{"id":676643,"date":"2025-12-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/03\/pundits-pencil-in-rate-cut-next-week-as-fed-divisions-widen-on-where-the-cycle-should-stop\/"},"modified":"2025-12-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T00:00:00","slug":"pundits-pencil-in-rate-cut-next-week-as-fed-divisions-widen-on-where-the-cycle-should-stop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/03\/pundits-pencil-in-rate-cut-next-week-as-fed-divisions-widen-on-where-the-cycle-should-stop\/","title":{"rendered":"Pundits pencil-in rate cut next week as Fed divisions widen on where the cycle should stop"},"content":{"rendered":"

The see-sawing of expectations for what\u2019s to come at next week\u2019s US Fed<\/strong>eral Reserve interest rate meeting continues<\/strong>, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut now at 89.2%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 63% a month ago. This would come on the heels of two 25 bps cuts in September<\/a> and October<\/a>, with the latest cut bringing the target range down to 3.75-4% as policymakers grappled with weak labor data and murky economic indicators in the wake of the government shutdown.<\/p>\n

This also comes as a lack of consensus among Fed officials deepe<\/strong>ns.<\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted \u201cstrongly differing views\u201d within the rate-setting committee over whether to focus on price stability or maximum employment.<\/p>\n

Policymakers are also split about what a neutral rate \u2014 the level that neither st<\/strong>imulates nor restrains the economy \u2014 would be<\/strong> ahead of Fed officials giving their predictions next week, with estimates diverging more than at any point since 2012, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Estimations from September put it between 2.6-3.9%, with 19 officials coming up with 11 different predictions. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s always some disagreement over where the neutral rate<\/strong> \u2014 also known as r-star \u2014 is, especially because it can only be inferred and later judged in the rearview mirror, but this time, the degree of disagreement is more intense \u2014 and potentially, more consequential. \u201cIt starts to become potentially a binding constraint for some of the more hawkish Fed members,\u201d Stephen Stanley, chief US economist for Santander, said. \u201cIt definitely means that each successive cut becomes harder and harder.\u201d<\/p>\n

AI + tariffs influencing the outlook: <\/strong>Broader AI adoption could lift productivity and push the neutral rate higher, according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Investment in AI, along with supportive fiscal and monetary policies, were cited as factors helping the global economy cope with US President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff agenda, according to an OECD report cited by Bloomberg<\/a>. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on the other hand, maintains that US policies like tariffs and tax cuts may be pushing neutral rates lower, supporting the case for more easing.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead: <\/strong>A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve in 2026 could also reshape views on the neutral rate, with incoming policymakers expected to lean toward lower interest rates \u2014 adding another layer of uncertainty to the path of future policy.<\/p>\n

Speaking of: <\/strong>US President Donald Trump is set to announce the new Fed Chair early next year, he said last week, and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a top contender<\/a>. His election would grant Trump a 5-2 majority on the board of the central bank. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the green<\/strong> after Wall Street indices rallied yesterday, with South Korea\u2019s Kospi leading gains with a c.1.1% rise, Japan\u2019s Nikkei climbing more than 0.7%, and China\u2019s CSI 300 adding 0.2%. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng was the only outlier, dipping 0.7%. Over on Wall Street<\/strong>, futures point to another strong open on the heels of the tech-fueled rally. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40,626<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +36.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.57<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,536<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -12.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,747<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,837<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +13.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,829<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,702<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +18.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,686<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.86<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,250<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 91,655<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+6.0% (YTD: -2.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

971.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +25.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.91<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +8.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.8% (YTD: -4.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.2% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 7.8 bn (53.1% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 36.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>CIB (+1.8%), Credit Agricole (+1.7%), and Rameda (+1.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Qalaa Holdings (-4.7%), Misr Cement (-3.8%), and EFG Holding (-2.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve in 2026 could reshape views on the neutral rate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":676644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,349,122,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-676643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c04a3541-91d6-40b2-9fdb-ceb5ac517c62","order":"11","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/135.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Pundits 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