{"id":685157,"date":"2026-02-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/10\/majority-of-analysts-polled-by-enterpriseam-forecast-rate-cuts-citing-the-end-of-the-central-banks-crisis-management-phase\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T00:00:00","slug":"majority-of-analysts-polled-by-enterpriseam-forecast-rate-cuts-citing-the-end-of-the-central-banks-crisis-management-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/10\/majority-of-analysts-polled-by-enterpriseam-forecast-rate-cuts-citing-the-end-of-the-central-banks-crisis-management-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"Majority of analysts polled by EnterpriseAM forecast rate cuts, citing the end of the central bank's crisis management phase"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egy<\/strong>pt will enter its Monetary Policy Committee meeting <\/strong>on Thursday from a position of strength.<\/strong> After many of the committee\u2019s previous meetings were met with caution on the back of persistent inflation concerns, the consensus among 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM is clear: the country is ready to continue, if not accelerate, its easing cycle.<\/p>\n

Expect a cut of 100-200 bps.<\/strong> Of the analysts we surveyed, nine are calling for an immediate reduction in the overnight deposit rate. Projections range from a cautious 100 bps to a more aggressive 200 bps move, which would bring the deposit rate down from its current 21.00%.<\/p>\n

Many of those we spoke to believe the CBE has successfully moved past the crisis <\/strong>management phase.<\/strong> EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal argues the CBE is now operating from a \u201cposition of strength,\u201d noting that the IMF agreement and ample USD liquidity \u201cend the era of defending the currency with high interest rates.\u201d He expects a 150 bps cut, aligning Egypt with a global easing cycle led by the US Fed to \u201cmaintain competitiveness and ease the burden on the macroeconomy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some analysts believe the disinflationary trend \u2014 <\/strong>if confirmed in today\u2019s January <\/strong>inflation data release<\/strong> \u2014 and EGP stability could lead to a front-loaded cut of 200 bps.<\/strong> Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena expects a 200 bps cut if conditions remain stable. \u201cGod willing, we will see January inflation figures around 11.5%, and the recommended cut will be 200 bps,\u201d he said. Former Banque Misr vice chairman Sahar Al Damati is also forecasting a 200 bps reduction, citing a \u201csignificant improvement in macro indicators\u201d and a strengthening EGP that she believes \u201ccould reach around 45-46 per USD.\u201d<\/p>\n

HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir points out that even with a 150-200 bps cut, Egypt\u2019s real <\/strong>interest rate remains deeply positive <\/strong>\u2014 approaching 9% when adjusted for 12-month forward inflation. As inflation falls faster than nominal interest rates, the real return for a hedge fund or asset manager actually improves even as the CBE cuts. This gives the committee a massive window to lower rates without risking a disorderly exit of foreign portfolio investment.<\/p>\n

Beltone Holding\u2019s Ahmed Hafez anticipates a 100-150 bps cut but warns that timing is <\/strong>\u201calways tricky\u201d<\/strong> due to uncertainty around upcoming administered price adjustments for electricity and tobacco.<\/p>\n

The lone voice for a hold was Thndrs\u2019 Esraa Ahmed, suggesting the CBE may \u201cprefer to <\/strong>study the impact of previous cuts<\/strong>\u201d and the behavior of savers as high-yield certificates mature. She also pointed to seasonal Ramadan pressures and global oil volatility as reasons for caution. London-based economist Ali Metwally expects a gradual path, suggesting a total of 100 bps of cuts over the entire first quarter, rather than a large front-loaded move.<\/p>\n

While the mood is dovish, analysts aren't ignoring the headwinds.<\/strong> Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh warns of the risk of \u201chot money\u201d outflows and a dip in the attractiveness of EGP deposits if rates fall too quickly. Genena also notes that his forecast assumes no sudden geopolitical shocks, \u201cmeaning no sudden tensions in Iran, no missiles fired here or there.\u201d<\/p>\n

With positive real interest rates now firmly in place, policy focus is shifting toward <\/strong>supporting growth and easing the heavy burden of government debt servicing.<\/strong> Analysts broadly expect cumulative rate cuts of at least 600 bps in 2026, with some projections reaching 800 bps over the medium term. Hafez sees a clear path to a 700 bps reduction this year despite near-term noise from the timing of electricity and tobacco price adjustments. Genena has similarly flagged scope for 600-800 bps of cuts, while Abou El Fotouh expects a more measured 300-400 bps reduction over the next six months to support growth without reigniting inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Of the 11 analysts we surveyed, nine are calling for an immediate reduction in the overnight deposit rate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":685158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,72,182,349,724,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-685157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7ba7d0a6-a9a4-4858-92fd-ece156e06a13","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts polled by EnterpriseAM see a clear path for CBE to accelerate rate cuts","related_issue":[685149],"teaser":"Of the 11 analysts we surveyed, nine are calling for an immediate reduction in the overnight deposit rate"},"yoast_head":"\nMajority of analysts polled by EnterpriseAM forecast rate cuts, citing the end of the central bank's crisis management phase - 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A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544742,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/20\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-this-week-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":685157,"position":2},"title":"CBE to raise interest rates this week -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt will likely raise interest rates for the first time in 16 months when it meets this Thursday, a move that the majority of analysts and economists we polled see as significant to curb inflation that has been pushed to a three-year high by the war\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/243.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542992,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/","url_meta":{"origin":685157,"position":3},"title":"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad. All eight analysts and economists we polled expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the benchmark rate at 8.25%, telling us\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ANALYST POLL"","block_context":{"text":"ANALYST POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/analyst-poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/356.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":685157,"position":4},"title":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":609113,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/31\/analysts-split-on-egypt-interest-rate-path-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":685157,"position":5},"title":"Analysts split on Egypt interest rate path ahead of central bank meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts pointed to rate hikes losing their ability as a policy tool to calm inflation as a reason behind their predictions","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/1485.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=685157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685157\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/685149"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/685158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=685157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=685157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=685157"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=685157"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=685157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}