{"id":692235,"date":"2026-04-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=692235"},"modified":"2026-04-07T03:46:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T03:46:47","slug":"iran-war-triggers-first-major-crack-in-15-month-egx-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/07\/iran-war-triggers-first-major-crack-in-15-month-egx-bull-run\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war triggers first major crack in 15-month EGX bull run"},"content":{"rendered":"

The EGX closed 1Q in the green<\/strong>, with the headline figure masking a March selloff that marked the first major crack in a 15-month bull run<\/a>. The benchmark index gained 8.4% to reach 45.3k points in the first quarter of the year, despite dipping 7.9% in March as the Iran war disrupted markets and triggered a pullback in foreign portfolio flows, data from the bourse\u2019s latest quarterly (pdf)<\/a> and monthly (pdf)<\/a> reports show.<\/p>\n

The macro picture<\/p>\n

More than liquidity chasing a trade:<\/strong> \u201cEgypt entered 2026 with genuine macro improvement \u2014 the balance of payments strengthening, the current account deficit narrowing, FX stability returning and the external position improving on the back of carry inflows,\u201d EFG Hermes Research Associate Noura El Essawy and EGH Hermes Research Materials MD and Chemicals Research Head Youssef Husseini, tell EnterpriseAM. That backdrop made valuations \u201cincreasingly attractive relative to a risk profile that had materially improved,\u201d supporting what they describe as a well-founded equity bid.<\/p>\n

This is not the correction we\u2019ve been expecting: <\/strong>\u201cAfter the strong start to the year, it is normal to see a correction (even if the market remained relatively cheap), but the magnitude and flows suggest it is mostly geopolitics,\u201d Beltone Holding Head of Research Ahmed Hafez tells us.<\/p>\n

\n

FX volatility bites <\/p>\n

Hot money heads for the exit: <\/strong>While Egypt started the year as a top pick for frontier investors on cheap valuations and macro tailwinds, the conflict forced a reversal of foreign fund inflows seen in January and February, Hafez tells us.<\/p>\n

The FX move proved particularly punitive for foreign positioning.<\/strong> The EGP depreciation \u201craised the mark-to-market cost of EGP-denominated positions for foreign investors simultaneously, compounding the pressure,\u201d Husseini and El Essawy say, describing a rapid unwinding of the pillars that had supported the earlier re-rating.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Morgan Stanely downgraded its outlook for Egyptian equities<\/a> to \u201cequal weight\u201d from \u201coverweight\u201d earlier in March, citing the country's vulnerability as a net oil importer with a tourism-reliant economy, and a struggling Suez Canal against a backdrop of regional unrest. <\/p>\n

\n

Where the market is holding up<\/p>\n

Almost all major sectors closed March in the red as profittaking intensified.<\/strong> Only shipping and transportation services managed to buck the trend, jumping 14.1%. On the flipside, IT, media, and communications lagged the market with a 10.0% drop, followed by food, beverages, and tobacco (-8.3%), healthcare and pharma (-7.4%), and construction (-7.1%).<\/p>\n

Parts of the market monetized the macro shock, others absorbed it: <\/strong>Banks and basic resources effectively acted as hedges, with revenue models benefiting from higher rates, currency weakness, and elevated commodity prices, Husseini and El Essawy say. By contrast, consumer-facing sectors \u2014 including food, healthcare, and industrials \u2014 \u201cimport inputs priced in USD, sell domestically in a depreciating currency, and serve consumers whose real purchasing power is being squeezed,\u201d leaving them exposed on the cost side with limited offsets.<\/p>\n

\n

Zooming out<\/p>\n

How we fared against regional peers: <\/strong>Saudi Arabia\u2019s energy-heavy TASI outperformed the EGX in March with a 5.1% increase as higher oil prices propped up Aramco\u2019s stock. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi\u2019s ADX (-8.9%) and Dubai\u2019s DFM (-16.4%) bore the brunt of the region\u2019s geopolitical unrest as Dubai\u2019s two growth engines \u2014 tourism and real estate \u2014 took a hit. <\/p>\n

Domestic liquidity is still present, but increasingly selective. <\/strong>\u201cWith one of the highest real interest rates globally, the gravitational pull toward fixed income is particularly strong,\u201d Husseini and El Essawy say, pointing to T-bills yielding above 23% versus an equity earnings yield of roughly 7%. Retail dip-buying helped cushion drawdowns, but institutional capital continues to favor fixed income. <\/p>\n

Any sustained recovery in flows will likely hinge first on geopolitics.<\/strong> \u201cGeopolitics is the unlock,\u201d Husseini and El Essawy say, arguing that de-escalation is needed to stabilise FX, compress risk premiums, and reopen the path for rate cuts without which equities struggle to compete with fixed income on a risk-adjusted basis.<\/p>\n

AND- <\/strong>EFG Hermes arms topped the EGX brokerage league table (pdf)<\/a> last quarter with a combined market share of 16.8%, followed by Thndr (11.9%) and Mubasher (6.7%). EFG\u2019s two brokerages retained the top spot with a 15.9% market share in March, beating Thndr (12.9%) and Mubasher (6.8%), according to the bourse\u2019s monthly ranking (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The benchmark index rose 8.4% the first quarter of the year, despite dipping 7.9% in March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7303],"tags":[102,68,72,119],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-692235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-capital-markets","tag-capital-markets","tag-egx","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"20fff59e-ffb3-4ebb-a667-7d98982ca7a1","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The 15-month bull run on the EGX just hit its first real wall","related_issue":[692225],"teaser":"The benchmark index rose 8.4% the first quarter of the year, despite dipping 7.9% in March."},"yoast_head":"\nIran war triggers first major crack in 15-month EGX bull run - 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