{"id":692446,"date":"2026-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=692446"},"modified":"2026-04-08T03:42:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T03:42:16","slug":"egypt-faces-triple-deficit-trap-as-regional-risks-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/08\/egypt-faces-triple-deficit-trap-as-regional-risks-mount\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt faces triple deficit trap as regional risks mount"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Egypt is a \u201ctriple deficit\u201d economy, \u201ccombining fiscal,<\/strong><strong> current account, and energy deficits<\/strong>,\u201d which leaves it highly exposed to the fallout from the war in the region, according to the latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/297.pdf\" style=\"\">Allianz Economic Outlook 2026-27 (pdf)<\/a>. Allianz classifies the country\u2019s vulnerability to physical supply disruptions as high and its exposure to rising energy price movements as medium, along with a negative FX outlook and high risk of fiscal slippage through the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cExternal pressure is compounded by a distinct and underappreciated risk: their<\/strong><strong> dependence on Gulf remittance<\/strong>,\u201d according to the report. With remittances accounting for 5.6% of GDP, the prospect of a longer war and the resulting impact on economic activity in the Gulf could \u201creduce remittance flows precisely when import bills are rising, creating a potential double squeeze on external accounts that could widen financing gaps and pressure foreign reserves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Egypt and Jordan are also exposed given their reliance on tourism for FX inflows<\/strong>, as the countries\u2019 \u201cgeographical proximity to the conflict is already weighing on arrival numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The country will be hard hit if the Hormuz Strait is closed for more than three months<\/strong>, with Egypt and other countries with triple deficit economies set to face \u201chigher import bills widen external positions while governments simultaneously face rising subsidy costs and financing pressures, forcing procyclical tightening.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With remittances accounting for 5.6% of GDP, decreased economic activity in the GCC cut pressure on this source of hard currency<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":692447,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,93,72,955,6984,91,2396],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-692446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-hospitality","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-remittances","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8a1b9e6c-6cfe-4317-8202-df963eba044e","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/909.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Triple threat","related_issue":[692436],"teaser":"With remittances accounting for 5.6% of GDP, decreased economic activity in the GCC cut pressure on this source of hard currency"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The government was predicting 5.5% growth in the coming fiscal year as recently as last week, when it published its draft budget.Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/209.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567814,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/08\/egypts-budget-deficit-down-remittances-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":692446,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit down, remittances up","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit shrank to EGP 134.9 bn, equivalent to 2.1% of GDP in 1Q2020-2021 compared to 2.3% during the same period last year, according to a Finance Ministry report (pdf). The report attributes the narrowing deficit to an 18.4% y-o-y uptick in state revenues to EGP 204.7 bn, which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577730,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/04\/remittances-to-egypt-to-rise-2-5-this-year-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":692446,"position":2},"title":"Remittances to Egypt to rise 2.5% this year- World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Remittances from Egyptians abroad are set to rise 2.5% this year, climbing to USD 32.3 bn from USD 31.5 bn in 2021, according to the World Bank\u2019s latest forecast (pdf). The Washington-based lender sees Egypt\u2019s inflows benefiting from surging oil prices, which will increase transfers from Egyptian workers based in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/36.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":692446,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545711,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/10\/finmin-narrows-deficit-target-for-this-fiscal-year-as-economy-withstands-global-turmoil\/","url_meta":{"origin":692446,"position":4},"title":"FinMin narrows deficit target for this fiscal year as economy withstands global turmoil","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Madbouly government now expects the budget deficit to contract to 6.2% this fiscal year, down from a previous 6.9% target, as the economy absorbs the initial shock of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told a Bank of America delegation, according to a Finance Ministry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/176.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546341,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/12\/remittances-from-egyptians-abroad-to-grow-8-in-2022-says-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":692446,"position":5},"title":"Remittances from Egyptians abroad to grow 8% in 2022, says World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s not all dim on the macro front: Remittances from Egyptian expats are expected to grow at a faster pace in 2022, rising by 8% compared to 6.4% last year, according to the World Bank\u2019s latest forecast (pdf). The lender says that flows will pick up due to an \u201caltruistic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/156.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=692446"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692446\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":692487,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692446\/revisions\/692487"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/692436"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/692447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=692446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=692446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=692446"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=692446"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=692446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}