{"id":682089,"date":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=682089"},"modified":"2026-01-20T12:35:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T12:35:49","slug":"banks-are-front-running-the-easing-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/04\/banks-are-front-running-the-easing-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks are front-running the easing cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The nation\u2019s banks wrapped a blockbuster 2025 by outmaneuvering the Central Bank of <\/strong><strong>Egypt\u2019s (CBE) monetary easing cycle<\/strong>, transforming what could have been a margin squeeze into a windfall. Banks acted swiftly to lower interest rates on deposits and new certificates, cutting expenses. That, combined with the slower pace of rate cuts, allowed banks to sustain high net interest margins (NIMs) throughout 2025 even as interest rates trended downward, industry insiders tell us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The \u201cspread\u201d strategy: <\/strong>Throughout 2025, the CBE slashed rates by a total of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d51870a6-7c1f-43aa-8425-60387de27f60\/%2525d8%2525af%2525d9%252588%2525d8%2525b1%2525d8%2525a9-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d8%2525aa%2525d9%25258a%2525d8%2525b3%2525d9%25258a%2525d8%2525b1-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d9%252586%2525d9%252582%2525d8%2525af%2525d9%25258a-%2525d8%2525aa%2525d9%252583%2525d8%2525aa%2525d8%2525b3%2525d8%2525a8-%2525d8%2525b2%2525d8%2525ae%2525d9%252585%2525d8%2525a7-%2525d9%252585%2525d8%2525b9-%2525d8%2525ae%2525d9%252581%2525d8%2525b6-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d9%252585%2525d8%2525b1%2525d9%252583%2525d8%2525b2%2525d9%25258a%25253cmark%25253e-%2525d8%2525a3%2525d8%2525b3%2525d8%2525b9%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525b1-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d9%252581%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525a6%2525d8%2525af%2525d8%2525a9%25253c%252Fmark%25253e-100-%2525d9%252586%2525d9%252582%2525d8%2525b7%2525d8%2525a9-%2525d8%2525a3%2525d8%2525b3%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525b3\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">725 basis points<\/a>, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 20.00%. Banks acted offensively rather than waiting for cuts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Cost-cutting:<\/strong> Lenders moved immediately to lower rates on new certificates and deposits;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yield locking:<\/strong> At the same time, their balance sheets remained packed with high-yield bonds and loans secured during the 2024 interest rate peak;<\/li>\n<li><strong>The result?<\/strong> This \u201ctiming gap\" allowed banks to maintain outsized NIMs even as the headline rates trended downward.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>By swiftly slashing deposit rates while riding high-yield legacy portfolios, banks saw consolidated net income increase to EGP 433.8 bn in the first nine months of 2025 <\/strong>\u2014 a massive jump from the EGP 274.9 bn that banks had accumulated at the half-year mark, according to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/1305.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">a CBE report<\/a>. Net operating income in the sector surpassed the EGP 1 tn mark in the nine months ending 30 September, up from EGP 661.1 bn as at the end of June. Net interest income (NII) reached EGP 766.8 bn in 9M 2025, up from EGP 503.6 bn in 6M 2025, highlighting the sector's ability to leverage current rate levels to maximize returns. Total banking sector assets rose to EGP 25.37 tn, with the total deposit portfolio reaching approximately EGP 15.32 tn at the end of September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>The record results likely represent the \u201ctop of the curve,\u201d economist Hany Abou El Fotouh tells us, with the real test beginning in 2026 as <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EGP 1.3 tn worth of 27% certificates mature<\/a>. The \u201ccertificate wars\u201d of the past are being replaced by \u201ccheap liquidity wars,\u201d where the winners will be those who can attract low-cost current and savings accounts (CASA) through digital services rather than with expensive interest rates. Banks might be willing to slightly reduce their income to secure and maintain this liquidity, former Industrial Development Bank Chairman Maged Fahmy tells us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Banks can no longer rely on \u201ceasy income\u201d from the differential between what they pay depositors and the <\/strong><strong>income they generate from parking funds in government paper<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong> We\u2019re witnessing the end of \u201ceasy arbitrage,\u201d Abou El Fotouh tells us. For years, banks could thrive as mere \u201cdeposit collectors,\u201d parking liquidity in high-yield Treasuries. In 2026, that game is over. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Where will the banks try to make up the difference? <\/strong>Interest rates are still at a level that prevents real corporate borrowing for capital expenditure (though that\u2019s expected to improve as the year wears on). <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What to watch in 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Companies get more love:<\/strong> With surplus liquidity and lower funding costs, expect a \u201cpricing war\u201d as banks compete to capture high-quality corporate clients;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Diversification: <\/strong>Banks will be pushing to drive revenue from more classical investment banking arms as well as non-bank financial services (consumer finance and ins., among others);<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fees and commissions <\/strong>will likely rise for everything under the sun;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Keep an eye on the rise of green bonds and retail lending<\/strong> \u2014 personal loans and credit cards \u2014 as banks hunt for higher-margin alternatives to government paper.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While banks moved quickly to cut interest rates on deposits and new certificates to reduce immediate costs, their asset portfolios continued to enjoy high yields<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":682090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7350],"tags":[204,271,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-682089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-banking","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"37de9293-b935-41bf-b663-60672f6a4087","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"How Egypt\u2019s banks are front-running the easing cycle","related_issue":[682079],"teaser":"While banks moved quickly to cut interest rates on deposits and new certificates to reduce immediate costs, their asset portfolios continued to enjoy high yields"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The banks started selling the high-interest certificates in March to protect savers and ease pressure on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/234.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595676,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/04\/egypts-economic-conditions-could-allow-cbe-to-accelerate-easing-cycle-hc-securities\/","url_meta":{"origin":682089,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economic conditions could allow CBE to accelerate easing cycle -HC Securities","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic conditions could allow CBE to accelerate easing cycle, fully reverse monetary tightening by 2020 -HC Securities: Improving economic conditions and the anticipated cool-down of inflation once the full effect of fuel subsidy cuts wear off should give the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) enough breathing room to begin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568216,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/22\/why-banks-in-egypt-remain-profitable-chapter-xxii\/","url_meta":{"origin":682089,"position":2},"title":"Why banks in Egypt remain profitable: Chapter XXII","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Profits in the banking sector have grown this year despite an acceleration of the central bank\u2019s easing cycle, a survey conducted by the local press showed. Thirteen banks saw their net income and interest income increase during the first nine months of 2020 even as central bank cut rates by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/375.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569103,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/13\/cbe-to-ease-off-rate-cuts-this-year-in-a-bid-to-support-strong-carry-trade-efg-hermes\/","url_meta":{"origin":682089,"position":3},"title":"CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to slow its easing cycle this year as it looks to maintain the strength of the carry trade and support the EGP, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/181.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549600,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/22\/anticipation-ahead-of-mpc-meeting-gold-deposits-at-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":682089,"position":4},"title":"Anticipation ahead of MPC meeting + gold deposits at banks?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It was something of a slow night on the airwaves last night, with talking heads focusing on the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest interest rate hike and how it would impact our central bank\u2019s decision when its monetary policy committee meets today to decide on interest rates.Some want the CBE to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS&quot;","block_context":{"text":"LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594268,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say\/","url_meta":{"origin":682089,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt expected to begin \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity, economists say","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the CBE about to begin an \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity to boost credit growth, private investment? 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