{"id":679380,"date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=679380"},"modified":"2025-12-31T03:48:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T03:48:17","slug":"banks-brace-for-egp-1-5-tn-liquidity-tsunami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/31\/banks-brace-for-egp-1-5-tn-liquidity-tsunami\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks brace for EGP 1.5 tn \u201cliquidity tsunami\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

How are our top lenders recycling maturity proceeds into the real economy? <\/strong>Local banks are preparing for a massive structural shift in liquidity as an estimated EGP 1.3-1.5 tn in high-yield certificates reach maturity in early January 2026. Industry leaders see this influx as a \u201chealthy economic phenomenon\u201d marking the transition from a period of emergency monetary tightening to a new era of growth and production.<\/p>\n

How will these banks retain this massive liquidity? <\/strong>As these certificates expire, the banking sector faces the critical challenge of managing a surge of disposable capital. Specialized asset-liability committees within the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr \u2014 the two largest state-owned lenders \u2014 evaluated their product portfolios to prevent \u201cliquidity leakage.\u201d <\/p>\n

Pricing adjustments: <\/strong>The two banks reduced yields on several local currency three-year saving certificates by 1 bp to 16% starting today, following the Central Bank of Egypt's (CBE) decision to cut<\/a> rates 100 bps last week.<\/p>\n

The macro picture: <\/strong>With its last rate cut of the year, the CBE signaled that it is pivoting to a growth-stimulating strategy walking into 2026. The central bank slashed rates by a total of 725 bps in 2025, marking the end of its restrictive monetary cycle that followed the March 2024 currency float. Consequently, interest rates are now at their lowest level since early 2024.<\/p>\n

By the numbers:<\/strong> The committee set the overnight deposit rate at 20.00%, the overnight lending rate at 21.00%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 20.50%.<\/p>\n

Positive real yields:<\/strong> Unlike 2024, when a 27% yield was negated by 35%+ inflation, the current environment \u2014 with inflation at 12.3% and certificates at 17-18% \u2014 offers savers a real profit of 6-7% for the first time in years. \u201cCD holders must recognize and seek out the real return rather than being deceived by the nominal return. With the significant drop in inflation levels the real return on savings vessels is currently higher than ever before,\u201d Sahar El Damaty, banking expert and former Banque Misr deputy chairperson, tells us.<\/p>\n

Savers are advised to lock in last chance yield: <\/strong>\u201cWe advise customers to lock their savings into existing certificates at current rates,\u201d EG Bank Board Member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells us. As the yield curve trends downward, today's 17% is projected to fall closer to 13%, 12%, or even 9% in 2026, he added.<\/p>\n

Banks should be transitioning from \u201cpiggy banks\u201d to \u201cengines of <\/strong>growth,\u201d<\/strong> economist Hany Abou El Fotouh tells us. Banks should innovate investment vehicles that link savings to productive activity, rather than tying them solely to the state treasury,\u201d Abou El Fotouh suggested.<\/p>\n

Expanding the credit reach:<\/strong> With the loan-to-deposit ratio reaching 64.3% by the end of September, banks must shift focus from government debt to financing the industrial and agricultural sectors, Abou El Fotouh said. Our largest 10 banks recorded an even higher LDR of 65.1% at the end of September.<\/p>\n

Stabilizing the net interest margin:<\/strong> Banks are working to strike a balance between interest paid to depositors and interest earned from loans while closely monitoring monetary policy requirements and inflation constraints to avoid losses as the cost of capital declines.<\/p>\n

Our take:<\/strong> The upcoming \u201ctsunami\u201d is the ultimate test of the Egyptian banking sector's maturity. With EGP 15.3 tn in total deposits and a robust liquidity buffer, the sector's success will be measured by its ability to recycle these tns into the real economy rather than just acting as a \u201cmoney box.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Both NBE and Banque Misr decided to reduce yields on several EGP savings certificates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":679381,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7350],"tags":[204,576,72,248],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-679380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-banking","tag-banque-misr","tag-enterpriseam","tag-national-bank-of-egypt","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"63a20a7a-bedd-4c8d-a0d2-f0696387a978","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/1471.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"From 'money box' to growth engine: Egypt\u2019s banks brace for EGP 1.5 tn \u201cliquidity tsunami\u201d","related_issue":[679370],"teaser":"Both NBE and Banque Misr decided to reduce yields on several EGP savings certificates"},"yoast_head":"\nBanks brace for EGP 1.5 tn \u201cliquidity tsunami\u201d - 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The state-owned banks began offering the certificates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking + Finance"","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546847,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/31\/bye-bye-18-certificates-of-deposit\/","url_meta":{"origin":679380,"position":1},"title":"Bye-bye, 18% certificates of deposit\u2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"NBE, Banque Misr suspend sales of 18% CDs: State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr will no longer be selling one-year, 18% certificates of deposit (CDs) introduced after the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s devalued the EGP on 22 March, according to a statement (pdf) from Banque Misr and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/410.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570846,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/16\/national-bank-of-egypt-banque-misr-sell-egp-82-bn-of-high-yield-certificates\/","url_meta":{"origin":679380,"position":2},"title":"National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr sell EGP 82 bn of high-yield certificates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"State banks sell EGP 82 bn of high-interest savings certificates: National Bank of Egypt has sold EGP 56 bn of its 15% fixed-rate certificates, including EGP 4 bn in one day, Deputy Chairman Yehya Aboul Fotouh tells Masrawy. Banque Misr has also sold EGP 26 bn of the certificates, Deputy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578632,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/newly-introduced-25-cds-see-massive-demand-in-first-two-days-big-two-bag-usd-700-mn-facility\/","url_meta":{"origin":679380,"position":3},"title":"Newly introduced 25% CDs see massive demand in first two days + Big Two bag USD 700 mn facility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The newly released 25% certificates of deposit have raked in almost EGP 100 bn in a matter of days \u2014 and the two state banks offering them have reportedly secured a major loan to meet local demand for hard currency.Savers poured nearly EGP 100 bn into newly introduced record-high yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590806,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/banque-misr-nbe-are-back-with-another-round-of-usd-certificates-to-draw-more-fx-into-the-banking-system\/","url_meta":{"origin":679380,"position":4},"title":"Banque Misr + NBE are back with another round of USD certificates to draw more FX into the banking system","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The state banks will begin offering two three-year certificates offering 7% and 9% annual rates from today","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1038.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574784,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/22\/nbe-banque-misr-scrap-high-interest-savings-certificates\/","url_meta":{"origin":679380,"position":5},"title":"NBE, Banque Misr scrap high-interest savings certificates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"NBE, Banque Misr scrap high-interest CDs: State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have stopped offering 15% fixed-rate savings certificates launched in mid-March, the institutions told the local press (here and here). The banks started selling the high-interest certificates in March to protect savers and ease pressure on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/234.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/679380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=679380"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/679380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":679421,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/679380\/revisions\/679421"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/679370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/679381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=679380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=679380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=679380"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=679380"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=679380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}