{"id":684850,"date":"2026-02-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/04\/non-oil-private-sector-activity-slips-back-into-the-red-but-output-hits-longest-expansion-streak-since-2020\/"},"modified":"2026-02-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T00:00:00","slug":"non-oil-private-sector-activity-slips-back-into-the-red-but-output-hits-longest-expansion-streak-since-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/04\/non-oil-private-sector-activity-slips-back-into-the-red-but-output-hits-longest-expansion-streak-since-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Non-oil private sector activity slips back into the red, but output hits longest expansion streak since 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Egypt saw its non-oil private sector <\/strong><strong>slip back into the red for the first time in <\/strong><strong>four months, but it\u2019s not all bad news. <\/strong>The country\u2019s headline figure in January slipped 0.4 percentage points to 49.8, positioning the sector \u2014 but hopefully not too, our optimism \u2014 just below the all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth and just above its long-run average, according to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/230.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">S&P Global\u2019s latest Purchasing Managers Index report (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>On the plus side, output rose for the third consecutive month<\/strong>, marking the longest streak of expansion since late 2020. This was supported by stronger demand from abroad, though overall new orders slipped slightly compared to December. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>With output rising but new work falling, firms focussed on clearing backlogs at the<\/strong><strong> quickest rate in nearly three years. <\/strong>This increase in spare capacity led companies to leave positions vacant, resulting in the largest decline in employment since October 2030. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>In a positive turn, cost pressures softened, with total input costs rising at their<\/strong><strong> joint-slowest pace in ten months.<\/strong> This allowed firms to reduce their selling prices for the first time since mid-2020, a move intended to stimulate client spending.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>The contraction in the headline PMI is a technicality in many ways. While the 49.8 reading suggests a slight dip, the index remains significantly above its long-run average and consistent with healthy annual GDP growth. The pivot from five years of relentless price hikes to the first actual drop in selling charges since July 2020 is the clearest signal yet that the private sector is moving from a survival stance to be focused on being competitive when it comes to prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The drop in price indices is fueling expectations for an aggressive monetary easing <\/strong><strong>cycle.<\/strong> \u201cBoth the input and output price components fell to their lowest since 2020, adding to the signs of disinflation and supporting our view that the Central Bank of Egypt will cut interest rates by 700 bps, to 13.00%, this year,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.capitaleconomics.com\/publications\/middle-east-north-africa-rapid-response\/middle-east-north-africa-pmis-jan-2026\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">note<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Non-oil companies remain positive about the next 12 months<\/strong>, but the level of optimism is described as \u201cmarginal: as firms maintain a cautious stance of future activity levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The country\u2019s headline PMI figure in January slipped 0.4 percentage points to 49.8<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":684851,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[72,185,1653,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-684850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-pmi","tag-sp","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"43c3b68c-5243-4571-91eb-88998619571e","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/1603.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Don\u2019t let the 49.8 PMI headline fool you as output continues to rise","related_issue":[684845],"teaser":"The country\u2019s headline PMI figure in January slipped 0.4 percentage points to 49.8"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Business activity fell at a slightly slower pace during the month amid signs of softening inflation, though the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/144.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565364,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/private-sector-business-contracts-again-but-the-outlook-is-rosier\/","url_meta":{"origin":684850,"position":1},"title":"Private sector business contracts again, but the outlook is rosier","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector continued to contract for the fourth consecutive month in March, but optimism reached new highs as the vaccine rollout picked up steam in recent weeks, according to IHS Markit purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) figures (pdf). The purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) gauge dropped to 48.0 last month,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/333.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545629,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/06\/inflation-hits-private-sector-activity-in-march\/","url_meta":{"origin":684850,"position":2},"title":"Inflation hits private sector activity in March","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Activity in Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector saw its sharpest decline in 21 months in March as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the devaluation of the EGP hit output and new orders, according to S&P Global\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) survey (pdf). Rising inflation and slowing demand caused activity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/136.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553482,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/06\/rising-inflation-weighs-on-private-sector-activity-in-november\/","url_meta":{"origin":684850,"position":3},"title":"Rising inflation weighs on private sector activity in November","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s non-oil business activity shrank \u201cmoderately\u201d during November, with a closely followed gauge of business conditions unchanged from the month prior as supply chain bottlenecks and inflationary pressures continued to weigh on private sector firms. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) (pdf) remained at 48.7 last month, marking the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/229.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/06\/nearly-there\/","url_meta":{"origin":684850,"position":4},"title":"Nearly there","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector was a dog\u2019s hair away from expansion in June, as conditions showed signs of stabilizing at the end of 1H2021, according to IHS Markit\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index survey (pdf). The PMI gauge rose to 49.9, from 48.6 in May, only 0.1 shy of the 50.0 mark\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/337.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589633,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/06\/the-pmi-was-in-contraction-territory-again-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":684850,"position":5},"title":"The PMI was in contraction territory again in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The PMI rose to 49.1 from 47.8 in May","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/129.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684850\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/684845"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684850"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=684850"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=684850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}