{"id":680633,"date":"2026-01-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=680633"},"modified":"2026-01-11T04:22:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T04:22:22","slug":"fiscal-indicators-improve-in-1h-2025-2026-as-debt-costs-cool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/11\/fiscal-indicators-improve-in-1h-2025-2026-as-debt-costs-cool\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal indicators improve in 1H 2025-2026 as debt costs cool"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Finance Ministry is signaling a turning point in Egypt\u2019s fiscal health as the primary <\/strong>surplus \u2014 which excludes interest payments \u2014 rose to EGP 383 bn<\/strong> (1.8% of GDP) in 1H FY 2025-2026, up from 1.3% of GDP a year earlier, according to a statement<\/a>. The primary surplus stood at EGP 306.8 bn during the first five months<\/a> of the current fiscal year, signaling a rapid acceleration in fiscal consolidation between November and December.<\/p>\n

The key drivers: <\/strong>The improvement was driven by a 32% y-o-y jump in tax revenues during the period, which helped keep the overall budget deficit stable at 4.1%. Total revenue rose more than 30% in 1H, outpacing the growth rate of expenses during the same period, according to the statement. <\/p>\n

M<\/strong>ore importantly for investors, the ministry flagged a significant drop in risk premiums.<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) \u2014 the cost of ins. against sovereign default \u2014 dropped below 270 bps on 6 January, marking its lowest level since 2020. At the same time, yields on international bonds fell by 300-400 bps y-o-y. The shift suggests that the market is finally pricing in a \u201clower-for-longer\u201d risk profile for the state, which will eventually translate into lower borrowing costs. <\/p>\n

Beyond the numbers: <\/strong>Revenue growth outstripped the growth in spending, which has effectively lowered the debt-to-GDP ratio and net borrowing requirements. The Finance Ministry expects even stronger performance in the second half of the fiscal year (ending June 2026), as the January-June window typically sees peak tax inflows.<\/p>\n

The outlook: <\/strong>With the conclusion of our IMF program due by year-end, the figures suggest the Finance Ministry is still on track to hit its 4% annual primary surplus target without needing to make any sharp policy changes.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The primary surplus rose to EGP 383 bn during the six-month period<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":680634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[7106,88,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-680633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-debt","tag-debt-watch","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0ecf38d4-cf47-49c1-a0b9-db14bae14911","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/728.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fiscal indicators improve in 1H 2025-2026 as debt costs cool","related_issue":[680620],"teaser":"The primary surplus rose to EGP 383 bn during the six-month period"},"yoast_head":"\nFiscal indicators improve in 1H 2025-2026 as debt costs cool - 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The surplus came on the back of an increase in tax revenues, which rose 16% y-o-y, the minister said.The surplus is down on an annual basis, but it\u2019s still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/248.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563837,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/26\/egypt-beats-budget-deficit-primary-surplus-targets-in-2020-21\/","url_meta":{"origin":680633,"position":1},"title":"Egypt beats budget deficit, primary surplus targets in 2020-21","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s primary surplus, budget deficit beat expectations in 2020-2021: Egypt recorded a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP, or around EGP 93.1 bn, during FY2020-2021, Ittihadiya said in a statement yesterday.This is comfortably higher than the 0.9% targeted by the government and better than the IMF\u2019s expectations for a 1%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":691205,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/02\/rising-debt-costs-swallow-egypts-fiscal-gains-in-fy-through-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":680633,"position":2},"title":"Rising debt costs swallow Egypt\u2019s fiscal gains in FY through February","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 April 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The primary surplus almost doubled to EGP 656.8 bn to the equivalent of 3.1% of GDP","rel":"","context":"In 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/1751.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544781,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/21\/govt-lowers-fy-2022-2023-budget-targets-as-ukraine-conflict-strains-finances\/","url_meta":{"origin":680633,"position":5},"title":"Gov\u2019t lowers FY 2022-2023 budget targets as Ukraine conflict strains finances","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"FinMin trims budget targets as Ukraine conflict weighs on state finances: The Finance Ministry has revised downwards its fiscal targets for FY 2022-2023 as rising commodities prices put pressure on public finances, according to figures published in an Ittihadiya statement yesterday evening.Deficit still on course to narrow: The government now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In 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