{"id":677868,"date":"2025-12-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=677868"},"modified":"2025-12-24T12:10:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T12:10:47","slug":"the-post-imf-blueprint-how-the-government-plans-to-keep-fiscal-discipline-when-the-program-ends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/24\/the-post-imf-blueprint-how-the-government-plans-to-keep-fiscal-discipline-when-the-program-ends\/","title":{"rendered":"The post-IMF blueprint: How the government plans to keep fiscal discipline when the program ends"},"content":{"rendered":"

The<\/strong> Finance Ministry has begun drafting a state budget that marks a <\/strong>definitive end to the current era of economic emergency.<\/strong> The FY 2026-27 budget \u2014 set to be presented to Cabinet in preliminary form by late January \u2014 is being designed as a structural shift in fiscal policy, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Why this matters: <\/strong>This will be Egypt\u2019s first budget in years to operate largely independently of the IMF. With the current USD 8 bn program projected to wrap up next November, the new budget is being engineered to prove that the discipline of the last two years was a policy choice, not just a conditionality.<\/p>\n

\n

Fiscal discipline 2.0<\/p>\n

The budget will aim to lock in the austerity measures that <\/strong>gained the fund\u2019s approval this<\/a><\/strong>week<\/a><\/strong>.<\/strong> The strict ceiling on public investment will remain \u2014 and may even be lowered further \u2014 to clear the lane for private sector participation, while ministries are again being required to submit three-year budget projections to end the cycle of surprise supplemental appropriations.<\/p>\n

\n

Suez is the laboratory for the end of in-kind subsidies<\/p>\n

One of the most significant pieces of news in the draft budget is a concrete timeline for <\/strong>the transition <\/strong>from in-kind to <\/strong>cash-based<\/strong> subsidies. <\/strong>The government has selected Suez as the testing ground for a full switch to cash-based subsidies, the source tells us. Residents in the governorate will receive monthly cash-based allowances on smart cards redeemable at Supply Ministry outlets, replacing the current points system for bread and commodities. If the Suez pilot succeeds, the system will be rolled out nationwide over the subsequent two fiscal years.<\/p>\n

This is the latest signal yet that the state is moving ahead with dismantling the legacy subsidy system<\/strong> that has historically bled the budget and replacing it with a more targeted (and capped) cash-based model. The Sisi administration has had significant success with the Takafol and Karama programs, which have rolled out conditional cash payments to low-income households with children under the age of 18 as well as to the elderly, orphans, widows, and people with disabilities.<\/p>\n

\n

Don\u2019t bank on fixed fuel costs just yet<\/p>\n

Readers should also look past the headlines on energy prices. <\/strong>While the government has publicly stated that fuel prices will remain unchanged until October 2026, the budget drafting process suggests a more pragmatic reality. Our source indicates the new budget explicitly does not rule out further price adjustments if global oil markets threaten to widen the deficit again.<\/p>\n

Subsidies will be strictly limited to LPG cylinders (better known as the anbooba) and <\/strong>diesel.<\/strong> The goal is to prevent the treasury from ever again bearing the burden of the cost differential between global prices and local pumps.<\/p>\n

\n

Trading subsidies for salaries<\/p>\n

To cushion low-income earners, <\/strong>the state is preparing a comprehensive social package <\/strong>that includes wage increases and targeted incentives. <\/strong>The government is explicitly redirecting savings from subsidy reform into direct income support, a move that carries significant implications for the private sector. If the public sector hikes wages to match inflation, private operators will likely face renewed pressure to adjust salary bands.<\/p>\n

ALSO TO COME- <\/strong>A revised tax policy document is currently being drafted to reflect recent development targets and IMF feedback, with a release window now set between June and September 2026, a second senior government official tells us.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The upcoming fiscal year\u2019s budget includes a concrete timeline for the transition to cash-based subsidies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":677869,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[279,104,72,276,272,278,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-677868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-budget-watch","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","tag-imf","tag-state-budget","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"28f4a27e-34c5-4c8c-83a9-41c0b579e7b7","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/1170.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The post-IMF blueprint: How the government plans to keep fiscal discipline when the program ends","related_issue":[677862],"teaser":"The upcoming fiscal year\u2019s budget includes a concrete timeline for the transition to cash-based subsidies"},"yoast_head":"\nThe post-IMF blueprint: How the government plans to keep fiscal discipline when the program ends - 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That\u2019s more or less on par with the 5.5-5.7% growth rate the government expects for the current fiscal year, which ends in June. Our growth is expected\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "BUDGET WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"BUDGET WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/budget-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/90.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570771,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/14\/house-planning-committee-to-review-unified-budget-act-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":677868,"position":3},"title":"House Planning Committee to review Unified Budget Act in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"LEGISLATION WATCH- House Planning Committee to review Unified Budget Act in June: The House of Representatives\u2019 Planning and Budget Committee will review the Finance Ministry\u2019s draft Unified Budget Act in June, committee chairman Hussein Eissa told Al Mal. Background: The draft bill, unveiled by the ministry in January, merges legislation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588541,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/13\/fy-2023-24-budget-passes-the-house\/","url_meta":{"origin":677868,"position":4},"title":"FY 2023-24 budget passes the House","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PLUS: Unified Budget Act exec regs to be issued \u201cwithin weeks,\u201d says Maait","rel":"","context":"In "LEGISLATION WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"LEGISLATION WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/legislation-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/641.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561467,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/egypt-on-surer-fiscal-ground-more-debt-relief-agreed-imf-backs-wealth-tax\/","url_meta":{"origin":677868,"position":5},"title":"Egypt on surer fiscal ground + more debt relief agreed + IMF backs wealth tax","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF upgrades Egypt budget projections in latest outlook: Egypt\u2019s public finances have withstood the test of covid-19 better than previously thought, new projections released by the IMF indicate. Figures in the Fund\u2019s latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf) suggest that the outlook for Egypt\u2019s fiscal position has improved over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677868"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":678045,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677868\/revisions\/678045"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/677862"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/677869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677868"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=677868"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=677868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}