{"id":692843,"date":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=692843"},"modified":"2026-04-14T03:52:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T03:52:56","slug":"war-pushes-egypts-inflation-higher-to-15-2-in-march-beating-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/14\/war-pushes-egypts-inflation-higher-to-15-2-in-march-beating-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"War pushes Egypt\u2019s inflation higher to 15.2% in March, beating expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to <\/strong>15.2% <\/strong>in March<\/strong> \u2014 beating almost all analyst estimates \u2014 as the economy absorbed the first full month of the US-Israeli war with Iran, surging energy prices, and a weakening EGP fueled broad-based cost pressures. On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier, according to Capmas data.<\/p>\n

\u201cMarch inflation came higher than our estimate of 14.5% y-o-y and 2.6% m-o-m<\/strong>, and higher than the Reuters poll\u2019s median estimate of 14.7% y-o-y,\u201d HC\u2019s Nemat Choukri tells EnterpriseAM. Choukri blames the war, which pushed global energy prices higher, prompting the government to raise diesel and petrol prices by an average of c.16% on 10 March, alongside a c.12% depreciation in the EGP, which ended the month at EGP 54.56\/USD.<\/p>\n

Food and beverage prices \u2014 which account for the majority of the goods in the CPI <\/strong>basket \u2014 rose 4.8% in a single month<\/strong> as war-driven shipping and ins. costs trickled down, mainly on the back of a 21.6% increase in vegetable prices fueled by rising transportation costs, CI Capital writes in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Electricity, gas, and other fuel items rose by 8.6% m-o-m.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur main concern here is the potentially lingering upward pressure on the food item, <\/strong>which might witness global disruptions fueled by higher fertilizer and energy prices,\u201d Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed tells us.<\/p>\n

More price hikes are coming:<\/strong> Recent fuel hikes of 14\u201330% in March will be compounded by upcoming electricity price hikes. Commercial electricity tariffs are expected to jump between 20\u201391% this month, along with an increase in residential tariffs between 16\u201328%.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next <\/p>\n

Where we go from here is closely tied to currency movements and utility price <\/strong>adjustments. <\/strong>\u201cWe expect the electricity price hikes to reflect in the April 2026 inflation figure [\u2026] it is likely to be partially offset by a possible drop in vegetable prices due to the harvesting season,\u201d CI Capital notes. In addition, it \u201cexpect[s] currency movements throughout [April] to also direct the inflation momentum and direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

Potential easing? <\/strong>\u201cOur online price trackers suggest a somewhat sharp reversal in poultry prices (down c. 8% m-o-m) and we expect a lower monthly print in April, which could translate into a modest drop in the annual headline inflation,\u201d Beltone Head of Research Ahmed Hafez tells us. But unfavourable base effects could see inflation staying within current levels throughout 2Q and 3Q due to persistently elevated global energy prices, he added.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect interest rates to dip anytime soon: <\/strong>\u201cThe CBE is likely to pause its monetary easing cycle until Egypt is firmly back on its pre-February disinflationary path,\u201d Hafez said. Most analysts we spoke to agreed. \u201cWe believe the CBE might prefer to put its easing cycle on hold throughout the current phase of uncertainty and until the real cost of the Iran war can be assessed,\u201d Ahmed added.<\/p>\n

The central bank next meets on 21 May <\/strong>to review its policy rates. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month 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