{"id":682087,"date":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=682087"},"modified":"2026-01-20T12:35:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T12:35:43","slug":"is-the-egps-speculative-pricing-era-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/04\/is-the-egps-speculative-pricing-era-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the EGP\u2019s \u201cspeculative pricing\u201d era over?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The EGP<\/strong><strong> closed 2025 on a high note, having appreciated 6.7% for the year against the <\/strong><strong>greenback.<\/strong> Driven by a record-breaking surge in remittances, surging tourism, and improving exports, the EGP is widely projected to strengthen further in 2026 as the nation moves from a \u201cvicious cycle\u201d of devaluation to a \u201cvirtuous cycle\u201d of upgrades, according to industry experts we spoke to.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>By the numbers:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Record reserves:<\/strong> Foreign exchange reserves reached a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">record USD 50.215 bn<\/a> in November;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Remittance surge:<\/strong> Inflows from Egyptians abroad hit an unprecedented <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/738d60e1-cf04-4f50-b57b-4b0c55f1b06a\/a-regulator-for-logistics-zones,-an-uptick-in%253cmark%253e-remittances%253c%2Fmark%253e,-and-a-taj-branded-continental-hotel\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 33.9 bn<\/a> in the first ten months of 2025 \u2014 a 42.8% y-o-y increase since the March 2024 float;<\/li>\n<li><strong>NFA rebound:<\/strong> Net foreign assets (NFAs) reached USD 22.7 bn by end-October, marking a massive recovery from the negative territory that defined 2022\u20132024;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Suez Canal recovery:<\/strong> While Red Sea tensions cut Suez Canal revenues to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c64ad0cb-f3a5-4d5f-8e2c-7658c1a7c9a9\/current-account-deficit-narrows-to-usd-15.4-bn-in-fy-2024-25\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 3.6 bn in fiscal year 2024-2025<\/a>, a gradual rebound to USD 5.5 bn is expected by FY 2026-2027 as trade activity normalizes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cWhen these indica<\/strong><strong>tors come together, they generate a compounded effect known as the accumulation of foreign currency surplus<\/strong>, which helps address the liquidity shortages that have historically put pressure on the EGP,\u201d EG Bank Board Member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A series of strategic and global shifts are helping prop-up the EGP:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Positive real interest rates: <\/strong>Egypt remains a magnet for foreign investors in local debt instruments. High positive real rates \u2014 maintained even as inflation cools \u2014 ensure a sustainable inflow of USD to meet financing needs, Abdel Aal tells us.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The sharp decline in credit default swap spreads makes it easier for Egypt to issue new bonds and sukuk<\/strong>, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genana tells us.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strategic economic and fiscal measures: <\/strong>Major investment transactions are expected to conclude, bringing in fresh USD inflows or facilitating debt swaps. The government is moving ahead with its asset privatization plans, including assets like Banque du Caire.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Lower energy prices: <\/strong>A decline in global prices for imported oil and gas, coupled with higher domestic production and increased imports via pipelines, is expected to slash the trade deficit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Our take:<\/strong> For the private sector, the story is less the absolute exchange rate but the death of both the parallel market and the fear-based pricing it sparked. Manufacturers who once priced goods based on their expectations of future black-market rates are returning to rational planning. With the USD now readily available in banks, the EGP has shifted from a source of daily anxiety to a stable anchor for corporate budgeting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The IMF factor:<\/strong> The successful conclusion of the IMF\u2019s fifth and sixth reviews paves the way for a USD 2.7 bn payout in January. While the program expires in October 2026, the IMF agreement is now a \u201ccertificate of confidence\u201d rather than a \u201clife support machine,\u201d Federation of Egyptian Industries board member Mohamed El Bahy tells us. He added that with USD 50 bn investment agreements now on the table, a single IMF tranche is no longer the needle-mover it once was.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Going forward:<\/strong> \u201cEven after the IMF [program] ends, the lessons learned over the last two years have fundamentally changed the mindset of Egyptian economic management. There is now a consensus among the government, experts, and the private sector that rational, stable management is the only way forward,\" Genena tells us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What to watch in 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Where will the EGP trade against the USD this year:<\/strong> Abdel Aal sees an EGP 45\u201355 range, while Genena is more bullish, projecting an average of 46 EGP;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Interest rate path:<\/strong> Genena suggests that anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming year \u2014 potentially up to 800 bps \u2014 will not negatively impact the EGP, attributing this to a broader global trend of monetary easing;<\/li>\n<li><strong>The risks:<\/strong> Heavy debt service obligations and the potential for a surge in \u201cnon-essential\u201d imports as liquidity improves remain the primary \u201cresistance elements\u201d to further appreciation, Abdel Aal says.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Driven by a record-breaking surge in remittances and the restoration of banking sector liquidity, the currency is widely projected to strengthen further in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":682088,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[204,104,72,2234],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-682087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-banking","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"988ad11a-d47b-45a4-8f5d-0d57fe51a720","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/1700.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EGP enters 2026 full steam ahead as \u201cspeculative pricing\u201d era ends","related_issue":[682079],"teaser":"Driven by a record-breaking surge in remittances and the restoration of banking sector liquidity, the currency is widely projected to strengthen further in 2026"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the EGP\u2019s \u201cspeculative pricing\u201d era over? 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Inflows rose 2.5% y-o-y to a record USD 8.3 bn in the final quarter of the fiscal year (April-June) amid soaring oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/369.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575989,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/05\/net-foreign-assets-in-egyptian-banks-surge-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":682087,"position":2},"title":"Net foreign assets in Egyptian banks surge in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Net foreign assets in Egypt\u2019s banking sector surged by 32% m-o-m in September, as foreigners continue to return to government treasuries after selling out of global emerging markets in the early weeks of the pandemic. Central bank data picked up by Al Mal shows assets rose to USD 14.03 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554158,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/22\/remittances-up-1-5-in-1q2021-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":682087,"position":3},"title":"Remittances up 1.5% in 1Q2021-2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Remittances from Egyptians abroad were up 1.5% y-o-y to USD 8.1 bn in the first quarter of FY 2021-2022, the central bank announced in a statement (pdf). The quarterly figure rose despite September being a slow month, with remittances dipping 3% y-o-y to USD 2.6 bn. In August, remittances grew\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/450.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576024,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/08\/sp-affirms-egypts-b-credit-rating-outlook-at-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":682087,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P affirms Egypt\u2019s B credit rating, outlook at stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s B sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, despite elevated external risks from covid-19, according to a research note over the weekend, leaving its ratings largely unchanged since April. S&P\u2019s outlook rests on the expectation that \u201cthe weakening of external and government debt metrics\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/79.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592217,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/02\/net-foreign-assets-deficit-widens-to-most-on-record-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":682087,"position":5},"title":"Net foreign assets deficit widens to most on record in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Net liabilities in the banking system widened by USD 2.6 bn during the month","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/67.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/682087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=682087"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/682087\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":682174,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/682087\/revisions\/682174"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/682079"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/682088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=682087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=682087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=682087"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=682087"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=682087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}