{"id":676489,"date":"2025-12-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/01\/ci-capitals-amr-helal-on-why-egypt-is-near-a-market-revival-but-incentives-must-reward-real-listings\/"},"modified":"2025-12-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T00:00:00","slug":"ci-capitals-amr-helal-on-why-egypt-is-near-a-market-revival-but-incentives-must-reward-real-listings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/01\/ci-capitals-amr-helal-on-why-egypt-is-near-a-market-revival-but-incentives-must-reward-real-listings\/","title":{"rendered":"CI Capital's Amr Helal on why Egypt is near a market revival, but incentives must reward real listings"},"content":{"rendered":"

Coffee with: CI Capital's CEO of the sell-side investment bank, Amr Helal: <\/strong>EnterpriseAM sat down with CI Capital's CEO of the sell-side investment bank, Amr Helal (LinkedIn<\/a>), for a follow-up interview after his panel at the EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum to discuss what it will take to revive Egypt\u2019s capital markets, from tax reform and IPO readiness to liquidity, foreign participation, and long-term depth.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

After years of subdued listings and thin institutional participation, Egypt\u2019s capital <\/strong>markets may finally be on the cusp of a structural revival<\/strong> \u2014 one that combines fiscal discipline, tax reform, and renewed private-sector engagement. But getting there will require a delicate balance between encouraging listings and preserving fiscal integrity.<\/p>\n

Helal believes the finance minister\u2019s latest push to incentivize listings could be the <\/strong>catalyst Egypt\u2019s equity market needs.<\/strong> But he cautions that the design of those incentives will determine whether the coming IPO wave will be sustainable \u2014 or merely a replay of the 1990s. \u201cIn the early days of the capital market, when the government wanted to encourage listings, it gave a lot of incentives \u2014 primarily tax incentives,\u201d Helal recalled.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat everyone figured out over time was that a lot of those companies listed just to get <\/strong>the tax break, not really for liquidity or to be actively traded<\/strong>,\u201d he explained. The outcome, he said, was predictable: the government gradually withdrew many of those benefits. This time, Helal expects a more balanced approach that rewards genuine participation rather than opportunistic listings.<\/p>\n

The cornerstone of any new listing drive, Helal argued, must be tax clarity.<\/strong> He suggested that transactions which don\u2019t generate cash-based returns \u2014 such as share swaps or corporate restructurings in preparation for an IPO \u2014 should not trigger immediate tax liabilities. \u201cIf a transaction is done on a non-cash basis, there should be no taxes, or at the very least, the taxes should be deferred or eliminated under certain criteria,\u201d he said. Taxing \u201cdry transactions,\u201d he added, discourages companies from restructuring into IPO-ready entities. <\/p>\n

ICYMI-<\/strong> A senior government official has recently told us that policymakers are working on an<\/a>incentives package<\/a> that will scrap the previously planned capital gains taxes, replace them with a unified 0.125% stamp duty for all investors, and include incentives for unlisted shares. The source also said that gains from new listings will be tax-exempt<\/p>\n

Helal also called for consolidated tax treatment for holding companies<\/strong>, saying Egypt\u2019s corporate landscape still suffers from \u201ctax leakages\u201d across subsidiaries. Eliminating multiple layers of dividend taxation would make restructuring more efficient, particularly for family-owned groups converting limited liability firms into joint-stock companies ahead of an IPO.<\/p>\n

Even with incentives, Helal acknowledged that not all companies are structurally <\/strong>prepared for the public markets.<\/strong> Beyond regulation and tax policy, the readiness of balance sheets and corporate governance frameworks remains uneven across sectors. \u201cWhat we need,\u201d he said, \u201cis the right sector, right company, right size, and right valuation.\u201d <\/p>\n

These \u201cfour Rs,\u201d as he calls them, form the checklist for attracting foreign capital back to <\/strong>the EGX. <\/strong>He cited healthcare, industrials, services, financials, and fintech as sectors with the most promising candidates. Egypt\u2019s manufacturing base \u2014 \u201cgoing on for over 100 years,\u201d he noted \u2014 provides a foundation for strong industrial stories, while household names in healthcare and consumer services could generate meaningful investor interest.<\/p>\n

Still, consolidation may be necessary to bring some players to IPO scale. <\/strong>While family businesses typically favor organic growth, Helal said the presence of private equity investors often shifts that mindset toward mergers and acquisitions \u2014 a dynamic that could accelerate listings in coming years.<\/p>\n

The recent monetary pivot is also a major factor. <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s record-high interest rates \u2014 at times near 30% \u2014 had frozen long-term investment, with both corporates and investors opting for short-term, low-risk instruments. \u201cWould I borrow at 30% to fund long-term capex? Probably not,\u201d Helal said. Similarly, when investors can earn over 20% riskfree, \u201cwhy should you take the risk of investing in public equities?\u201d Now, with inflation easing and rates trending downward, the calculus is shifting. \u201cWith interest rates coming down, it becomes more conducive for companies to start investing for the long term,\u201d he said. \u201cInvestors will start gravitating toward riskier investments that have the potential to make higher returns.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite recent market activity, Helal remains concerned about the composition of <\/strong>liquidity on the EGX.<\/strong> \u201c75-85% of daily trading is done by retail investors,\u201d he said. \u201cThere is liquidity, but there is no depth.\u201d Retail investors, he explained, tend to be news-driven and short-term oriented, focused on trading rather than long-term value. Foreign participation, meanwhile, fell below 10%.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor a well-functioning market \u2026 you need retail investors for liquidity and turnover, but <\/strong>you also need medium- and long-term investors \u2014 asset managers, ins. companies, pension funds<\/strong>,\u201d Helal said. Rebuilding that balance and regaining the confidence of foreign institutions will be critical as Egypt prepares to bring more sizable IPOs to market. The benchmark, Helal said, should be offerings of at least USD 200 mn, large enough to attract global institutions and signal depth to investors abroad.<\/p>\n

To address the structural gaps in liquidity, the EGX and the Financial Regulatory <\/strong>Authority are preparing to introduce derivatives and short-selling<\/strong> \u2014 a move Helal believes could materially expand the market\u2019s toolkit. \u201cThe more financial products you have, the more depth and liquidity you get,\u201d he said. Derivatives, in particular, will allow investors to hedge risks and express market views without direct exposure to underlying equities. While the products will mainly target institutional investors, Helal noted that retail investors would benefit indirectly through new fund structures and hedged products managed by asset managers.<\/p>\n

At the macro level, Helal sees Egypt\u2019s appeal to foreign investors rooted in three <\/strong>interconnected stories <\/strong>\u2014 the consumer base, import substitution, and export competitiveness. \u201cEgypt has 100+ mn consumers,\u201d he said. With inflation easing and disposable incomes expected to recover, domestic demand could become a key growth engine. That\u2019s complemented by improving cost competitiveness, which supports import substitution and export-led growth. \u201cThe export play,\u201d Helal said, \u201cis driven by competitive cost structures, geographic advantage, and existing trade agreements with Europe, the US, and Africa.\u201d Industries with natural FX earnings \u2014 such as logistics, ports, and tourism \u2014 will continue to act as hedges against currency volatility.<\/p>\n

Many foreign investors still view the IMF program as the linchpin of Egypt\u2019s reform <\/strong>credibility. <\/strong>Helal, however, argued that the current phase of fiscal and structural reform is domestically owned. \u201cAs the government has said, it\u2019s a locally designed program with the support of the IMF,\u201d he noted. The ongoing fiscal consolidation, removal of subsidies, and widening of social safety nets are, he said, signs of a \u201cvery positive\u201d policy direction that should outlast the current agreement. While investor memories of past currency management are \u201cstill fresh,\u201d recent exchange-rate movements suggest a genuinely floated currency, Helal said. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen the EGP strengthen and weaken against the USD based on flows,\u201d he added. \u201cThat gives you an indication this is not managed as such.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the government\u2019s privatization pipeline, Helal expects multiple state-backed listings <\/strong>before June 2026.<\/strong> Recent talk of specific companies going first, he said, should not be seen as exclusive \u2014 several assets are being prepared for market in parallel. The challenge, as always, lies in valuation and valuation expectations. Helal described the valuation process as \u201cpart science, part art,\u201d guided by independent financial advisor assessments, but ultimately determined by investor sentiment and comparative metrics.<\/p>\n

For successful offerings, he urges to \u201cleave a little bit of money on the table.\u201d<\/strong> Pricing IPOs with upside potential, he said, builds confidence and supports long-term market health. \u201cLet people make money and make returns,\u201d he said. \u201cBe long-term greedy rather than trying to maximize gains on day one.\u201d Institutional investors, he added, will benchmark new Egyptian listings against both local and regional peers, adjusting for growth, market dynamics, and earnings multiples. \u201cYou cannot just take what\u2019s trading in another market and apply it,\u201d he said. \u201cYou need to adjust for that.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for CI Capital, Helal said the firm has \u201ca full and growing pipeline\u201d of IPO mandates <\/strong>expected to come to market over the next 12 months. <\/strong>He expects 2026 to mark a clear shift in Egypt\u2019s capital markets. \u201cWe think 2026 will be a good year,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to move beyond the carry trade and back to equities.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We need to move beyond the carry trade and back to equities<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":676490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8231],"tags":[102,136,335,72,119],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-676489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agreements-and-mous-totalling-eur-67-7-bn-inked-at-egypt-eu-investment-conference","tag-capital-markets","tag-ci-capital","tag-coffee-with","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"890c144a-6702-4e47-876a-2f122d09d779","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/6.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CI Capital's Amr Helal on why Egypt is near a market revival, but incentives must reward real listings","related_issue":[676479],"teaser":"We need to move beyond the carry trade and back to equities","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/12\/.50dd87d7-5259-4109-a897-4b8a440c0b90.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCI Capital's Amr Helal on why Egypt is near a market revival, but incentives must reward real listings - 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