{"id":689635,"date":"2026-03-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=689635"},"modified":"2026-03-30T08:12:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T08:12:29","slug":"bmi-raises-egypt-deficit-forecast-to-3-4-as-war-triggers-massive-outflows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/25\/bmi-raises-egypt-deficit-forecast-to-3-4-as-war-triggers-massive-outflows\/","title":{"rendered":"BMI raises Egypt deficit forecast to 3.4% as war triggers massive outflows"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s current account deficit is projected to come in 1.2 percentage <\/strong>points higher than previously<\/strong> forecast<\/strong>, coming in at 3.4% of GDP this fiscal year and by 0.6 percentage points more than previously thought for the next fiscal year at 2.5%, according to a recent report<\/a> from Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI. Despite downward revisions, the current account deficit for both years are still projected to fall from the previous fiscal year and remain below the ten-year average. The research firm pointed to a deteriorating external position amid the US-Iran conflict on the back of a triple threat of higher energy bills, a tourism slowdown, and a stalled recovery for the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n

T<\/strong>he headwinds:<\/strong> Disruptions to regional gas supplies are expected to add USD 2-4 bn to Egypt\u2019s import bill, while Suez Canal transit tonnages remain standard at 30-35% of pre-crisis levels, and tourism arrivals from key European markets \u2014 which typically account for over half of all visitors \u2014 slow down.<\/p>\n

The liquidity squeeze:<\/strong> The conflict has triggered USD 8-9 bn in foreign portfolio outflows since mid-February. These outflows, combined with a heavier debt maturity profile in March and April 2026, are intensifying external financial pressures. However, the Central Bank of Egypt is currently utilizing its USD 13.7 bn in FX deposits parked at commercial banks as a primary buffer to shield official state reserves.<\/p>\n

The worst-case scenario:<\/strong> A prolonged conflict could push the deficit to 4.4% of GDP and force harsh domestic adjustments, although BMI\u2019s baseline assumes a short-lived conflict with oil averaging USD 72 \/ bbl. However, if the war drags on and pushes oil prices to a high-case scenario of USD 110-130 \/ bbl, the intense financial strain would make domestic adjustments \u2014 including further subsidy rollbacks, fiscal measures, and potential return to rate hikes \u2014 inevitable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a prolonged scenario, the current account deficit could reach 4.4% of GDP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":689636,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[12593,104,72,3637],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-689635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-deficit","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-solutions","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ba6b9346-41b5-434c-ba59-c54396ef513c","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1151.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Current account deficit seen ballooning to 3.4% of GDP in current FY","related_issue":[689627],"teaser":"In a prolonged scenario, the current account deficit could reach 4.4% of GDP","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nBMI raises Egypt deficit forecast to 3.4% as war triggers massive outflows - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/25\/bmi-raises-egypt-deficit-forecast-to-3-4-as-war-triggers-massive-outflows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BMI raises Egypt deficit forecast to 3.4% as war triggers massive outflows\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In a prolonged scenario, the current account deficit 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