{"id":690559,"date":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=690559"},"modified":"2026-03-30T03:47:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T03:47:35","slug":"bmi-oxford-economics-trim-egypt-growth-forecasts-as-war-pressures-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/30\/bmi-oxford-economics-trim-egypt-growth-forecasts-as-war-pressures-mount\/","title":{"rendered":"BMI, Oxford Economics trim Egypt growth forecasts as war pressures mount"},"content":{"rendered":"

After a welcome flurry of growth forecast upgrades at the start of the year, the <\/strong>country is facing a wartime reality check. <\/strong>Fitch Solutions\u2019 research arm BMI now sees GDP growth ending the current fiscal year at 4.9% y-o-y, down 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast, it said in a recent report<\/a> laying out its baseline assumption that the war will last only four weeks. Oxford Economics likewise downgraded its 2026 forecast 0.4 percentage points to 4.5% y-o-y in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. The downgrades come as the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development has recently warned<\/a> its growth forecast for Egypt and other affected countries is \u201clikely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d in its June update if energy prices were to remain elevated.\u201d<\/p>\n

BMI also revised down its growth projections for the coming fiscal year by 0.2 percentage <\/strong>points to 5.2%<\/strong>, reflecting a weaker starting point and a lack of expectations of an immediate, speedy recovery.<\/p>\n

\u201cEgypt is particularly exposed to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East,\u201d <\/strong>Oxford Economics said in its explanation for the downgrade. Both BMI and Oxford Economics point to Egypt\u2019s reliance on energy imports, reduced Suez Canal transit volumes, and geographic vulnerability to trade disruptions behind their assessments.<\/p>\n

Consumers \u2014 and not just the state \u2014 will have to tighten their belts<\/strong>, according to BMI, which sees household consumption as inflation averages at 13.0% for 2026, up from a previous forecast average of 11.7%. In addition to price hikes from the government for fuel, transport, and other utilities and commodities, BMI sees a depreciating EGP and higher freight rates also adding to consumer prices.<\/p>\n

While imports will become more expensive, exports are expected to fall<\/strong>, with a projected 0.1 percentage point fall in net exports on the back of strained Suez Canal traffic and decreasing tourism revenues, according to BMI.<\/p>\n

Real investment growth is likewise expected to fall<\/strong> on the back of \u201chigher input costs facing businesses, alongside some reallocation of public spending away from capital expenditure towards social support and essential imports,\u201d according to Fitch\u2019s research unit. Because of this and an expected fall in FDI inflows \u2014 especially from Gulf-led projects \u2014 BMI now sees real investment growth for the year coming in at 5.8% y-o-y, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous outlook.<\/p>\n

But the long-term view isn\u2019t as gloomy as on first impressions<\/strong>, with both of BMI\u2019s figures remaining above Egypt\u2019s recent historical averages and still marking the strongest expansions since the fiscal year 2021-22.<\/p>\n

The elephant in the room remains that the war will very likely be more prolonged than<\/strong> hoped<\/strong>, with BMI signalling a further 0.4 percentage point cut to its outlook to 4.5% y-o-y if the war lasts an additional four weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The downgrades come as the EBRD warns its growth forecast for Egypt and other affected countries is \u201clikely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":690560,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[104,72,182,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-690559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"970227c4-555c-4bc2-b384-8ae577471c8a","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1357.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The recent flurry of growth forecast upgrades is coming to an abrupt, wartime end","related_issue":[690554],"teaser":"The downgrades come as the EBRD warns its growth forecast for Egypt and other affected countries is \u201clikely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d"},"yoast_head":"\nBMI, Oxford Economics trim Egypt growth forecasts as war pressures mount - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/30\/bmi-oxford-economics-trim-egypt-growth-forecasts-as-war-pressures-mount\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BMI, Oxford Economics trim Egypt growth forecasts as war pressures mount\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The downgrades come as the EBRD warns its growth 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