{"id":684534,"date":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/27\/central-bank-of-egypt-has-room-to-cut-interest-rates-500-600-bps-in-2026-says-deutsche-bank\/"},"modified":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","slug":"central-bank-of-egypt-has-room-to-cut-interest-rates-500-600-bps-in-2026-says-deutsche-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/27\/central-bank-of-egypt-has-room-to-cut-interest-rates-500-600-bps-in-2026-says-deutsche-bank\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank of Egypt has room to cut interest rates 500-600 bps in 2026, says Deutsche Bank"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central B<\/strong>ank of Egypt (CBE) has room for another 500-600 basis points of rate cuts this <\/strong>year<\/strong>, Deutsche Bank (DB) says in a new research note seen by EnterpriseAM \u2014 and the risks are tilted toward even deeper easing if fiscal reforms pick up pace or global conditions turn sour.<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> The call (just) puts DB at the more dovish end of expectations for the CBE\u2019s 2026 trajectory. Some 725 bps of cumulative cuts last year brought the policy rate to 20%, and the bulge bracket bank sees rates falling to the 14-15% range by the end of this year while keeping real rates in positive territory.<\/p>\n

Look for the CBE to go for another 100 bps cut at its 12 February meeting<\/strong>, DB economist Samira Kalla writes. The timing matters: The meeting falls before Ramadan begins on 18 February, and seasonal imports are already in stock. That could give the central bank a window to ease before any seasonal price pressures kick in. Inflation was steady at 12.3% y-o-y in December, and the bank forecasts an average of around 11% for 2026 \u2014 still above the CBE\u2019s target of 7% (\u00b1 2 percentage points) by 4Q, but on a clear downward trend.<\/p>\n

What could make the CBE cut faster? <\/strong>If the Madbouly government pushes ahead faster with reforms \u2014 or if geopolitics or the global economy were to take a turn for the worse. (That\u2019s economist-speak for: another war = rate cut.)<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank sees the economy growing at a 5% clip in 2026-27<\/strong>, in line with the CBE\u2019s forecast.<\/p>\n

Look for manufacturing to be the star once again: <\/strong>The manufacturing sector grew 15% in the first quarter of last year, Kalla writes. Regular readers of EnterpriseAM will have seen a flood of inbound investment in manufacturing, buoyed by improvements in everything from the macro climate to the customs bureaucracy. Standouts include motor vehicles (+50%), furniture (+34%), pharma (+19%), and ready-made garments (+17%). Outside of manufacturing, ICT added 14.5%, tourism 13.8%, and financial services 10.2%.<\/p>\n

Also in the mix: <\/strong>The Suez Canal has finally returned to growth. Meanwhile, hydrocarbons remain a drag, but the decline is slowing as activity resumes and new gas field discoveries come online.<\/p>\n

On inflation risks, DB flags potential FX pass-through<\/strong> from capital outflows, pending hikes in electricity and tobacco prices, and food price volatility thanks to (you guessed it) climate change. Lower-than-expected food price increases and any delay in phasing out energy subsidies could help push inflation lower than forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CBE could cut even faster if the cabinet picks up the pace of reform \u2014 and may have no choice but to do so if global conditions turn sour<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":684535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[2203,72,349,724,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-684534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6459638b-d500-4d15-8309-01fa03133bcd","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/22.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Deutsche Bank sees 500-600 bps of rate cuts in 2026 \u2014 with room for more","related_issue":[684520],"teaser":"CBE could cut even faster if the cabinet picks up the pace of reform \u2014 and may have no choice but to do so if global conditions turn sour"},"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank of Egypt has room to cut interest rates 500-600 bps in 2026, says Deutsche Bank - 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The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/egypts-economy-to-grow-at-a-3-5-clip-in-fy2020-2021-deutsche-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":684534,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at a 3.5% clip in FY2020-2021 -Deutsche Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy could grow at a 3.5% clip this fiscal year, supported by government spending, an expansion in the ICT and energy sectors, and growth in net exports, Deutsche Bank said in a report cited by the local press. Meanwhile, construction and non-oil industries are getting the support they need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":600595,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/04\/deutsche-bank-sees-potential-rate-cut-in-march-but-sees-egypt-missing-fiscal-deficit-targets-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":684534,"position":2},"title":"Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March, but sees Egypt missing fiscal deficit targets this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to keep interest rates on hold throughout 1Q2019, but a \u201c100 bps rate cut cannot be ruled out\u201d in March, Deutsche Bank said in a research note out on Friday. \u201cGiven the upside risks to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":684534,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":676015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/23\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-following-october-uptick-in-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":684534,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates unchanged following October uptick in inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 November 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The committee said the decision reflects its assessment of the latest inflation developments and outlook since its last meeting","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":684534,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684534\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/684520"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684534"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=684534"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=684534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}