{"id":692843,"date":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=692843"},"modified":"2026-04-14T03:52:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T03:52:56","slug":"war-pushes-egypts-inflation-higher-to-15-2-in-march-beating-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/14\/war-pushes-egypts-inflation-higher-to-15-2-in-march-beating-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"War pushes Egypt\u2019s inflation higher to 15.2% in March, beating expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to <\/strong>15.2% <\/strong>in March<\/strong> \u2014 beating almost all analyst estimates \u2014 as the economy absorbed the first full month of the US-Israeli war with Iran, surging energy prices, and a weakening EGP fueled broad-based cost pressures. On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier, according to Capmas data.<\/p>\n

\u201cMarch inflation came higher than our estimate of 14.5% y-o-y and 2.6% m-o-m<\/strong>, and higher than the Reuters poll\u2019s median estimate of 14.7% y-o-y,\u201d HC\u2019s Nemat Choukri tells EnterpriseAM. Choukri blames the war, which pushed global energy prices higher, prompting the government to raise diesel and petrol prices by an average of c.16% on 10 March, alongside a c.12% depreciation in the EGP, which ended the month at EGP 54.56\/USD.<\/p>\n

Food and beverage prices \u2014 which account for the majority of the goods in the CPI <\/strong>basket \u2014 rose 4.8% in a single month<\/strong> as war-driven shipping and ins. costs trickled down, mainly on the back of a 21.6% increase in vegetable prices fueled by rising transportation costs, CI Capital writes in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Electricity, gas, and other fuel items rose by 8.6% m-o-m.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur main concern here is the potentially lingering upward pressure on the food item, <\/strong>which might witness global disruptions fueled by higher fertilizer and energy prices,\u201d Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed tells us.<\/p>\n

More price hikes are coming:<\/strong> Recent fuel hikes of 14\u201330% in March will be compounded by upcoming electricity price hikes. Commercial electricity tariffs are expected to jump between 20\u201391% this month, along with an increase in residential tariffs between 16\u201328%.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next <\/p>\n

Where we go from here is closely tied to currency movements and utility price <\/strong>adjustments. <\/strong>\u201cWe expect the electricity price hikes to reflect in the April 2026 inflation figure [\u2026] it is likely to be partially offset by a possible drop in vegetable prices due to the harvesting season,\u201d CI Capital notes. In addition, it \u201cexpect[s] currency movements throughout [April] to also direct the inflation momentum and direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

Potential easing? <\/strong>\u201cOur online price trackers suggest a somewhat sharp reversal in poultry prices (down c. 8% m-o-m) and we expect a lower monthly print in April, which could translate into a modest drop in the annual headline inflation,\u201d Beltone Head of Research Ahmed Hafez tells us. But unfavourable base effects could see inflation staying within current levels throughout 2Q and 3Q due to persistently elevated global energy prices, he added.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect interest rates to dip anytime soon: <\/strong>\u201cThe CBE is likely to pause its monetary easing cycle until Egypt is firmly back on its pre-February disinflationary path,\u201d Hafez said. Most analysts we spoke to agreed. \u201cWe believe the CBE might prefer to put its easing cycle on hold throughout the current phase of uncertainty and until the real cost of the Iran war can be assessed,\u201d Ahmed added.<\/p>\n

The central bank next meets on 21 May <\/strong>to review its policy rates. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":692844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-692843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"50e92b15-876e-4109-9eb8-4f7b18a0a2dc","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/579.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"We knew it would be bad, but\u2026","related_issue":[692834],"teaser":"On a monthly basis, inflation jumped to 3.2%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier"},"yoast_head":"\nWar pushes Egypt\u2019s inflation higher to 15.2% in March, beating expectations - 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Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.6% y-o-y in July, up from 13.2% in June when prices unexpectedly cooled\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/216.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547161,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","url_meta":{"origin":692843,"position":3},"title":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549270,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/11\/inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":692843,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits highest level since November 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerated in August to reach a near-four-year high on the back of higher food and beverage prices, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas(pdf) on Thursday. Urban consumer prices grew at a 14.6% y-o-y clip, compared with 13.6% in July, marking the highest recorded figure since November 2018\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/179.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/11\/egypt-inflation-hits-new-four-year-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":692843,"position":5},"title":"Egypt inflation hits new four-year high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerated again in September as price shocks continue to linger, according to CAPMAS figures (pdf). Urban consumer price inflation rose to 15.0% y-o-y in September, up from 14.6 % last month, amid an ongoing surge in living costs fuelled by the war in Ukraine and a weaker EGP. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=692843"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":692884,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692843\/revisions\/692884"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/692834"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/692844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=692843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=692843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=692843"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=692843"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=692843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}