{"id":680628,"date":"2026-01-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=680628"},"modified":"2026-01-11T04:22:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T04:22:09","slug":"inflation-was-flat-in-december-does-that-set-up-the-next-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/11\/inflation-was-flat-in-december-does-that-set-up-the-next-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation was flat in December \u2014 does that set up the next rate cut?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflatio<\/strong>n was <\/strong>unchanged<\/strong> at 12.3% in December<\/strong>, the same pace at which prices rose the month before. This came even as the price of food and beverages rose 1.5% year-on-year last month compared to 0.7% y-o-y in November<\/a>, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. <\/p>\n

Beyond food, the data shows \u201cnot just deceleration in inflation rates, but outright <\/strong>deflation in durable prices<\/strong>, whether that is real estate or automobiles\u201d as the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s interest rate policy helped choke inflation, Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

This structural cooling is being paired with a tactical government effort to manage food <\/strong>and beverage prices, which saw a paradoxical split this month. <\/strong>Although the annual food inflation figure ticked up to 1.5% y-o-y, the month-on-month change in prices was actually a drop of 0.7%. This was driven by a sharp reversal in poultry and egg prices, which Genena notes \u201cdo have a material impact on the index\u201d and \u201ccause swings in the inflation rate on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>With inflation concerns now increasingly in the rearview mirror, the central <\/strong>bank should be emboldened to push ahead with its easing cycle<\/strong> \u2014 and give the Finance Ministry breathing room on its debt-service costs. Genena expects the central bank to cut rates by 200 bps when it next meets in mid-February, pointing to how \u201chigh interest rates are causing pressure on the Finance Ministry\u201d and the need to address interest payments on debt, which effectively consumed over 96% of the state\u2019s total budget between July to November<\/a> with a EGP 1.06 tn bill.<\/p>\n

What to watch for next: <\/strong>Policymakers will be closely watching January\u2019s inflation reading, out early next month. Sahar Al Damati, the veteran banker and former chair of Banque Misr, told us last month that the bulk of imports for Ramadan was already accounted for, suggesting that the traditional inflationary impact of the holy month (set to start around 19 February) may already be priced-in.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation was unchanged at 12.3% in December, the same pace at which prices rose the month before. This came even as the price of food and beverages rose 1.5% year-on-year last month compared to 0.7% y-o-y in November, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Beyond food, the data shows \u201cnot just […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":680629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-680628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3fab91b8-f2b5-49d2-9244-3e8785fd62fe","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/450.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt inflation was flat in December \u2014 does that set up the next rate cut?","related_issue":[680620],"teaser":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation was flat in December \u2014 does that set up the next rate cut? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/01\/11\/inflation-was-flat-in-december-does-that-set-up-the-next-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation was flat in December \u2014 does that set up the next rate cut?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban inflation was unchanged at 12.3% in December, the same pace at which prices rose the month before. 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The increase was driven by higher food prices, which single-handedly brought annual inflation to its highest since May. Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578706,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/11\/inflation-hits-new-high-on-weaker-egp\/","url_meta":{"origin":680628,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits new high on weaker EGP","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a fresh five-year high in December as the impact of successive currency devaluations continued to feed through to the economy. Figures released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas showed annual urban inflation jumped to 21.3% in December, up from 18.7% the month before, driven by surging food\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":680628,"position":5},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=680628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":680672,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680628\/revisions\/680672"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/680620"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/680629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=680628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=680628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=680628"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=680628"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=680628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}