{"id":685197,"date":"2026-02-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/11\/egypts-inflation-eases-in-january-clearing-the-path-for-rate-cut-tomorrow\/"},"modified":"2026-02-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T00:00:00","slug":"egypts-inflation-eases-in-january-clearing-the-path-for-rate-cut-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/11\/egypts-inflation-eases-in-january-clearing-the-path-for-rate-cut-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s inflation eases in January, clearing the path for rate cut tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annua<\/strong>l urban inflation<\/strong> stood at 11.9% in January<\/strong>, marking its lowest level since September and a 0.4 percentage point drop from December<\/a>, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. The reading gives us reason to believe the Central Bank of Egypt will move forward with a rate cut when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow to review rates.<\/p>\n

The dip in the headline figure occurred despite an uptick in the prices of food and <\/strong>beverages<\/strong>, which rose 1.9% y-o-y in January \u2014 the sharpest increase in six months \u2014 driven by a jump in vegetables, fruits, fish, and seafood prices.<\/p>\n

This pressure \u201cwas more than offset by weaker energy and core inflation<\/strong>,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. January\u2019s reading came in line with Capital Economics\u2019 forecast of 11.8% and LSEG\u2019s prediction of 11.7%, Swanston noted. Meanwhile, Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena told us that the reading was slightly above his forecast of 11.6% on average, \u201cwhich likely takes a deep 200 bps cut<\/a> off the table.\u201d<\/p>\n

On a monthly basis<\/strong>, inflation rose to 1.2% in January, up from 0.2% the month before, triggered by a 2.3% m-o-m increase in food and beverage prices, specifically a 6.9% m-o-m jump in vegetable prices. Other items in the basket of goods used to measure inflation saw little change in prices m-o-m.<\/p>\n

What about core inflation? <\/strong>Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 fell to 11.2% y-o-y in January from 11.8% the month before, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation came in at 1.2%, up from 0.2% in December.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t rule out a rate cut just yet: <\/strong>Genena believes the CBE still has sufficient room to cut rates by 100 bps, stating that \u201call the underlying factors support this move.\u201d He cited continued deceleration, exchange rate stability, and the EGP\u2019s appreciation against the USD as key drivers that will moderate inflation in the months ahead, particularly for imported production inputs. CI Capital, too, has penciled in a 100 bps rate cut.<\/p>\n

Why a cut is logical:<\/strong> Genena argues that maintaining an unusually wide real interest rate buffer is \u201cno longer logical,\u201d especially given the government\u2019s decision to delay electricity and fuel price hikes and keep basic commodity prices unchanged. He further noted that the economy is entering a 10-11 month window with limited supply-side risks, aside from the early February cigarette price hike, which he expects will be \u201cabsorbed through base effects.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> As inflation concerns cool, the CBE is increasingly emboldened to push ahead with its easing cycle. For the government, the move is critical to providing the Finance Ministry with much-needed breathing room on its debt-service costs. For the private sector, it signals the definitive start of a lower-interest-rate environment.<\/p>\n

Some believe the CBE may decide to stay cautious: <\/strong>\u201cWe believe the CBE might prefer to be more cautious for now,\u201d Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed tells us, citing episodes of Brent price increases due to geopolitical risks, upward pressure on some prices, and a relatively slow net buying of domestic debt by foreigners in the secondary market.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, analysts expect headline inflation to continue its downward path toward <\/strong>the CBE\u2019s target range of 7% (\u00b12%).<\/strong> Looking at the full year, Capital Economics sees room for 600 bps cuts through this year, while Genena is more optimistic, penciling in 600-800 bps of cuts, and Beltone\u2019s Ahmed Hafez sees room for 700 bps in cuts.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly inflation rose to 1.2%, primarily triggered by a 2.3% increase in food and beverage prices<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":685198,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-685197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0a39a5f5-adc9-49a9-a364-3ebd2edb1db3","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/717.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Inflation eases in January, clearing the path for rate cut tomorrow","related_issue":[685189],"teaser":"Monthly inflation rose to 1.2%, primarily triggered by a 2.3% increase in food and beverage prices"},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s inflation eases in January, clearing the path for rate cut tomorrow - 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Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":685197,"position":4},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":685197,"position":5},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=685197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685197\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/685189"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/685198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=685197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=685197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=685197"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=685197"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=685197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}