{"id":690404,"date":"2026-03-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=690404"},"modified":"2026-03-29T03:57:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T03:57:35","slug":"ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/29\/ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD hints at likely growth downgrade as Egypt ranks as its fourth most war vulnerable regions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egypt ranks fourth among most vulnerable <\/strong>EBRD <\/strong>regions to the war on Iran<\/strong>, with impacts felt through a combination of surging energy prices, disrupted trade, and a debt-servicing burden increasing fiscal pressure, according to a new research note (pdf)<\/a> from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The country was behind only Lebanon in first place, Jordan, and Iraq.<\/p>\n

The war is beginning to filter down to revised-down growth forecasts<\/strong>, with a welcome flurry of improved GDP growth predictions in recent months coming to an abrupt halt. For its part, the EBRD cautions that the \u201cgrowth forecast for the EBRD regions is likely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d in its June update if energy prices were to remain elevated.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s position as a net energy exporter is proving punishing to the wallet<\/strong>, with Brent crude surpassing USD 100 \/ bbl and LNG witnessing significant price increases. But this won\u2019t just be felt in the state\u2019s energy import bill or at the pump, with the report warning that knock-on effects from this if prices remain high and disruptions to metals and chemicals potentially leading to a more than 1.5 percentage point increase in global inflation.<\/p>\n

Why this matters: <\/strong>For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months. The price of oil \u201cmight reach USD 180 per barrel if Gulf oil remains largely off-market\u201d and the region\u2019s importance in the LNG trade should lead to similar increases for this energy source that Egypt has increasingly relied on in recent years to bridge the gap between the supply and demand, further pushing up the country\u2019s energy import bill.<\/p>\n

But even with a welcome quick end to the war, gas prices are still expected to remain<\/strong> high<\/strong> as \u201cas European and Asian buyers scramble to refill storage while LNG production takes weeks to restart,\u201d according to the report. A lot also depends on how damaged energy infrastructure in the region is when the war ends and how long it takes to first repair and then restart operations \u2014 a particularly lengthy process for LNG facilities.<\/p>\n

The steady increase in remittances we\u2019ve been seeing could also be negatively affected<\/strong> \u2014 but it\u2019s too early to tell. <\/strong>Although \u201cremittance flows tend to remain stable in times of crises,\u201d the longer-term concern is that \u201cprolonged conflict could reduce demand for foreign labour in the GCC economies.\u201d Remittances, which rose 40.5% y-o-y to USD 41.5 bn in 2025, have become an increasingly part of the country\u2019s hard currency inflows that helped counter the drop off in Suez Canal revenues in 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":690405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[571,104,93,72,348,6984,91],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-690404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1820c483-8e15-447f-a224-724a79f94606","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/152.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EBRD warns Egypt faces high vulnerability as Iran war stokes fiscal pressure","related_issue":[690390],"teaser":"For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months"},"yoast_head":"\nEBRD hints at likely growth downgrade as Egypt ranks as its fourth most war vulnerable regions - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/29\/ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EBRD hints at likely growth downgrade as Egypt ranks as its fourth most war vulnerable regions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For net-energy importers like Egypt, the 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