{"id":687467,"date":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=687467"},"modified":"2026-03-11T04:02:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T04:02:00","slug":"egypts-inflation-accelerates-to-13-4-in-february-analysts-signal-a-definitive-pause-in-cbe-easing-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/11\/egypts-inflation-accelerates-to-13-4-in-february-analysts-signal-a-definitive-pause-in-cbe-easing-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s inflation accelerates to 13.4% in February, analysts signal a definitive pause in CBE easing cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual<\/strong> urban inflation surged to 13.4% in February<\/strong>, up from 11.9% in January, according to the latest Capmas data seen by EnterpriseAM. The reading, which preceded the full impact of the regional conflict that erupted in late February, has prompted analysts to forecast a definitive pause \u2014 and potentially a reversal \u2014 of the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s monetary easing cycle. Prices climbed 2.8% m-o-m, a sharp acceleration from the 1.2% seen in January.<\/p>\n

Behind the jump: <\/strong>This uptick was primarily fueled by a 4.6% y-o-y and 2.8% m-o-m increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, and a 15.7% y-o-y and 3.2% m-o-m uptick in alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics prices. <\/p>\n

The figure came in above expectations: <\/strong>\u201cFebruary\u2019s inflation came higher than our estimate of 12.0% y-o-y and 1.5% m-o-m, and higher than the Reuters poll\u2019s median estimate of 12.0% y-o-y,\u201d HC\u2019s Heba Monir told EnterpriseAM. Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed noted that while pressures were anticipated, the magnitude was unexpected, adding that the jump in education prices also pushed the headline figure up. <\/p>\n

Annual core inflation<\/strong> \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 jumped to 12.7% in February<\/a>, up from 11.2% the month before. Monthly core inflation rose to 3%, almost double the 1.6% seen in January. <\/p>\n

All this came before the outbreak of the regional conflict on 28 February<\/strong>, which has since pushed the EGP down nearly 8.4% against the USD amid sharp hot money outflows and increased import demand. <\/p>\n

Where is inflation heading for the months to come? <\/strong>\u201cGiven the heightened geopolitical tensions and their notable spillover effects, particularly on energy and rising import costs, we believe short-term inflationary pressures are skewed to the upside,\u201d Beltone\u2019s Ahmed Hafez tells us. \u201cWe estimate the monthly momentum could further accelerate to c. 3% in March on the back of the petroleum product price hikes, and as lead indicators suggest a continuation of higher food prices, which could see annual headline inflation rebound to a 9-month high of 14.9%,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

Adding pressure: <\/strong>The government implemented an earlier-than-planned fuel price hike this week after global oil prices saw extreme fluctuations in response to regional escalations. This hike is expected to push March and April\u2019s inflation readings higher as it filters through the economy. A favorable base effect may keep the annual figure \u201cwithin a reasonable range,\u201d HC\u2019s Neamat Choukri anticipates.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the hike<\/strong>, it is expected to generate EGP 40 bn in savings by the end of June and a combined EGP 80-100 bn annually, a government source told us, noting that without the hike, the oil subsidy bill would have ballooned to over EGP 110 bn, far exceeding the budgeted EGP 75 bn. <\/p>\n

And while we\u2019re on the topic of subsidies: <\/strong>A government source in the electricity sector told us that officials are mulling two scenarios in response to rising prices \u2014 a 10-15% price hike for the highest consumption brackets or keeping prices as they are until the end of the fiscal year.<\/p>\n

What can we expect from the CBE? <\/strong>Those we spoke to expect a wait-and-see approach at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in April. \u201cThe central bank is expected to keep the rate unchanged [\u2026] and monitor the impact of fuel price hikes on inflation, particularly if oil prices decline quickly and the conflict lasts only a few more days,\u201d London-based economist Ali Metwally tells us. Thndr\u2019s Ahmed agreed, noting that \u201cmerely pausing the monetary easing cycle effectively constitutes a form of tightening\u201d and highlighting that the CBE's comfortable real interest rate margin provides flexibility for now. <\/p>\n

The risk of a hike:<\/strong> Metwally cautioned that an immediate hike would be \u201ccostly for economic growth,\u201d but warned that if the shock evolves into a broader inflationary wave while FX pressure persists, \u201ctightening could become more likely.\u201d For now, the CBE is expected to rely on other tools, such as liquidity management and market expectations management, to stabilize conditions and mitigate shocks, he added.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prices climbed 2.8% m-o-m, a sharp acceleration from the 1.2% seen in January<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":687468,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[330,104,72,182,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-687467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"844e8c74-7379-4bbe-970f-517794445b75","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/596.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Inflation jumps in February","related_issue":[687462],"teaser":"Prices climbed 2.8% m-o-m, a sharp acceleration from the 1.2% seen in January"},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s inflation accelerates to 13.4% in February, analysts signal a definitive pause in CBE easing cycle - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/11\/egypts-inflation-accelerates-to-13-4-in-february-analysts-signal-a-definitive-pause-in-cbe-easing-cycle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s inflation accelerates to 13.4% in February, analysts signal a definitive pause in CBE easing cycle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prices climbed 2.8% m-o-m, a sharp acceleration from the 1.2% seen in January\" \/>\n<meta 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