{"id":678579,"date":"2025-12-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=678579"},"modified":"2025-12-26T12:19:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T12:19:57","slug":"looking-at-egypt-next-year-heres-what-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/18\/looking-at-egypt-next-year-heres-what-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking at Egypt next year? Here\u2019s what to watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

For anyo<\/strong>ne who\u2019s been watching Egypt\u2019s privatization plans, 2025 was a <\/strong>year on pause<\/strong>, with painfully little movement in the IPO pipeline. Monsef Morsy, CI Capital\u2019s head of research<\/strong>, argues that next year could be different thanks to lower interest rates, clearer reform signals, and a more serious approach to privatization. The EGX, he thinks, could finally come off life support.<\/p>\n

For the EGX to work, two things need to happen<\/p>\n

#1- Falling policy rates \u2014 globally and locally: <\/strong>When rates are high, investors park their money in fixed income, Morsy says. Investors look at equities when falling rates send them looking for growth. \u201cGlobal monetary easing will mean capital flows from developed markets to emerging markets,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n

But won\u2019t they be looking at Saudi Arabia and the UAE before Egypt? <\/strong>The two big Gulf markets still attract the lion\u2019s share of investor attention \u2014 no question, he said. But that doesn\u2019t automatically crowd Egypt out. Why? Morsy says that the funds that allocate to Egypt are often not the same as those focused exclusively on Saudi. The EGX is small, and even modest foreign inflows can have a big impact as some investors actively look beyond the Saudi-UAE trade. \u201cI think Egypt will be among the top destinations in terms of deploying funds in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n

CI Capital expects Egypt to cut interest rates by around 600 basis points in 2026.<\/strong> Yes, bond yields will fall, but we\u2019ll look much safer from a credit-risk perspective, he says. \u201cEven with a 6 percentage point drop next year, we'll still be operating at a positive real yield going forward. I think the CBE will be aiming to keep real yields at a 3% positive. So this will definitely remain attractive to foreign investors.\u201d Foreign money, he says, will be interested not just in bonds, but in equities too.<\/p>\n

Data points: <\/strong>The CBE left interest rates unchanged last month<\/a>. The overnight deposit rate stands at 21.00%, the lending rate at 22.00%, and the main operation and discount rates at 21.50%. Annual urban inflation eased 0.2 percentage points in November to end the month at 12.3%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

#2- Follow through with promises made to investors:<\/strong> Investors don\u2019t just care what the government says \u2014 they care that it follows through, said Morsy. He added that while lower rates will help, IPOs are really a byproduct of stability and confidence, both of which are starting to fall into place.<\/p>\n

Big government land sales can bring in cash, but it\u2019s transient<\/strong>, said Morsy, noting that what really moves the needle for investors is opening real businesses to the private sector. What\u2019s a serious signal the government wants that? One thing could be allowing private operators to manage the airports<\/strong>, he said, adding that we could start with Hurghada Airport<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s a strategic asset and impacts strategic sectors such as tourism\u2026 This is something to watch out for and it shows we mean business.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Then there\u2019s FX stability + exports-driven industries <\/p>\n

FX stability has helped bring remittances back strong<\/strong>ly<\/strong>, and they \u201cwill keep coming in as long as we keep a stable FX rate. I think the current FX rate, I'd say, is at a good level, especially as long as the FX rate is moving with the inflation differential we have with our biggest trade partners \u2014 which is exactly what the CBE says it wants.\u201d Egypt has been trading in roughly the same FX range for months, he said, adding that the balance of payments is holding up, reserves are growing gradually, and FCY inflows are financing the economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cExports have been picking up over the past couple of quarte<\/strong>rs, a<\/strong>nd if you look at <\/strong>GDP growth per quarter, export-driven industries have been one of the main drivers,\u201d<\/strong> said Morsy, highlighting that companies like TMG, Edita, and Cleopatra have successfully expanded their international reach. Still, there\u2019s plenty policymakers can do to support the sector.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Amr Helal, CI Capital\u2019s CEO of the sell-side investment bank, told us earlier this<\/a>month<\/a> that foreign investors are closely watching export-oriented companies, seeing them as a hedge against FX volatility, thanks to their natural FX earnings and competitive cost structures.<\/p>\n

\n

What\u2019s quietly improving on the EGX<\/p>\n

Some of the notable achievements in 2025 mentioned by Morsy include <\/strong>a rise in market capitalization, improved trading liquidity, and a growing number of stocks now meeting the minimum size requirements for foreign investors. \u201cThis is something very important for foreign investors to start looking at because many of the foreign investors have thresholds. They have minimum levels in terms of deployment into stocks, with a minimum level of liquidity, and a minimum of market capitalization. So these improvements would start attracting foreign investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

With just two trading weeks left in the year, the benchmark EGX30 is up <\/strong>42.3% YTD.<\/strong><\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CI Capital\u2019s Monsef Morsy breaks down how privatization, lower rates, and policy signals will shape the market in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":678580,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7279],"tags":[102,136,72,2073],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-678579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight","tag-capital-markets","tag-ci-capital","tag-enterpriseam","tag-spotlight","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"df4d623c-95cf-4886-a41c-6d6a152be694","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/909.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Looking at Egypt next year? 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Five of seven analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise expect the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/230.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598252,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/20\/when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":678579,"position":3},"title":"When will we see capex spending pick up?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- With interest rates likely to be left on hold this week, don\u2019t expect a pickup in capex spending this year. The central bank\u2019s 100 bps cut in February was a step in the right direction, but was nowhere near enough to spur capex spending by a business community stuck\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2017\/3\/395.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578144,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/18\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-this-week-poll-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":678579,"position":4},"title":"CBE to raise interest rates this week - poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday thanks to rising inflation, according to our interest rate poll. 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