{"id":687420,"date":"2026-03-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=687420"},"modified":"2026-03-10T23:41:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T23:41:31","slug":"inflation-surges-in-feb-as-fuel-hikes-fx-volatility-pressure-fy-2025-26-budget-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/10\/inflation-surges-in-feb-as-fuel-hikes-fx-volatility-pressure-fy-2025-26-budget-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation surges in Feb as fuel hikes, FX volatility pressure FY 2025\/26 budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good afternoon, friends, and happy hump day.<\/strong> It\u2019s another unsurprisingly busy afternoon in the press, and we\u2019ve got the rundown for you below. Also in today\u2019s issue: we break down what Anthropic suing the Pentagon means for the future of AI autonomy, and check out Tabali and Buoy\u2019s suhoor experience. <\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf19 So, when do we eat?<\/strong> Maghrib prayers are at 6pm in the capital, and you\u2019ll have until 4:44am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY TODAY-<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udccd Egypt\u2019s urban inflation surged to 13.4% y-o-y in February, up 1.9 percentage <\/strong>points from <\/strong>January<\/a><\/strong>,<\/strong> signaling an acceleration well above market expectations<\/strong>, as food, beverages, and housing costs climbed sharply ahead of the recent regional escalation, which has since pushed the EGP down nearly 8.4% against the USD amid hot money outflows and rising import demand. <\/p>\n

The readings hit the tape just as the Madbouly Cabinet implemented an earlier-than-planned fuel price hike to protect the FY 2025\/26 budget<\/strong>, which is expected to generate EGP 40 bn in savings by year-end and EGP 80-100 bn annually, preventing the petroleum subsidy bill from doubling, a government source told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

While March and April are expected to see higher monthly prints as energy costs filter through<\/strong>, the CBE is widely anticipated to maintain a wait-and-see approach in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. London-based economist Ali Metwally notes that while a rate hike would be \u201ccostly for growth,\u201d a pivot toward tightening remains likely if the current inflationary wave and FX pressures persist.<\/p>\n

^^ We\u2019ll have more on this story in tomorrow\u2019s edition of EnterpriseAM.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf10 Oil prices sank<\/strong> 7%<\/strong> this morning \u2014 retreating from a three-year high \u2014 <\/strong>as US President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could soon end. <\/strong>Trump later threatened more strikes on Tehran if the country attempted to halt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures were down almost 7% to USD 92.2 per barrel, while WTI dropped by a similar margin to USD 88.4 per barrel, as of the time of publication. Saudi oil giant Aramco said there would be \u201ccatastrophic consequences\u201d if the war continued to disrupt oil flows through Hormuz.<\/p>\n

^^Read more on: Bloomberg<\/a> and Reuters here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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