{"id":677728,"date":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/23\/no-more-buts-as-imf-signs-off-on-key-reviews-of-our-usd-8-bn-assistance-package\/"},"modified":"2025-12-23T04:14:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T04:14:59","slug":"no-more-buts-as-imf-signs-off-on-key-reviews-of-our-usd-8-bn-assistance-package","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/23\/no-more-buts-as-imf-signs-off-on-key-reviews-of-our-usd-8-bn-assistance-package\/","title":{"rendered":"No more \u201cbuts\u201d as IMF signs off on key reviews of our USD 8 bn assistance package"},"content":{"rendered":"

The IMF has signed off on two key reviews of our USD 8 bn assistance <\/strong>package \u2014 and it <\/strong>should be music to the business community\u2019s ears.<\/strong> Critically, the tone of the IMF\u2019s statement<\/a>, released overnight and attributed to mission chief Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, is sharply different from the communiqu\u00e9 that accompanied the last review of the program, on which the IMF board signed-off on exactly one year ago this week.<\/p>\n

The news:<\/strong> The Madbouly government and IMF staff have reached agreement on the make-or-break fifth and sixth reviews under our so-called extended fund facility (EFF). They also reached agreement on the first review under a parallel resilience and sustainability package (RSF). The staff-level agreements now need approval by the IMF\u2019s executive board.<\/p>\n

The result should be c. USD 3.8 bn flowing into the government\u2019s coffers<\/strong> when the IMF\u2019s executive board signs off on the reviews in January (we\u2019re not on the calendar yet), including c. USD 2.5 bn from the fifth and sixth reviews of the EFF and another USD 1.3 bn from the first review of the RSF. That would bring total disbursements under the EFF so far to around USD 5.7 bn. <\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>The IMF is significantly front-loading funding here, giving Cabinet a nice liquidity cushion at the start of 2026 and effectively telling the Economic Committee it doesn\u2019t need to continue to sing for its supper \u2014 provided it stays the course on reforms. <\/p>\n

The statement opens with a line that would have been unthinkable 18 months ago:<\/strong> \u201cStabilization efforts have delivered important gains and the Egyptian economy is showing signs of robust growth.\u201d There\u2019s no hedging, no \u201chowever\u201d or \u201cbut\u201d lurking in the next sentence. The IMF is saying \u2014 in plain English \u2014 that Cabinet\u2019s strategy is working.<\/p>\n

The hard numbers back it up: GDP growth accelerated to 4.4% in FY 2024-25<\/strong>, up from 2.4% the previous year, with 1Q of the current fiscal year hitting 5.3%, the statement reads. The current account deficit narrowed on the back of strong remittances, rising tourism receipts, and good non-oil export growth. Non-resident holdings of Egyptian T-bills have climbed to around USD 30 bn and FX reserves stand at USD 56.9 bn \u2014 a figure that would have seemed aspirational not long ago.<\/p>\n

Even the criticism is gentler as the Fund flags areas that still need work. <\/strong>The ratio of taxes raised to GDP, Hollar says, remains \u201cmodest by international standards\u201d at 12.2%, disinflation is \u201cnot yet firmly entrenched\u201d (perhaps no rate cut on Thursday<\/a>, after all?) state-owned banks require \u201ccontinued robust governance practices,\u201d and Cabinet needs to \u201caccelerate\u201d the privatization program. <\/p>\n

The IMF is also flagging the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation as a source of <\/strong>fiscal risk, but the IMF\u2019s overall framing on Egypt has shifted. <\/strong>Gone are the urgent warnings, replaced by items on a to-do list for a country that\u2019s broadly on track.<\/p>\n

Members of the business community consulted by the Fund during its time in Cairo said <\/strong>nice things about Cabinet\u2019s progress on key reforms<\/strong>, the IMF suggests, writing that, \u201cprivate sector participants have acknowledged the results already achieved\u201d on \u201ctrade facilitation\u201d and tax reform. The statement also notes we\u2019re showing signs of \u201cfiscal discipline\u201d (ie: no longer spending like sailors on shore leave) and makes direct reference to the \u201cNational Narrative for Economic Development,\u201d Cabinet\u2019s new framework to put the private sector in the driver\u2019s seat for the economy.<\/p>\n

\n

The sentiment shift is the big news here<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> To appreciate how different this statement is, you need to read it alongside the Fund\u2019s previous communiqu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no longer about a crisis \u2014 or fear of backsliding. <\/strong>When the IMF reached staff-level agreement on the first and second reviews in March 2024, the statement was crisis-mode prose. It led with \u201csignificant macroeconomic challenges that have become more complex to manage,\u201d referenced \u201cpolicy slippages\u201d that needed to be corrected, and emphasized the \u201cdifficult\u201d and \u201cchallenging\u201d environment at every turn.<\/p>\n

By June 2024 and the third review, the tone had softened slightly<\/strong>, but still came with plenty of hedges. The Fund acknowledged that \u201cefforts are beginning to deliver an improved outlook\u201d \u2014 but immediately pivoted to \u201cdownside risks surround the economic outlook\u201d and called for reforms to be \u201caccelerated.\u201d<\/p>\n

A year ago this week, the fourth review brought more of the same:<\/strong> \u201cdifficult external conditions,\u201d \u201cchallenging domestic economic environment,\u201d and repeated calls for \u201cfurther efforts,\u201d \u201cfurther reforms,\u201d and \u201cmore decisive efforts\u201d on divestment and leveling the playing field.<\/p>\n

A year later, the warnings are still there, but they\u2019re no longer the lead.<\/strong> The Fund now opens with what\u2019s working and buries the concerns deeper in the text. For a document that will be read closely by investors, rating agencies, and the diplomatic community, that structural choice matters. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s driving the shift? <\/strong>Three things stand out:<\/p>\n

#1- Macro indicators are moving in the right direction.<\/strong> Growth is accelerating, inflation is coming down, the balance of payments has improved nicely despite the Suez Canal headwinds (and even there, things are showing signs of changing<\/a>), and reserves are at comfortable levels. IMF staff are are responding to data, not softening their tone for diplomatic reasons.<\/p>\n

#2- IMF staff were told that Banque du Caire is heading to IPO in 2Q 2026 <\/strong>under CEO Hussein Abaza, as we reported last week. Abaza is one of the private sector execs most trusted by global investors thanks from his years running the investor relations program at EGX-listed bellwether CIB, where he was most recently CEO. We think that\u2019s helped change the IMF\u2019s tone on privatization: The state\u2019s economic footprint and the slow pace of asset sales have been sticking points in the relationship for years. Staff there now seem to believe the government is serious about following through.<\/p>\n

#3- The timing. The IMF program will wrap up in December 2026.<\/strong> With the fifth and sixth reviews now behind us, we\u2019re entering the final stretch \u2014 and the Fund seems confident that the finish line is in sight. This is no longer a program at risk of going off track, but one that\u2019s delivering results.<\/p>\n

\n

What\u2019s next<\/p>\n

We still need to make it through two revies.<\/strong> The seventh is scheduled for March 2026 and could unlock another USD 1.25 bn and the eighth and final review is slated for November 2026, with a further USD 1.25 bn on the table.<\/p>\n

Why November?<\/strong> The final review was originally scheduled for September 2026, but was pushed back at the government\u2019s request to allow more breathing room for the final set of structural benchmarks. That suggests both sides want to land this program cleanly \u2014 and that the Fund is willing to give us the space to do so. That would have been just about unthinkable a year ago. <\/p>\n

BACKGROUND:<\/strong> The extended fund facility is the IMF\u2019s main lending instrument for countries facing medium-term balance of payments problems \u2014 it\u2019s designed for situations requiring deeper structural reforms rather than short-term liquidity support. Our current USD 8 bn EFF was approved in December 2022 at USD 3 bn, then expanded in March 2024 after Israel\u2019s war on Gaza and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping made life more complicated. The resilience and sustainability facility is a newer, parallel instrument focused specifically on climate-related reforms \u2014 it can provide up to an additional USD 1.3 bn to support decarbonization efforts and climate finance. The two programs run in tandem, with RSF reviews piggybacking on EFF milestones.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fund\u2019s statement reads like a progress report, not a warning \u2014 and that's new<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":677729,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7335],"tags":[72,12188,272,12407,12389],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-677728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-extended-fund-facility","tag-imf","tag-macroeconomics","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"114c99fa-3568-4f63-b105-940b9b815159","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/121.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The IMF\u2019s tone is sharply different than a year ago as it signs off on two key reviews of Egypt\u2019s USD 8 bn assistance package","related_issue":[677723],"teaser":"The Fund\u2019s statement reads like a progress report, not a warning \u2014 and that's new"},"yoast_head":"\nNo more \u201cbuts\u201d as IMF signs off on key reviews of our USD 8 bn assistance package - 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An IMF delegation was (virtually) in townover the past two weeks for the second review of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/229.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637221,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/12\/imf-reaches-agreement-with-egypt-to-disburse-usd-2-bn\/","url_meta":{"origin":677728,"position":2},"title":"IMF reaches agreement with Egypt to disburse USD 2 bn","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF reaches agreement with Egypt to disburse USD 2 bn: The S&P\u2019s announcement came just hours after the IMF announced that it had reached a staff level agreement with the government on disbursing the USD 2 bn tranche of its USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility. \u201cEgypt\u2019s economy continues to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546412,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/an-agreement-with-the-imf-is-coming-within-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":677728,"position":3},"title":"An agreement with the IMF is coming \u201cwithin months\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A fresh IMF program could be sealed in a few months: The government expects to reach an agreement with the IMF on a fresh support package \u201cwithin months\u201d, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday at a presser (watch, runtime:2:07:15).What IMF program? 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