{"id":683110,"date":"2026-01-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=683110"},"modified":"2026-01-25T03:59:41","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T03:59:41","slug":"bmi-emerges-as-the-most-bullish-voice-on-egypts-2026-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/25\/bmi-emerges-as-the-most-bullish-voice-on-egypts-2026-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"BMI emerges as the most bullish voice on Egypt\u2019s 2026 recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Solution\u2019s research unit BMI now sees the country\u2019s growth accelerating to 5.3% in the current fiscal year<\/strong>, up 0.3 percentage points from their October<\/a> forecast, BMI MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. \u201cThe main growth drivers in Egypt will be stronger investment as cost pressures and interest rates fall, normalizing imports and firmer exports,\" Kas-Hanna noted.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>This is only the latest growth projection upgrade to catch our attention, with the IMF only last week raising its prediction<\/a> for the fiscal year to 4.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from its October projection. BMI\u2019s outlook, however, stands out as the most optimistic and seems to be ahead of the Madbouly government\u2019s expectation<\/a> that the economy will grow \u201cno less than\u201d 5.0% in the 12-month period ending June.<\/p>\n

The research unit sees decent progress on the inflation front<\/strong>, with headline inflation \u201ctrending down through the year\u201d to near the upper end of the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b12 percentage points) target for 4Q 2026. Supporting the outlook is a stable EGP, which BMI forecasts to hold at between 47 and 49 against the greenback.<\/p>\n

This cooling will allow the Central Bank of Egypt to be aggressive with its easing cycle<\/strong>, with BMI forecasting 600 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, followed by another 300 bps in 2027, BMI MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Abdalla Saleh said. Crucially, falling interest rates will provide immediate relief to the government budget, as 35% of Egypt\u2019s debt is short-term and highly sensitive to rate changes, they added.<\/p>\n

Despite the optimism, Hanna warned of a growing reliance on portfolio inflows<\/strong>, which now account for half of Egypt\u2019s total reserves, making the country \u201cmore sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment,\u201d Kas-Hanna said. While portfolio inflows proved to be \"resilient\" in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, future escalation could see this concern become an issue, she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BMI forecasts 600 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, followed by another 300 bps in 2027<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":683111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,3637,12483,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-683110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-solutions","tag-growth","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"799920f9-935f-49ca-9c08-0821ccc40357","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/197.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"BMI emerges as the most bullish voice on Egypt\u2019s 2026 recovery","related_issue":[683095],"teaser":"BMI forecasts 600 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, followed by another 300 bps in 2027"},"yoast_head":"\nBMI emerges as the most bullish voice on Egypt\u2019s 2026 recovery - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/25\/bmi-emerges-as-the-most-bullish-voice-on-egypts-2026-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BMI emerges as the most bullish voice on Egypt\u2019s 2026 recovery\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"BMI forecasts 600 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, followed by another 300 bps in 2027\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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