{"id":676966,"date":"2025-12-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/09\/fitch-ratings-sees-neutral-outlook-for-mena-sovereigns-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-12-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-ratings-sees-neutral-outlook-for-mena-sovereigns-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/09\/fitch-ratings-sees-neutral-outlook-for-mena-sovereigns-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings sees \u201cneutral\u201d outlook for MENA sovereigns in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings has a mixed outlook for MENA sovereigns in 2026<\/strong>, with the ratings agency expecting steady oil prices, solid growth, and ongoing fiscal reforms, while taking into account persistent political and geopolitical risks, according to its Middle East and North Africa Sovereigns Outlook 2026 report, seen by EnterpriseAM. Fitch also predicts that economic diversification efforts backed by governments and government-related entities will support stronger GDP growth. This combination of factors led Fitch Ratings to pencil in a \u201cneutral\u201d outlook for sovereigns in the region.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Eleven of the 14 MENA sovereigns rated by Fitch carry stable outlooks.<\/strong> The outlook for Israel and Bahrain remain negative, Oman holds its positive outlook, and Tunisia is the only sovereign in the region to see a rating action so far this year, with the country receiving a ratings upgrade. <\/p>\n

O<\/strong>verall risks remain contained <\/strong>de<\/strong>spite the uncertainty of the Gaza ceasefire and Israel\u2019s<\/strong> escalating aggression in Lebanon<\/strong>, as well as the potential of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel. Jordan and Egypt are expected to benefit from increased regional stability, boosting sentiment and tourism inflows. For Egypt, the Houthis scaling down their attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea is expected to have a positive effect on the country\u2019s fiscal and external position, Fitch notes.<\/p>\n

Improved fiscal and external position is expected for some non-oil exporting countries<\/strong>, including Egypt, whose current account deficit is seen narrowing while maintaining a flexible exchange rate. Morocco will also see its current account deficit slightly narrowing on the back of tax reforms and lower capex spending. Jordan\u2019s fiscal deficit is projected to remain \u201cbroadly stable,\u201d with reforms expected to support the country\u2019s external position. However, for Tunisia, Fitch projects a narrowed deficit, but does not see \u201cmeaningful fiscal reform.\u201d<\/p>\n

For non-oil exporters<\/strong>, reforms are expected to support economic and fiscal positions, though weak growth and social pressures will limit progress on reducing high debt burdens.<\/p>\n

THE GCC VIEW-<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia and the UAE\u2019s economies are expected to register the highest levels of<\/strong> growth in 2026<\/strong>, largely on the back of higher oil output production. For the UAE, some emirates are expected to outpace the country\u2019s average growth in 2026, including Abu Dhabi (6.8%), which is expected to grow on the back of higher oil output, and Ras Al Khaimah (7.7%) thanks to increased investments. <\/p>\n

Inflation levels are expected to remain contained in the GCC<\/strong>, with low single digits readings despite some pressures stemming from increased rental prices, except for Saudi Arabia due to its rental freeze policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As for the oil story, the agency sees Brent crude at an average of USD 63-65 \/ bbl in 2026<\/strong>, slightly below 2025 levels but still above the fiscal breakeven price for most GCC producers except Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and \u2014 marginally \u2014 Oman. <\/p>\n

Fiscal conditions for most Opec members will remain unchanged \u2014 except for Saudi<\/strong> Arabia:<\/strong> Increased oil production will offset the impact of lower oil prices on Saudi Arabia and the UAE\u2019s revenues, Fitch said in the report. Meanwhile, non-oil activity and fiscal policy measures are anticipated to boost non-oil fiscal revenues. However, Saudi Arabia is set to exercise greater fiscal discipline, as central government debt is set to rise to 33% of GDP in 2026, up from 30.5% in 2025.<\/p>\n

Breakeven oil prices differ across the GCC, hinting at different debt trajectories:<\/strong> Saudi Arabia is expected to increase its spending, thus accumulating more debt. In the UAE, government-related entities are expected to increase their contribution in the country\u2019s development. Meanwhile, Oman is focused on reducing its debt and consolidating sovereign balances, Qatar has lowered spending levels following the World Cup, and Bahrain\u2019s fiscal position remains uncertain, according to Fitch. <\/p>\n

T<\/strong>he GCC is projected to maintain its position as the largest issuer in international debt<\/strong> market<\/strong>s in 2026<\/strong>, due to the persistent need for investment financing and funding for the diversification projects, especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Most Asian markets are in the red<\/strong>, as they track Wall Street losses ahead of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow. The only outlier is Japan\u2019s Nikkei, which is up nearly 0.2%. Wall Street futures, meanwhile, are a little higher, boosted by a small jump in Nvidia\u2019s shares in afterhours trading. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

41,963<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +41.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,626<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -11.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,937<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,998<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +16.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,847<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +16.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,645<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +18.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,726<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +16.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.86<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,224<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 90,053<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

974.04<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +25.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +8.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+8.1% (YTD: -4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.5% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 7.3 bn (41.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 41.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emaar Misr (+3.7%), Telecom Egypt (+3.2%), and ADIB (+2.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Eastern Company (-2.6%), Qalaa Holdings (-2.6%), and TMG Holding (-1.4%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Arabian Cement will distribute a cash dividend of EGP 2.94 per share on its 2024 <\/strong>earnings<\/strong>, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The payout will be distributed on 24 December, with the settlement date set for 21 December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economic diversification efforts will support GDP growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":676967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[104,72,119,905,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-676966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9325b83b-181b-4885-92f6-66c14accd928","order":"11","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/242.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch Ratings sees \u201cneutral\u201d outlook for MENA sovereigns in 2026","related_issue":[676948],"teaser":"Economic diversification efforts will support GDP growth","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/12\/.8d964b99-3b6f-470a-9077-b454f655eaf0.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings sees \u201cneutral\u201d outlook for MENA sovereigns in 2026 - 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The ratings agency also removed it from its rating watch negative list, reflecting its view of diminishing near-term risks to its credit profile, especially its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking + Finance"","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/fitch-affirms-credit-ratings-of-credit-agricole-national-bank-of-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":676966,"position":2},"title":"Fitch affirms credit ratings of Credit Agricole, National Bank of Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating for Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) at 'AA+\u2019 with a \u2018stable outlook,\u2019 the agency said in a press release. 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The assessment was reached by the lender\u2019s \u201cexcellent\u201d capitalization and low risk profile that has shown itself to be \u201cresilient to negative pressures from the covid-19 outbreak,\u201d the ratings agency said.","rel":"","context":"In "Energy"","block_context":{"text":"Energy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/energy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567911,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/10\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-10-december-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":676966,"position":4},"title":"What the markets are doing on 10 December 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The EGX30 was flat yesterday on turnover of EGP 1.7 bn. Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 21.1% YTD.In the green: Sodic (+4.2%), Eastern Company (+4.2%) and Orascom Development Egypt (+1.8%).In the red: Egyptian Iron & Steel (-3.5%), Export Development Bank (-3.1%) and GB Auto (-2.8%).It\u2019s a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564979,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/fitch-gives-long-term-fx-debt-outlook-a-%f0%9f%91%8d\/","url_meta":{"origin":676966,"position":5},"title":"Fitch gives long-term FX debt outlook a ?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. 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