{"id":678435,"date":"2025-12-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=678435"},"modified":"2025-12-26T12:42:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T12:42:35","slug":"its-interest-rate-day-and-pundits-are-still-calling-a-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/25\/its-interest-rate-day-and-pundits-are-still-calling-a-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s interest rate day, and pundits are still calling a cut"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and a very Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating <\/strong>this morning. <\/strong>We hope you\u2019re surrounded by loved ones and are thoroughly unplugged from the news cycle. <\/p>\n

One thing you\u2019ll want to check in on this evening after Christmas dinner is whether the <\/strong>central bank cuts rates<\/strong>, giving businesses (and the state\u2019s debt service bill) another 100 or 200 bps of breathing room on top of the 625 bps worth of cuts it has delivered so far this year. It\u2019s the central bank\u2019s final interest rate meeting of the year. <\/p>\n

The consensus among analysts and economists remains that we can expect <\/strong>a 100-200<\/a><\/strong>bps rate cut<\/a><\/strong> and that the IMF\u2019s concern that disinflation is \u201cnot yet firmly entrenched\u201d<\/a> is unlikely to deter the MPC from reducing rates. This week\u2019s staff-level agreement on our fifth and sixth extended fund facility review is not the first time the IMF has flagged the importance of keeping inflation in check as it eases, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena told us. <\/p>\n

The Fund doesn\u2019t want Egypt to move too fast, but it\u2019s not discouraging further easing<\/strong>, Genena said. Veteran banker Mohamed Abdel Aal and economist Hany Abou El Fotouh echoed the same thoughts when we checked in with them yesterday, with Abou El Fotouh pointing out that high interest rates are putting a damper on investment and business productivity. <\/p>\n

Now is as good a time as ever:<\/strong> With USD liquidity now sitting at a \u201ccomfortable\u201d rate, it\u2019s a good time for the central bank to continue its easing cycle to give businesses a shot in the arm and help reduce the cost of debt service to the state budget, Abou El Fotouh said. \u201cA rate cut now would send a message of confidence that the peak of the [FX] crisis has passed and would be a courageous step to break the stranglehold on investment and revitalize the stagnant market.\u201d<\/p>\n

From The Hype Dept.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly\u2019s weekly presser yesterday set off waves <\/strong>of speculation in certain quarters overnight <\/strong>after he suggested \u201cwe will bring [Egypt\u2019s foreign debt] down to levels the country has not seen in 50 years.\u201d Part of his government\u2019s mandate for the coming year, he said, is to deliver an \u201cexceptional\u201d reduction in debt. (Watch, runtime: 1:01:32)<\/a> <\/p>\n

That sent the local press into overdrive. <\/strong>Was the PM foreshadowing a big land sale? Some form of debt forgiveness? A Festivus Miracle? Talk show host Mohamed Khair says his sources have told him to expect a major announcement (wait for it) \u201cin the coming days\u201d that will *change everything*. The PM, he says, has been working on the file in secrecy for months. And the mechanism? It\u2019s not a land sale, Khair wrote in a Facebook post. <\/p>\n

Everyone\u2019s jumped on the bandwagon:<\/strong> Al Masry Al Youm<\/a>, Masrawy<\/a>, Elwatan<\/a>, Vetogate<\/a>, social media \u2014 and it\u2019s a lot of hot air.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a nothingburger, folks \u2014 the PM\u2019s remarks are being taken more-than-a-bit out of <\/strong>context. <\/strong>Madbouly did, indeed, note that his government is actively working to cut the debt. The indicators are moving in the right direction, he said, and are supported by falling interest rates. <\/p>\n

Nothing Madbouly said yesterday is a departure: <\/strong>He\u2019s been talking-up for months now the need to reduce Egypt\u2019s debt.He said last week that he was aiming to reduce the ratio of debt to GDP to 40% by the end of June, down from 44% today. And he said back in September that the plan is to get down to the \u201clowest levels in recent history\u201d over the coming five years. <\/p>\n

More importantly yesterday: The PM continued to stay the course on the EGP<\/strong>, noting that there will be no \u201cdevaluation\u201d in the traditional sense (a state-mandated drop), but that the currency will continue to move based on market dynamics. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/p>\n

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Watch this space <\/p>\n

<\/a> SUBSIDIES \u2014 <\/strong>No <\/strong>more energy price hikes?<\/strong> The government does not have any reforms in the pipeline that will translate into higher living costs for Egyptians, \u201cparticularly in the energy sector,\u201d Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said<\/a> in his weekly presser. Madbouly doubled down on previous government statements stating that October\u2019s fuel price hike could be the last<\/a> for at least a year. <\/p>\n

But if oil prices skyrocket, all bets are off: <\/strong>A senior government official told us that the upcoming fiscal year\u2019s budget \u2014 which the government is currently putting together \u2014 explicitly does not rule out further price adjustments<\/a> if global oil markets threaten to widen the deficit again. Subsidies will be strictly limited to LPG cylinders and diesel, our source said.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> LOGISTICS \u2014<\/strong> Egypt wants to trade domestic port access for African logistics <\/strong>hubs.<\/strong> The Investment Ministry is proposing a form of land-swap to establish logistics zones in six unnamed African countries, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said in a statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How it would work:<\/strong> The state would secure land for logistics zones in target African markets to serve as export launchpads. In return, the partner countries (or entities) would be granted land at Egyptian ports. The ministry envisions the private sector managing these zones, though El Khatib also noted that he welcomed Mostakbal Misr helping manage the system under which the zones would operate. That would expand the authority\u2019s mandate beyond agriculture and reclamation into cross-border trade infrastructure.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> TRADE \u2014 Galvanized wire from Egypt and the UAE will now face anti-dumping <\/strong>duties in Morocco<\/strong> after the country\u2019s Industry and Commerce Ministry imposed provisional levies, escalating a trade dispute that threatens to fragment some regional supply chains. In the decision<\/a>(pdf)<\/a>, Rabat levied duties of up to 50.7% on Egyptian exporters, with the exception of the Egyptian Union of Wires, whose exports will face a 25.7% rate after it cooperated with investigators. The ministry cited \u201csustained price undercutting\u201d that has eroded the market share of local players.<\/p>\n

This is the second major protectionist move Rabat has taken against Cairo in the last <\/strong>quarter of this year<\/strong>, signaling that Morocco is aggressively prioritizing domestic industrial defense over regional trade pacts like the Agadir Agreement. It follows November's final anti-dumping duties<\/a> of up to 92.1% on Egyptian PVC. For Cairo, this creates a significant headwind for Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib\u2019s export roadmap, as key manufactured goods are priced out of a primary North African market.<\/p>\n

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PPPs \u2014<\/strong> The Transport Ministry is piloting a new auction model for Kom Abu Radi dry <\/strong>port<\/strong>, with a closed-envelope auction system launched by the General Authority of Land and Dry Ports for the construction and operation of the project, sources with knowledge of the matter tell EnterpriseAM. The deadline for opening technical envelopes has been set for April 2026.<\/p>\n

This is the first practical application of the ministry\u2019s move away from the traditional <\/strong>tender system<\/strong> \u2014 which prioritized the lowest cost of implementation \u2014 toward an auction-style model. The new mechanism is designed to secure the highest operating return for the state and the fastest execution timeline, moving away from bureaucratic structures to attract faster foreign and local direct investment, our sources tell us.<\/p>\n

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Data point<\/p>\n

<\/a> 18.8 <\/strong>mn \u2014 the total number of tourist arrivals in Egypt this year<\/strong>, up nearly 20% y-o-y, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said<\/a> during his weekly presser. The increase in arrivals puts Egypt on track to achieve its goal of hitting 30 mn tourists per year<\/a> by 2030 \u2014 and his government will be setting higher targets for 2040, Madbouly said. <\/p>\n

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PSA-<\/p>\n

WEATHER- <\/strong>We ha<\/strong>ve more typical winter weather in store for Cairo today, <\/strong>with a high of 23\u00b0C and a low of 12\u00b0C, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit colder in Alexandria<\/strong>, with a high of 21\u00b0C and a low of 12\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Programming note: <\/strong>Our weekly My Morning Routine<\/a> column is on hiatus until the week after Coptic Christmas. <\/p>\n

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Get Enterprise<\/b> daily <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover <\/strong>Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/strong>,<\/strong> the <\/strong>UAE<\/a><\/strong> and the <\/strong>MENA-India<\/a><\/strong>Corridor<\/a><\/strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\n

The big story abroad<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a quiet morning for global business as just about all Western markets take the day <\/strong>off<\/strong> and folks \u2014 bridging or not \u2014 slide into a long weekend. The NYSE, Nasdaq, LSE, Paris, and Frankfurt exchanges are all closed. <\/p>\n

Up first: <\/strong>Stocks hit another high on Wall Street yesterday<\/a> as investors pine for a \u201cSanta Claus rally\u201d \u2014 hoping to see shares advance in the seven trading days that include the last five of 2025 and the first two of next year. <\/p>\n

We promised ourselves we\u2019d stop writing about the bloody Epstein files, but here we <\/strong>are: <\/strong>The US Department of Justice is looking for \u201cemergency recruits\u201d to work through Christmas and New Year\u2019s after officials just happened to find there are another 1 mn or more documents they need to review. The story is front-page, above-the-fold news at every major global business news outlet. Read: DOJ finds a mn more epstein files it needs to review.<\/a> <\/p>\n

Closer to home: <\/strong>Israel is warning it could attack Iran<\/a> once again \u2014 and Canada, the UK, Germany, and 11 other nations are condemning Israel<\/a> \u2019s plans to approve 19 more West Bank settlements.<\/p>\n

AND- <\/strong>Reuters is a bit concerned about US plans to make it easier for normies<\/a> to invest in private credit and crypto.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Plus: No, the prime minister didn\u2019t just promise to wipe-out the national debt \u201cin the coming days\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":678436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,349,1972,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-678435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-public-policy","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b84866d4-bbc1-4399-9f4e-31a7cf3d013a","order":"2","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/1252.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"It\u2019s interest rate day in Egypt, and pundits are still calling a cut in the central bank\u2019s final meeting of 2025","related_issue":[678433],"teaser":"Plus: No, the prime minister didn\u2019t just promise to wipe-out the national debt \u201cin the coming days\u201d"},"yoast_head":"\nIt\u2019s interest rate day, and pundits are still calling a cut - 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