{"id":683986,"date":"2026-03-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=683986"},"modified":"2026-03-03T09:02:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T09:02:28","slug":"a-nasty-mix-of-factors-is-putting-pressure-on-the-price-of-energy-and-thats-bad-for-egypts-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/03\/a-nasty-mix-of-factors-is-putting-pressure-on-the-price-of-energy-and-thats-bad-for-egypts-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"A nasty mix of factors is putting pressure on the price of energy \u2014 and that\u2019s bad for Egypt\u2019s budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil touching the psychologically important USD 100 per-barrel mark is <\/strong>looking more possible with each passing day<\/strong>, with JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts warning in a note that Gulf producers only have 25 days before they run out of storage space. Wood Mackenzie said in a note<\/a> that prices could exceed the USD 100 mark \u201cif tanker flows are not quickly restored,\u201d while Bernstein sees Brent crude reaching USD 150 in the event of a prolonged conflict.<\/p>\n

Adding urgency to the warning was a drone strike on Aramco\u2019s Ras Tanura facilities, which <\/strong>halted <\/strong>operations at Saudi Arabia\u2019s largest oil refinery <\/strong>in what appears to be the first direct strike on oil infrastructure in this round of hostilities.<\/p>\n

The situation \u201chas already moved from geopolitical noise to actual impact<\/strong>,\u201d Rabobank Energy Strategist Florence Schmit tells EnterpriseAM, as energy infrastructure across the region has been targeted and Israel has already curtailed gas production as a precaution.<\/p>\n

With the Hormuz Strait effectively closed, there are few other options to get output to <\/strong>global markets<\/strong>, with the Saudi East-West pipeline moving 5 mn bbl \/ d \u2014 equivalent to just a quarter of what usually passes through the strait.<\/p>\n

The cost of LNG and our reliance on it also moved up policymakers\u2019 worry list<\/strong> after QatarEnergy announced<\/a> yesterday it has stopped producing LNG. The decision came after an Iranian drone hit Ras Laffan, the world\u2019s largest export facility, which produces some 20% of global supply.<\/p>\n

As disruptions continue, the mismatch between demand and supply could send <\/strong>prices upward. <\/strong>\u201cIt\u2019s a matter of the duration of this crisis,\u201d Wideangle LNG Consulting Director Jean-Christian Heintz tells us. \u201cAs a rule of thumb, if we are talking about one week of shortage, you see that this already translates into 2% of annual LNG production.\u201d<\/p>\n

LNG flow disruptions are expected to \u201creignite competition between Asia and Europe for <\/strong>available cargoes<\/strong>,\u201d according to Wood Mackenzie Gas and LNG Research Vice President Massimo Di Odoardo. <\/p>\n

Israel is making things worse for us: <\/strong>Its decision to cut off gas supplies to Egypt will pile on pressure at the same time as the 24 LNG shipments from QatarEnergy we have scheduled for the summer<\/a> are uncertain. That could push the Madbouly government to try to secure additional LNG shipments \u2014 likely at much higher prices than it had originally penciled in.<\/p>\n

Shipping rates for all types of goods and the end-cost for consumers are also set to<\/strong> rise<\/strong>, with shipping lines facing higher fuel costs \u2014 which usually account for 40% of total costs \u2014 and war-risk premiums doubling to 0.5% coming on top of a 15-20 days longer transit around the Cape of Good Hope while lines avoid the Suez Canal. There are also limited overland corridors able to handle anywhere near the amount of TEU capacity and diverted traffic.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>The disruption is an immediate and unbudgeted inflationary shock. The doubling of war-risk premiums for shipping and the extension of transit times mean that the landed cost of everything from grain to industrial components is set to spike. For the Madbouly government, the crisis creates a pincer move: we\u2019re bidding on the expensive global spot market for LNG to keep the lights on, even as Suez Canal revenues face a sustained hit from diverted traffic.<\/p>\n

To keep energy supplies stable, the Oil Ministry is working to import three mazut <\/strong>shipments to make up for a shortfall in Israeli gas<\/strong>, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. Plans are also underway to diversify power generation by relying on both fuel oil and natural gas to keep stations running, our source added.<\/p>\n

No gas i<\/strong>s leaving Idku: <\/strong>The state has pressed pause on LNG shipments flowing out of the Idku liquefaction facility, Asharq Business<\/a> reports, citing what it says is an unnamed government official. Shell and Petronas usually receive some 350 mmcf\/d of LNG for export from the Idku facility, the source said, adding that the last shipment out of Idku was at the end of February.<\/p>\n

A precautionary move:<\/strong> A government crisis committee has suspended natural gas export approvals for Shell, Petronas, and Eni through April, prioritizing domestic energy security, a senior government official told us, noting that further steps to safeguard foreign exchange markets and tighten regulatory oversight are also expected.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gulf producers only have 25 days before they run out of storage space<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":683987,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7207],"tags":[93,72,145,8835,6984,91,7103],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-683986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-logistics","tag-maritime","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-suez-canal","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9fc19a73-dd93-4bb5-97ca-e50125b43f32","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/144.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Between the Hormuz Strait and a hard place","related_issue":[683978],"teaser":"Gulf producers only have 25 days before they run out of storage space"},"yoast_head":"\nA nasty mix of factors is putting pressure on the price of energy \u2014 and that\u2019s bad for Egypt\u2019s budget - 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