{"id":683463,"date":"2026-03-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=683463"},"modified":"2026-03-02T14:26:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T14:26:57","slug":"economic-impacts-of-the-war-on-iran-mount-as-de-facto-closure-of-hormuz-risks-sending-oil-toward-the-triple-digits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/02\/economic-impacts-of-the-war-on-iran-mount-as-de-facto-closure-of-hormuz-risks-sending-oil-toward-the-triple-digits\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic impacts of the war on Iran mount as de facto closure of Hormuz risks sending oil toward the triple digits"},"content":{"rendered":"

Been there, bought the T-shirt: <\/strong>If nothing else, the actions of Egyptian policymakers yesterday made one thing clear: We\u2019ve finally learned how to handle a crisis. A few short years ago, an event like the war in the Gulf would have seen quiet verbal instructions relayed by telephone to bankers to slow exit queues and shed reserves in a panicked bid to prop up the EGP. <\/p>\n

Yesterday, the CBE and the Finance Ministry had a simple (if unwritten) message for the <\/strong>market: <\/strong>We\u2019ve been here before, we know what works and what doesn\u2019t, and we\u2019re going to do the right thing. It\u2019s the second time in less than a year that the central bank, the Finance Ministry, and the banking system have managed a global risk-off with aplomb, and folks \u2014 we\u2019re here for it.<\/p>\n

The EGP slid 1.7% against the greenback yesterday as banks opened to <\/strong>execute exit orders<\/strong> that saw the EGP slip to nearly 49 against the USD. Outflows kept up the pace as none of the US, Israel, or Iran showed signs they would be putting down their weapons anytime soon. <\/p>\n

Foreign investors exited positions in domestic debt worth some USD 1.3 bn yesterday<\/strong>, which led to interbank FX volumes clocking in at USD 600 mn by the end of trading, up from USD 320 mn last Thursday and USD 180 mn a week earlier, a bank insider told us. While outflows are expected to continue in the near term, trading activity could begin to stabilize toward the end of the week, our source suggests.<\/p>\n

The queue to exit has been orderly and bankers are treating it as a \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d <\/strong>scenario<\/strong> \u2014 very much a replay of the way the market handled outflows in the run-up to (and wake of) Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d selloff last year.<\/p>\n

We spoke yesterday with a who\u2019s who of bankers and senior government officials, and <\/strong>their message was clear: This <\/strong>storm will pass. <\/strong>\u201cThe current state of exits is expected given the political tensions,\u201d a senior banker told EnterpriseAM, adding that \u201chot money is sensitive to political unrest, but returns quickly with signs of stability.\u201d Officials we spoke to also stressed that net international reserves remain strong \u2014 and emphasized that the exchange rate is being allowed to move to absorb the shock. And it doesn\u2019t hurt that some USD 2.3 bn from the IMF is expected to land in state coffers this week.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- The Finance Ministry has a message for the market: <\/strong>It\u2019s business as usual<\/strong> for its local-currency borrowing calendar as it gauges market appetite. \u201cWe will not accept exaggerated yields<\/strong>. A risk premium is expected, but we may reduce the volume of accepted bids until conditions calm down,\u201d a government official involved in the issuance of public debt told us, signaling that the government is not in a position to have to accept any price.<\/p>\n

Plans for international offerings remain on track for April<\/strong>, with the source noting it is \u201ctoo early to make a decision\u201d on any delays given the stable underlying economic indicators. <\/p>\n

\n

We\u2019re keeping a close eye on oil prices<\/p>\n

Pundits are still suggesting there\u2019s a risk that oil rockets past USD 100 \/ bbl <\/strong>as Iran looks to choke the flow of crude out of the Gulf. Iran\u2019s Tasnim News Agency claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is \u201ceffectively\u201d closed and some ships reported<\/a> receiving a radio broadcast on Saturday \u2014 reportedly from the Iranian navy \u2014 instructing them to leave the waterway as passage is banned.<\/p>\n

Brent crude is at USD 75 this morning even after three ships were struck in the region <\/strong>yesterday <\/strong>\u2014 the first reported<\/a> maritime attacks of the conflict so far. Attacks have so far been limited to the Arabian Gulf, with the Houthis yet to restart attacks on passing vessels in the Bab El Mandeb strait leading to the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n

Oil tankers seem to have stopped moving through Hormuz<\/strong>, with roughly 240 vessels stopping near the chokepoint \u2014 most around Iran\u2019s Bandar Abbas port, according to S&P Global<\/a>. Around 130 of those ships were carrying cargo, but none were loaded with crude.<\/p>\n

You can pump it out of the ground, but can you get it to market? <\/strong>While some think a pledge by Opec+ to boost output<\/a> by as much as 206k bbl \/ d starting next month could offer relief, there\u2019s a big catch: the majority of the group\u2019s output comes from nations that are almost entirely reliant on the Hormuz Strait to deliver to the global market. \u201cIn such a scenario, the constraint is not upstream supply capacity but export routes and maritime transit,\u201d Rystad Energy\u2019s Jorge Leon tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Keep the gas flowing: <\/strong>To ensure supply keeps up with demand at home, the Oil Ministry is moving to increase LNG bookings by an additional 20 shipments for some USD 1-1.5 bn, starting with 15 shipments this month, after Israel shut off<\/a> 1.1 bcf\/d of Egypt-bound gas, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

The <\/strong>Madbouly government is<\/strong> actively studying all potential scenarios regarding the Strait <\/strong>of Hormuz<\/strong>, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said<\/a> during the annual iftar hosted by the Armed Forces. He also touched on the closure\u2019s impact on the Suez Canal: \u201cWe have been affected since [the start of Israel\u2019s war on Gaza] and maritime traffic through the Canal has not returned to its normal course, resulting in financial losses.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cThe cost of [<\/strong>covering<\/strong>] ships, containers, and crews, in addition to the refusal of some <\/strong>international ins. companies to [<\/strong>cover<\/strong>] war risks<\/strong>, will put pressure on global trade in the coming period,\u201d former Suez Canal Authority chairman and Suez Chamber of Shipping head Abdel Qader Gaballah told EnterpriseAM. \u201cFurthermore, exchange rate fluctuations and rising oil prices will all contribute to a significant wave of inflation,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Ins. premiums are lurching upward:<\/strong> A ship with USD 100 mn worth of goods, which used to pay roughly USD 250k per voyage, will now need to cough up USD 375k, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

Most major shipping lines are already steering clear of the Suez Canal<\/strong> \u2014 in the weeks leading up to the conflict, most had been simply testing the waters, Port Said Chamber of Shipping head Adel Lamai tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s goal right now is to cause \u201cenough ambiguity to create a de facto chokepoint <\/strong>shock,\u201d <\/strong>Wolfgang Lehmacher, a supply chain and logistics strategist, told EnterpriseAM. Whether you\u2019re talking geopolitical risk or investor confidence, that blurs the line between \u201cnormal\u201d tension and crisis, forcing a persistent risk premium into energy contracts, shipping equities, and port projects linked to Gulf exports, Lehmacher added.<\/p>\n

\n

The EGX and the futures market opened to a turbulent morning on the first day of trading<\/p>\n

The EGX30 closed down 2.5% yesterday at just under 48.0k points<\/strong>, according to the EGX<\/a>daily bulletin (pdf)<\/a>, stripping some EGP 73 bn worth of market cap. Traders sent the benchmark down 5.6% at the opening bell before buying back in. <\/p>\n

Foreign investors were net sellers in just about every sector <\/strong>except defensive plays including healthcare, education, F&B, utilities, and industrials. Banking shares and tech, media, and telecommunications stocks were hardest hit in the selloff. <\/p>\n

The quick rally after the initial selloff is a signal that the market expects a short conflict<\/strong>, CI Capital head of research Monsef Morsy tells EnterpriseAM. He notes that while the initial drop was sharp, the fact that stocks were picked up toward the end of the session suggests investors believe the sell-off will be \u201cvery short-lived.\u201d <\/p>\n

The timing of the derivatives launch proved critical in preventing a total rout<\/strong>, with 52 contracts opened across June and September index futures. \u201cI believe today\u2019s opening drop of 5.6% was an acute panic response to an extraordinary event,\u201d Randa Hamed, managing director of Okaz Asset Management, tells EnterpriseAM. She noted that the introduction of index futures helped the market recover from that opening shock to close the day significantly higher. \u201cFor the first time, investors had a tool to hedge their equity exposure rather than simply sell it. That distinction matters enormously,\u201d Hamed said, adding that the market\u2019s behavior at the 47.7k level suggests some investors actively used these new tools to weather the storm.<\/p>\n

The market had found its footing before the geopolitical shock hit.<\/strong> \u201cThe index had pulled back from its all-time high of 52.8k to 48.6k by Thursday \u2014 a move driven largely by profit-taking after a strong rally,\u201d Hamed explained. The earlier selling meant the market was not falling from a peak, allowing the 47.9k level to act as a firm support floor. <\/p>\n

For asset managers, the volatility is creating a clear entry point for folks who had been <\/strong>waiting for a dip \u2014 any dip \u2014 to buy.<\/strong> \u201cI see these panic sessions as good chances to identify and build positions in fundamentally sound companies,\u201d Hamed told us, noting that new clients \u2014 armed with liquidity from maturing bank CDs \u2014 have been waiting for such a window to enter.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next? <\/strong>The outlook is more cautious for sectors with direct exposure to the conflict. \u201cEgypt\u2019s Red Sea resorts and airlines face direct demand destruction as regional airspace closures and travel risk aversion take hold,\u201d Hamed warned. Import-dependent industries face an acute supply chain shock as freight costs surge, while \u201creal estate construction projects with Gulf financing exposure could face some funding uncertainty\u201d as the regional situation remains fluid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Been there, bought the T-shirt: If nothing else, the actions of Egyptian policymakers yesterday made one thing clear: We\u2019ve finally learned how to handle a crisis. A few short years ago, an event like the war in the Gulf would have seen quiet verbal instructions relayed by telephone to bankers to slow exit queues and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":683464,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[93,72,716,89,145,8835,6984,91,12389,117,7263],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-683463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-logistics","tag-maritime","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-the-big-story-today","tag-us","tag-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"66747486-03ab-4bff-a7a6-9b843c3e7fa0","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/65.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"No thumb on the scale","related_issue":[683458],"teaser":""},"yoast_head":"\nEconomic impacts of the war on Iran mount as de facto closure of Hormuz risks sending oil toward the triple digits - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/03\/02\/economic-impacts-of-the-war-on-iran-mount-as-de-facto-closure-of-hormuz-risks-sending-oil-toward-the-triple-digits\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic impacts of the war on Iran mount as de facto closure of Hormuz risks sending oil toward the triple digits\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Been there, bought the T-shirt: If nothing else, the actions of Egyptian policymakers yesterday made one thing clear: We\u2019ve finally learned how to handle a crisis. 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It\u2019s another (unsurprisingly) busy afternoon in the press, and we\u2019ve got the latest for you below. Today, we\u2019re taking a look at why the Egyptian street is being repackaged as a luxury moodboard, trying out a hot new pizza place, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1495.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":692839,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/14\/egypts-finance-minister-promises-no-new-taxes-in-wartime-budget\/","url_meta":{"origin":683463,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s Finance Minister promises no new taxes in wartime budget","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 April 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The FinMin looks to add 100k new taxpayers via incentive-driven reform","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Story Today"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Story Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-big-story-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/790.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":693290,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/14\/finmin-raises-fy-2026-27-general-government-budget-estimate-to-egp-9-7-tn\/","url_meta":{"origin":683463,"position":2},"title":"FinMin raises FY 2026\/27 general government budget estimate to EGP 9.7 tn","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 April 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\ud83d\udc4b Ladies and gents, we bid you a warm return to your offices \u2014 and offer a much-needed reminder that you\u2019re in for a shorter-than-usual workweek, so hang in there. There\u2019s a lot to catch you up on, and we\u2019ve got it all covered below. In today\u2019s issue, we sit\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/1404.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":587320,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/25\/qatar-committed-to-its-egypt-investment-pledge-says-finance-minister\/","url_meta":{"origin":683463,"position":3},"title":"Qatar \u201ccommitted\u201d to its Egypt investment pledge, says finance minister","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"No more \u201cgrants and charities,\u201d Ali Al Kuwari says","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1417.JPG?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":693546,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/15\/finmin-aims-to-settle-egp-308-cbe-debt-by-end-of-fy\/","url_meta":{"origin":683463,"position":4},"title":"FinMin aims to settle EGP 308 CBE debt by end of FY","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 April 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends. We\u2019ve got a packed issue for you \u2014 and despite some doom and gloom from the IMF, we\u2019re (very cautiously) optimistic this morning. What gives? For starters, the EGP continues to move in ways that make sense, responding to inflows and outflows of FX. We\u2019ve talked a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TODAY"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TODAY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today-10\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/1244.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545342,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/22\/this-evening-egx-continues-rising-our-first-samurai-bond-issuance-is-back-in-play-egypt-revises-downwards-fy2022-2023-gdp-growth-rate\/","url_meta":{"origin":683463,"position":5},"title":"THIS EVENING: EGX continues rising + Our first Samurai bond issuance is back in play + Egypt revises downwards FY2022-2023 GDP growth rate","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Happy hump days, ladies and gentlemen. The news cycle here at home calmed down somewhat from where it was yesterday, but is still pleasantly brisk. THE BIG STORIES TODAYEGX continues rising: The EGX climbed again today thanks to the raft of decisions and announcements yesterday, including the Madbouly government\u2019s EGP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/683463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=683463"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/683463\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":683504,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/683463\/revisions\/683504"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/683458"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/683464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=683463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=683463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=683463"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=683463"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=683463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}