{"id":684211,"date":"2026-03-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=684211"},"modified":"2026-03-04T04:21:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T04:21:05","slug":"risk-off-mode-triggers-a-strategic-pivot-for-egx-portfolio-managers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/04\/risk-off-mode-triggers-a-strategic-pivot-for-egx-portfolio-managers\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk-off mode triggers a strategic pivot for EGX portfolio managers"},"content":{"rendered":"

The EGX30 sprint to 60k is likely to take longer than some market participants initially expected<\/strong> as market sentiment shifts to \u201cneutral\u201d on Egyptian equities, marking a retreat from one of the year\u2019s most ambitious targets. Al Ahly Pharos research head Hany Genena tells us that while the investment bank previously held a target of 60k \u2014 upgraded from an original 50k \u2014 the current landscape requires a change in posture. <\/p>\n

Al Ahly Pharos is now advising clients to \u201chold incremental buying activity\u201d<\/strong> and move to \u201cincrease the cash component in your portfolio.\u201d This shift isn\u2019t just a reaction to regional tensions or local volatility, but a response to a fundamental change in the global landscape where, for the first time in a long period, the USD is regaining its role as a safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk to Egypt\u2019s capital market is two-fold<\/strong>,\u201d Rumble Chief Equity Strategist Amr El Alfy tells us. El Alfy notes that a \u201crisk-off mode will mean foreign investors will likely exit emerging markets, including Egypt, if tensions linger,\u201d while simultaneously, \u201chigher risk premiums across the globe will mean lower valuations for both stocks and fixed-income instruments.\u201d This pressure is already manifesting in the behavior of foreign and Arab investors, who have turned into net sellers. <\/p>\n

El Alfy identifies two distinct cohorts driving this exit<\/strong> \u2014 those who view the conflict as short-lived and may remain in \u201cEGP-denominated [banknotes] or Treasuries,\u201d and a second group that may \u201copt to exit the market altogether for the time being\u201d to park capital in \u201cgold or US Treasuries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both strategists agree that regional alternatives offer little protection in the current<\/strong> climate. <\/strong>Genena notes that \u201cSaudi Arabia is not a safe haven at all,\u201d adding that despite efforts to diversify, it remains an \u201coil-dominated economy.\u201d El Alfy concurs, stating that \u201call GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, are in the line of fire during this conflict.\u201d He warns that even if oil prices remain elevated, the \u201cclosure of the Strait of Hormuz will limit Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil exports, depriving it [of] any windfall.\u201d This leaves investors with few regional hedges, as even the Gulf\u2019s largest markets are likely to \u201cfeel the brunt of investors turning into a risk-off mode.\u201d<\/p>\n

El Alfy expects asset and portfolio managers to \u201cunderweight the market\u2019s high-beta<\/strong> stocks\u201d<\/strong> and pivot toward \u201clow-volatility stocks to ride the current volatile wave.\u201d Genena similarly suggests that those who must remain in the market should focus on equities \u201cclassified as blue chips [...] large caps and liquid and financially stable.\u201d In the fixed-income space, the preference is shifting toward \u201cshort-duration instruments,\u201d particularly if the market believes the CBE will \u201cpause its monetary easing cycle in the coming MPC meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the immediate gloom, there\u2019s a shared expectation that the current period of<\/strong> high friction <\/strong>will be relatively brief<\/strong>, with Genena anticipating it to end within \u201ctwo, three, four weeks.\u201d Once the geopolitical dust settles, he anticipates a dramatic shift in energy markets. Due to a massive global oversupply of \u201c3 to 4 mn barrels\u201d per day, Genena expects oil prices to \u201ccrash, not fall\u201d after the tensions are over. <\/p>\n

For an energy-importing nation like Egypt, this eventual collapse in crude prices would<\/strong> provide significant relief<\/strong>, allowing the country to \u201cmaintain its momentum throughout the rest of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Al Ahly Pharos is now advising clients to \u201chold incremental buying activity\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":684212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7303],"tags":[102,68,72,12525],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-684211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-capital-markets","tag-capital-markets","tag-egx","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-politics","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a9a184cf-cf0b-46f6-bf36-ae820d1c570f","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/1417.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The EGX is facing a risk-off wall","related_issue":[684201],"teaser":"Al Ahly Pharos is now advising clients to \u201chold incremental buying activity\u201d"},"yoast_head":"\nRisk-off mode triggers a strategic pivot for EGX portfolio managers - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/04\/risk-off-mode-triggers-a-strategic-pivot-for-egx-portfolio-managers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk-off mode triggers a strategic pivot for EGX portfolio managers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Al Ahly Pharos is now advising clients to \u201chold incremental buying activity\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/166.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582158,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/efg-hermes-tops-egx-brokerage-for-second-month-of-the-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":684211,"position":2},"title":"EFG Hermes tops EGX brokerage for second month of the year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes once again took the top spot in the EGX\u2019s brokerage league table in February with a market share of 19.1% according to EGX figures (pdf). Rounding out the top three were CI Capital (6.8%) and Arab African International Securities (5.0%). Al Ahly Pharos Securities Brokerage, Pioneers Securities and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/EGX-1600px-1.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546193,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/08\/ci-capital-dethrones-efg-hermes-to-top-the-egx-brokerage-league-table\/","url_meta":{"origin":684211,"position":3},"title":"CI Capital dethrones EFG Hermes to top the EGX brokerage league table","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CI Capital topped the EGX\u2019s brokerage league table in April, with a market share of 43.9%, according to figures from the EGX (pdf), marking the first time in months that EFG Hermes has been pipped to the top spot. Rounding out the top five were Al Ahly Pharos (29.4%), EFG\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549108,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/04\/efg-hermes-dominates-the-brokerage-league-table-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":684211,"position":4},"title":"EFG Hermes dominates the brokerage league table, again","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes once again topped the EGX\u2019s brokerage league table in August, with a market share of 28.2%, according to figures from the EGX (pdf). Rounding out the top five were Al Ahly Pharos (19.7%), CI Capital (6.6%), Beltone (2.9%), and Mubasher (2.5%). EFG has held the top spot every\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584610,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/03\/efg-hermes-tops-egxs-brokerage-table-in-march\/","url_meta":{"origin":684211,"position":5},"title":"EFG Hermes tops EGX\u2019s brokerage table in March","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG is three for three in 2023","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/59.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684211"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":684255,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684211\/revisions\/684255"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/684201"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684211"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=684211"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=684211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}