{"id":676568,"date":"2025-12-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/02\/us-equities-will-keep-leading-in-2026-and-commodities-are-entering-a-new-demand-cycle\/"},"modified":"2025-12-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T00:00:00","slug":"us-equities-will-keep-leading-in-2026-and-commodities-are-entering-a-new-demand-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/02\/us-equities-will-keep-leading-in-2026-and-commodities-are-entering-a-new-demand-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"US equities will keep leading in 2026 \u2014 and commodities are entering a new demand cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

A clearer macro backdrop, falling inflation, and steady earnings growth could <\/strong>set up a stronger year for global markets in 2026<\/strong>, according to UBS\u2019s lates<\/a>t Year Ahead outlook<\/a>. The bank expects global equities to rise by around 15% through next year, led by resilient corporate profitability and long-term investment themes such as AI-driven power demand, healthcare innovation, and the energy transition. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The US is still the engine of global equity returns<\/strong>, says UBS, which anchors its 2026 outlook in the US, where strong earnings momentum \u2014 including a prediction the S&P 500\u2019s earnings per share will rise 10% y-o-y to USD 305 \u2014 supports the bank\u2019s call that the index could reach 7.7k by year-end. The Magnificent 7 remain central to that view, with UBS estimating that the group will contribute nearly half of earnings growth next year as AI adoption, higher corporate investment, and supportive policy continue to drive profitability.<\/p>\n

UBS also flags several sectors that it thinks are entering stronger phases.<\/strong> Healthcare stands out thanks to policy stability and the continued boom in obesity meds. Utilities are poised to benefit from rising power demand tied to AI infrastructure, while their valuations remain at an 18% reduction from historical averages. Banks are expected to deliver more stable returns, with sector-wide return on equity rising toward 11.5% and balance sheets still looking solid.<\/p>\n

Europe also shows encouraging signs.<\/strong> UBS upgraded Europe to \u201cAttractive,\u201d pointing to a sharper earnings rebound \u2014 predicted to be up 7% y-o-y in 2026 and 18% y-o-y in 2027 \u2014 and cheaper valuations, with equities still trading at a 22% reduction from historical norms. Easier financial conditions after 200 bps of European Central Bank cuts and Germany\u2019s investment plans also strengthen the case.<\/p>\n

Investors should also look towards emerging markets<\/strong>, with UBS highlighting emerging markets as offering a way to get diverse exposure to AI and semiconductors outside of the US, as tech now makes up over 40% of the MSCI EM index. Fed easing and a softer USD should help deliver \u201chigh single-digit\u201d returns by end-2026, according to the lender.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s improvements in tech innovation, stronger domestic liquidity, and resilient <\/strong>earnings have set the stage for further upside. <\/strong>Valuations are above historical averages, but remain well below prior cycle peaks, leaving room for expansion as fundamentals improve. Policy continues to favor advanced manufacturing and technology under the Five-Year Plan, while rising domestic investor participation is adding support. UBS sees US-China tensions as a source of volatility \u2014 but also as a chance to add exposure on dips.<\/p>\n

Commodities are another bright spot in the 2026 outlook.<\/strong> UBS expects attractive returns across major commodity groups due to tightening supply-demand balances and ongoing geopolitical risk. In precious metals, the bank sees continued upside supported by persistent official-sector buying, fiscal uncertainty, and global risk hedging. In energy, 2025 underperformance sets up a rebound once non-OPEC+ supply growth slows and demand recovers through mid-2026. Industrial metals \u2014 led by copper \u2014 should benefit from structural shortages tied to the energy transition and recent supply disruptions. Agriculture, which slumped through 2025, becomes more appealing next year as tight cocoa and coffee markets, weather risks, and low livestock inventories support prices.<\/p>\n

The bank recommends maintaining 30-70% of portfolios in equities depending on risk <\/strong>appetite<\/strong>, with the US representing at least half of any global allocation. Up to 30% of equity exposure can be dedicated to long-term themes like AI infrastructure, health-span innovation, and decarbonization. Commodities may play a tactical role of up to 5% in diversified portfolios, while factor-based and systematic strategies can complement regional positioning.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning<\/strong>, with the Kospi leading gains, up 1.6%, and the Nikkei and Hang Seng trailing behind. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40,694<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +36.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,543<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -12.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,747<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,837<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +13.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,813<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +15.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,703<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +18.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,667<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +15.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 63.27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,236<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 86,604<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: -7.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

972.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +25.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +8.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.4% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.2% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 7.7 bn (52.7% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 36.8% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Qalaa Holdings (+10.6%), ADIB (+4.4%), and Beltone Holding (+2.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Telecom Egypt (-2.1%), GB Corp (-1.6%), and Palm Hills Developments (-1.6%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UBS\u2019 latest outlook paints a bullish picture for equities in the US, Europe, Japan, China, EMs in 2026, and recommends commodities exposure<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":676569,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-676568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0d14e988-002c-4ba8-ae3f-0f1a1626aabd","order":"11","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/64.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"UBS sees upside for US stocks next year as China stabilizes and commodity demand strengthens","related_issue":[676550],"teaser":"UBS\u2019 latest outlook paints a bullish picture for equities in the US, Europe, Japan, China, EMs in 2026, and recommends commodities exposure","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/12\/.89878535-5bca-4e28-b7b8-0876776d9191.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nUS equities will keep leading in 2026 \u2014 and commodities are entering a new demand cycle - 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