{"id":691591,"date":"2026-04-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=691591"},"modified":"2026-04-05T03:46:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T03:46:08","slug":"cbe-holds-rates-as-regional-war-derails-easing-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/05\/cbe-holds-rates-as-regional-war-derails-easing-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE holds rates as regional war derails easing cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

The<\/strong> Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee<\/strong> kept<\/strong> inter<\/strong>est rates on hold at its meeting on Thursday<\/strong>, pausing the easing cycle in line with analyst expectations<\/a>, the central bank said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. The committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.00%, the lending rate at 20.00%, and the main operation and reduced rates at 19.50%, noting that the war has triggered a global energy shock and reversed the disinflation trend seen earlier this year. <\/p>\n

Hawkish hold:<\/strong> London-based economist Ali Metwally describes the CBE\u2019s decision as a \u201chawkish hold,\u201d meaning it keeps interest rates high while signaling readiness to raise them if needed. The central bank is explicitly treating the crisis as an external supply shock, as the war disrupts global trade, spikes agricultural and energy prices, and reverses the disinflation trend seen earlier this year, Metwally tells us.<\/p>\n

Targets under pressure: <\/strong>The CBE\u2019s 7% (\u00b12 percentage points) inflation target for 4Q 2026 is now highly threatened by a fear-driven spike in global energy costs, particularly in the event of a prolonged conflict. Around 20% of the current high oil prices are strictly a geopolitical \u201crisk premium\u201d that could vanish rapidly if the US-Iran conflict ends, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena tells us. If the war resolves in April, inflation could cool to 12-13% by the end of the year. However, a prolonged conflict could push inflation past 15%.<\/p>\n

Growth outlook trimmed: <\/strong>The CBE revised down its real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.9%, from 5.1% previously, and now expects growth during 1Q 2026 to slow to 4.8-5.0%, compared to 5.3% in 4Q 2025. The moderation is expected to keep output below potential for longer, helping to contain demand-side inflation pressures in the near term.<\/p>\n

Shock absorber:<\/strong> The central bank praised the recent depreciation of the EGP as a successful \u201cprimary shock absorber.\u201d Genena echoed this, noting that the flexible exchange rate is rapidly restoring export competitiveness and bringing foreign investors back to the market faster than anticipated.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next? <\/strong>The committee has formally adopted a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d approach for future meetings, signaling a potentially prolonged pause on rate cuts. \u201cAs long as things are unclear, the MPC will keep rates as they are,\u201d former Banque Misr deputy chair Sahar El Damaty said. The committee may stick with this approach for the rest of the year, if no additional \u201cregional or global surprises\u201d take place, Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed told us.<\/p>\n

Future interest rate decisions will be strictly data-driven<\/strong>, with the CBE closely monitoring the \u201cpass-through\u201d effect of the depreciated EGP on local inflation, Metwally noted. The central bank stands ready to tighten policy further if this current inflation wave threatens to turn into a long-term spiral of expectations. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Growth outlook for the current fiscal year was trimmed to 4.9% as uncertainty weighs on economic activity<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":691592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,724,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-691591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ae1dc5b6-7be8-478b-a945-be045e6e4995","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2177.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBE puts its easing cycle on ice as inflation risks resurface","related_issue":[691586],"teaser":"Growth outlook for the current fiscal year was trimmed to 4.9% as uncertainty weighs on economic activity"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE holds rates as regional war derails easing cycle - 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The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547520,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/26\/a-less-hawkish-cbe\/","url_meta":{"origin":691591,"position":1},"title":"A less hawkish CBE?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged in its meeting last Thursday, breaking a run of rate hikes in its two previous meetings to tackle high inflation. The CBE left the overnight deposit rate at 11.25% and the lending rate at 12.25%, while the main operation and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/295.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":678960,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/28\/central-bank-sets-up-2026-nicely-with-100-bps-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":691591,"position":2},"title":"Central bank sets up 2026 nicely with 100 bps rate cut","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 December 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"725 bps sounds like a lot, but we\u2019re just at the \u201cbeginning or middle\u201d of a longer journey, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genana tells EnterpriseAM","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Story Today"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Story Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-big-story-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565654,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/shifting-gears\/","url_meta":{"origin":691591,"position":3},"title":"Shifting gears","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging market central banks waving goodbye to their easing cycles? Policymakers across 37 emerging markets delivered five net interest rate hikes in March, Reuters reports. Last month, the central banks of Ukraine, Georgia, Brazil, Turkey and Russia all decided to raise interest rates, with \u201cmany delivering bigger hikes than expected,\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":691591,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":668262,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/13\/cbe-holds-interest-rates-steady-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":691591,"position":5},"title":"CBE holds interest rates steady","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 July 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank will be monitoring inflation risks and the impact of recent VAT amendments","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1944.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=691591"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":691634,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691591\/revisions\/691634"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/691586"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/691592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=691591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=691591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=691591"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=691591"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=691591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}