new machinery.<\/strong> We are planning to further automate our processes to optimize operations and better serve our customers. Our plan this year is to focus on more consumer-facing products \u2014 building on concepts like our holiday advent calendar<\/a> and potentially exploring RTD products and other new formats. Lowering prices is not realistic right now. Last year\u2019s volatility wiped out margins, and we\u2019re still recovering.<\/p>\n

E: If green bean costs do fall significantly, where do you see that margin going?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: Recovery. Last year was brutal, and any margin relief goes toward rebuilding.<\/strong> In this business, some years are really strong, and some are really dark. You can\u2019t react whenever prices drop or increase right away \u2014 you have to wait and analyze carefully. If you keep changing prices as a manufacturer, your customers lose trust. Stability is key. I don\u2019t expect anyone to lower their prices unless big players move first, which I doubt will happen. Once consumers have adjusted to a price point, it tends to stick.<\/p>\n

E: Do you anticipate a wave of new entrants into Egypt\u2019s roasting or caf\u00e9 market?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: The barrier to entry isn\u2019t as high as it was five years ago.<\/strong> There are great suppliers, machine distributors, and academies like ours now \u2014 that infrastructure didn\u2019t exist before. So yes, more people will enter. But entry isn\u2019t the hard part \u2014 succeeding is. Most concepts that fail don\u2019t fail because of the coffee \u2014 they fail because they haven\u2019t identified what makes them different.<\/p>\n

The pie is getting bigger.<\/strong> There\u2019s still wide room for growth beyond caf\u00e9s \u2014 in roasting, green coffee trading, academy facilities, and more. And it\u2019s not just Cairo anymore. We\u2019re seeing strong concepts emerging in other cities. Specialty coffee knowledge is slowly but surely spreading across Egypt.<\/p>\n

E: Which of Ritual\u2019s services do entrepreneurs have the most demand for?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: New entrants typically need general coffee education first. <\/strong>Then, concept creation, machine recommendations, barista training, and finally, coffee sourcing. Often, the journey starts with just buying coffee from us. Then, they get curious, join some courses, and eventually train their full team and uplift their brand. The academy enables people to learn the true technicalities of making great coffee.<\/p>\n

The competitive landscape is growing<\/strong>, and there are a lot of people working hard every day to make great coffee. That\u2019s what specialty coffee is \u2014 the daily decision to put in the effort to make something spectacular. Without that commitment, you\u2019ve got nothing.<\/p>\n

E: What\u2019s your biggest concern that could derail that outlook?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: Geopolitics is always a threat. FX is always a concern too, but the biggest factor is Brazil. <\/strong>When Brazil sneezes, the whole coffee world catches a cold \u2014 that\u2019s a fact. The 2025\/26 Brazilian Arabica crop fell around 13% y-o-y due to drought and high temperatures. We\u2019re watching the 2026\/27 season closely. If rainfall disappoints again, the price relief everyone is forecasting simply won\u2019t materialize.<\/p>\n

Any disruption to Brazil affects everyone. <\/strong>We saw it in 2025 when US tariffs temporarily hit 50% on Brazilian coffee \u2014 it reshuffled global supply flows and drove up prices on alternative origins that we also buy from. Those tariffs were lifted, but the risk of them happening again is always there.<\/p>\n

E: If 2026 does bring relief, what would you advise Egyptian roasters to prioritize?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: Quality. Without question.<\/strong> When input costs ease, the smartest thing a roaster can do is invest in better roasting machinery, better automation, and better QC processes. Source higher-quality beans, improve your roasting systems, and don\u2019t use the relief to cut prices or overexpand \u2014 use it to make a better product. I don\u2019t think there should be any drastic shifts right now. I don\u2019t believe there will be significant price relief at the retail level.<\/p>\n

My advice: strengthen your relationship with your supplier. <\/strong>Be clear about your consumption. And most importantly, invest in better coffee, because the end customer feels it. Don\u2019t look for the best price, look for the best value.<\/p>\n

E: Do you expect more Egyptians to invest in barista skills and home brewing equipment?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: Home brewing is growing exponentially.<\/strong> A lot of people who weren\u2019t coffee drinkers are now drinkers. I believe in the coming years we\u2019ll see more and more people preparing coffee at home. It\u2019s like eating out \u2014 you don\u2019t have all your meals at a restaurant. You cook at home and enjoy it. Coffee is going the same way. Ritual Academy is ready for that demand. We\u2019re planning to run more courses and introduce more consumer-facing workshops this year. We\u2019re scaling the education side of the business.<\/p>\n

E: How has the specialty coffee scene in Egypt evolved since you started your business?<\/strong><\/p>\n

HB: I started just before Covid-19. At the time, the industry was still young. <\/strong>Since then, awareness has grown massively. Coffee is now part of youth culture. Caf\u00e9s have become social hubs, replacing traditional shisha spots. Post-Covid, we\u2019ve seen a boom in both local production and consumer demand. More F&B giants are entering the space, and there\u2019s now a clearer distinction between generic and specialty coffee experiences.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cGeopolitics is always a threat. FX is always a concern too, but the biggest factor is Brazil\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":693294,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12457],"tags":[633,564,900,1546],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-693293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-food-and-beverage","tag-enterprisepm","tag-food","tag-food-and-beverage","tag-lifestyle","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"61fa6999-5659-44fa-9e05-c6e33bbca933","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/623.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Global coffee prices are crashing, so why is your Americano still getting more expensive?","related_issue":[693288],"teaser":"\u201cGeopolitics is always a threat. 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