{"id":684911,"date":"2026-02-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/16\/markets-are-pricing-trump-volatility-over-macro-indicators-into-the-worlds-reserve-currency\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T00:00:00","slug":"markets-are-pricing-trump-volatility-over-macro-indicators-into-the-worlds-reserve-currency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/16\/markets-are-pricing-trump-volatility-over-macro-indicators-into-the-worlds-reserve-currency\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets are pricing Trump volatility over macro indicators into the world's reserve currency"},"content":{"rendered":"

It appears that the greenback has decoupled from economic fundamentals<\/strong>, morphing from a currency driven by growth and interest rates into one reacting to the volatility of the Trump administration, the Financial Times<\/a> \u2019 Katie Martin argues in an opinion piece. A strange new economic reality for the world\u2019s reserve currency is starting to appear, as while US growth forecasts climbed and bond yields remained elevated this year \u2014 all data points that should under normal circumstances point to a stronger USD \u2014 the greenback is down nearly 2% YTD against a basket of its peers. <\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>For the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC, this is a direct threat to the stability of the USD peg. Because of their currencies being tethered to the greenback, they are effectively importing US political risk into the heart of their finances. As global asset managers now shift to maintain US stock holdings, while selling the USD, the Gulf could see its local purchasing power and fiscal reserves eroded by political drama all the way in Washington that has nothing to do with the economic health of the region.<\/p>\n

Recently <\/strong>released US job data added to suspicions that macroeconomic reality and the <\/strong>currency are disconnected in a way never seen before.<\/strong> Despite expectations of a soaring USD following January job creation numbers that were double what they expected, the greenback remained flat. Summarizing this broader disconnect, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow proclaimed on his Substack<\/a> that \u201cWe\u2019re entering a new era. US growth will boom this year. But the USD will fall.\u201d<\/p>\n

But a weak USD is seen as a good thing by some in the White House<\/strong>, potentially including Trump himself, who described the USD reaching its lowest point in four years last month as \u201cdoing great\u201d<\/a> in comments to reporters. Some in the Trump administration, including Trade Policy Advisor Robert Lighthizer and to a lesser extent Vice President JD Vance, argue that a strong greenback has long dampened local manufacturing and export potential in the states.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets are starting off the week in the red, reacting to the Japanese economy missing growth expectations during the fourth quarter of 2025. The economy grew 0.1% during the three-month period, well below expectations of 0.4%, marking a reversal from the contraction recorded during the previous quarter. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52,308<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.6% (YTD: +25.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 46.71<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 46.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 46.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 46.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,229<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,636<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +6.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,730<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +11.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,836<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,446<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +5.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,985<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +3.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 67.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5,046<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 68,918<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5% (YTD: -21.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: +37.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 3.6% at <\/strong>yesterday\u2019s<\/strong> close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 8.4 bn (40.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Telecom Egypt (+19.0%), ADIB (+8.6%), and Heliopolis Housing (+7.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Ibnsina Pharma (-2.1%), Egypt Aluminum (-1.9%), and Orascom Investment Holding (-0.8%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The greenback\u2019s safe-haven premium faces a political reality check<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":684912,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[82,102,72,119,2234,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-684911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-bonds","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1eef8595-6640-4986-b60e-43a24c9f5454","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/986.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The greenback is breaking up with economic reality","related_issue":[684890],"teaser":"The greenback\u2019s safe-haven premium faces a political reality check"},"yoast_head":"\nMarkets are pricing Trump volatility over macro indicators into the world's reserve currency - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/16\/markets-are-pricing-trump-volatility-over-macro-indicators-into-the-worlds-reserve-currency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Markets are pricing Trump volatility over macro indicators into the world's reserve currency\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The greenback\u2019s safe-haven premium faces a political reality check\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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in 2022","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/820.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590214,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/16\/slowing-us-inflation-is-bringing-the-greenback-back-down-to-earth\/","url_meta":{"origin":684911,"position":1},"title":"Slowing US inflation is bringing the greenback back down to earth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"And that could be good news for emerging markets","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET 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