{"id":685032,"date":"2026-02-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/08\/rate-cuts-spark-lending-jump-but-margins-come-under-pressure-sp-global\/"},"modified":"2026-02-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T00:00:00","slug":"rate-cuts-spark-lending-jump-but-margins-come-under-pressure-sp-global","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/08\/rate-cuts-spark-lending-jump-but-margins-come-under-pressure-sp-global\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate cuts spark lending jump, but margins come under pressure -S&#038;P Global"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Egyptian bank lending is projected to <\/strong><strong>jump 25% in 2026<\/strong>, S&P Global said in its latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/article\/egyptian-banking-outlook-2026-banks-will-benefit-from-positive-economic-sentiment-s101666096\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Egyptian Banking Outlook<\/a>. While loan growth is expected to accelerate, outsized profitability is fading as the Central Bank of Egypt continues its monetary easing cycle. Return on equity (ROE) is expected to normalize at 20% by 2026, down sharply from a peak of 39% in 2024.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong>The era of \u201ceasy money\u201d for banks is drawing to a close. Lenders have bolstered their earnings over the last few interest-rate-high years by parking excess liquidity in high-yield government bonds. With the central bank now cutting rates, that low-effort income stream is shrinking, forcing banks back into the more competitive business of offering private-sector corporate loans to defend their margins.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The breakdown<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Growth drivers<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong> S&P expects a recovery in private-sector credit, but government and public-sector borrowing will remain the main engine of loan growth amid persistent funding needs. SMEs are also expected to contribute, even after losing market share over the past two years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Macro tailwinds: <\/strong>The lending rebound is supported by a strengthening macro backdrop. Real GDP growth is forecast to rise to 4.8% in FY 2025-26, up from 4.4% a year earlier, supported by sustained momentum in tourism. Financing conditions are also expected to ease, with interest rates projected to fall to 18% by June 2026 and average inflation seen slowing to 12.1% this year, down from 20.1% in 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Lower rates should support investment by reducing borrowing and production costs<\/strong>, former Industrial Development Bank Chair Maged Fahmy tells EnterpriseAM. \u201cEncouraging investment naturally means expanding bank loan portfolios,\u201d he said, adding that companies are likely to lean more heavily on debt to finance capex.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Asset quality is expected to remain stable<\/strong>, with non-performing loans holding at around 2% over the next 12\u201318 months, down from 2.9% in December 2023. A large and growing deposit base will continue to support liquidity and funding, S&P said, citing strong household deposits, which account for roughly 74% of private-sector deposits.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">ROE to ease, but capital strength offers a cushion<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Profitability to normalize:<\/strong> Returns are set to cool from recent highs, with ROE projected at 20% in 2026, down from an estimated 24% in 2025 and well below the 2024 peak. S&P attributes the decline to narrowing net interest margins as rates fall and funding costs reprice more quickly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The pressure on profitability should be offset by lower credit losses<\/strong>, with the cost of risk expected to ease to 1.3% this year from 2.5% in 2024, alongside strong capital buffers. The sector\u2019s capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.6% as of June 2025, comfortably above the 12.5% regulatory minimum.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Despite the squeeze, Fahmy argues that a slight dip in profitability is a<\/strong><strong> \u201cnatural part of the economic cycle<\/strong>,\u201d given that banks have already amassed significant earnings in recent years by investing in high-yield treasury bills and bonds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Government and public sector borrowing will remain the primary engine of loan growth amid sustained funding needs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":685033,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7350],"tags":[204,271,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-685032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-banking","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7f4c08e2-4b7c-436e-bbe4-f29693b655b0","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1376.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Rate cuts spark lending jump, but margins come under pressure -S&P Global","related_issue":[685025],"teaser":"Government and public sector borrowing will remain the primary engine of loan growth amid sustained funding needs"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The loan will carry an interest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking + Finance&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559444,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/21\/egypts-banks-to-remain-stable-in-2021-moodys\/","url_meta":{"origin":685032,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s banks to remain stable in 2021 -Moody\u2019s","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Egyptian banking system will remain stable in 2021 even as bottom lines \u201ccome under pressure\u201d from rising loan losses and lower interest income, Moody\u2019s Investors Service said in a report yesterday. Bank bottom lines will compare favorably to peers, in part due to the central bank\u2019s decision to freeze\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545636,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/06\/egyptian-banks-arent-likely-to-be-hit-by-fallout-from-russias-war-in-ukraine-sp\/","url_meta":{"origin":685032,"position":2},"title":"Egyptian banks aren\u2019t likely to be hit by fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine \u2013S&#038;P","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Rated Egyptian banks have little direct exposure to Russian and Ukrainian assets, according to an S&P Global Ratings report looking at the impact of the war on the banking sector in eight Middle East and African markets. \u201cWe do not expect the conflict will have significant direct effects on bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/140.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562975,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":685032,"position":3},"title":"Banks may face more pressure in the coming fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian banks could see their interest income squeezed during the coming state fiscal year due to lower interest rates and a potential dip in treasury yields, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday.The sector\u2019s average net interest-margin (NIM) held up remarkably well through 2020, coming in at 4.1% despite the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/179.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565603,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/19\/egypts-banking-sector-likely-second-fastest-growing-in-mena-efg-says-in-earnings-preview\/","url_meta":{"origin":685032,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s banking sector likely second fastest-growing in MENA, EFG says in earnings preview","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Aggregate earnings of Egypt\u2019s listed banks are expected to have grown 10% y-o-y in 1Q2021, reversing a trend of anemic bottomline growth in 2020 as lenders were forced to shore up loan loss provisions last year amid worries over pandemic-linked bad loans, EFG Hermes said in a note to clients\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: BANKING&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: BANKING","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/455.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553911,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/13\/gulf-banking-syndicate-disburses-usd-3-bn-loan-to-egypt-govt\/","url_meta":{"origin":685032,"position":5},"title":"Gulf banking syndicate disburses USD 3 bn loan to Egypt gov\u2019t","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Gulf banking syndicate that agreed last month to lend USD 3 bn to the Egyptian government has disbursed the funding, Al Shorouk reports, citing unnamed sources. 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