{"id":676015,"date":"2025-11-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/23\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-following-october-uptick-in-inflation\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-following-october-uptick-in-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/23\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-following-october-uptick-in-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE leaves interest rates unchanged following October uptick in inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank <\/strong>of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates <\/strong>unchanged during its seventh meeting of the year last Thursday<\/strong>, according to a statement<\/a>(pdf)<\/a>. The overnight deposit rate stands at 21.00%, the lending rate at 22.00%, and the main operation and discount rates at 21.50%.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The decision \u201creflects the committee\u2019s updated assessment of inflation dynamics and <\/strong>outlook since the previous MPC meeting<\/strong>,\u201d the central bank committee said. It noted that both headline and core inflation accelerated \u2014 particularly the monthly readings. The committee added that the decision is intended to contain inflationary pressures, guide inflation back to a downward trajectory, and anchor expectations.<\/p>\n

Not all <\/strong>analysts polled by EnterpriseAM<\/a><\/strong> last week predicted the move<\/strong>, with five out of the eleven we spoke to forecasting a hold, while four predicted a 50-100 bps cut. Deutsche Bank said it anticipated the move given the recent pickup in both headline and core inflation and the likely pass-through from the mid-October fuel price hike, which they said justified a wait-and-see approach, according to a statement from the lender seen by EnterpriseAM. Economist Ali Metwally said the decision was \u201ccompletely aligned with the macro signals we\u2019ve been seeing in recent months,\u201d arguing that the CBE is prioritizing stability after several rounds of easing earlier this year.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Annual urban inflation rate rose 0.8 percentage points in October<\/a> to 12.5%, driven mainly by higher fuel, food, and beverage prices.<\/p>\n

The CBE expects inflation to continue rising through the remainder of the year amid <\/strong>higher energy prices<\/strong>, before easing in the second half of 2026 to meet its 7% (\u00b12 pp) target by year-end. The bank flagged risks to the outlook from both global and local factors, including higher-than-expected fiscal adjustments, persistent services inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n

Analysts seem to mostly agree. <\/strong>Capital Economics expects inflation to average 13% y-o-y in 4Q 2025. Beltone Holding\u2019s Head of Research Ahmed Hafez sees headline inflation rising to 14% in November and December, reflecting higher fuel prices and a potential VAT hike on cigarettes. Meanwhile, EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha sees inflation coming in at 14.1% this month before edging up to 14.3%, noting that rent adjustments could push it higher. <\/p>\n

By the end of 2026, CI Capital expects inflation to fall to 9% as fiscal, monetary, and <\/strong>external conditions improve<\/strong>, allowing Egypt to hit the upper end of the CBE\u2019s target range. Deutsche Bank projects average inflation at 12.3% next year, saying this could help maintain attractive real interest rates amid modest fiscal progress, the continuation of the state privatization program, and resumed IMF disbursements.<\/p>\n

But Deutsche Bank cautioned that achieving the 7% (\u00b12 pp) inflation target by 4Q 2026 <\/strong>remains at risk <\/strong>due to potential FX pressures from volatile capital flows, geopolitical instability, and emerging market outflows. Global food price shocks driven by climate change could also pose a risk, though local food price volatility \u2014 particularly in fruit and vegetables \u2014 could help pull inflation lower than currently expected. Deutsche Bank added that stronger growth momentum \u2014 estimated at 5.2% in 3Q FY 2025-26 \u2014 gives the CBE room to prioritize price stability and assess its stance on a meeting-by-meeting basis. <\/p>\n

Most analysts still expect rates to fall before the end of the year.<\/strong> Hafez sees a 100-150 bps cut by year-end, while Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston expects a 100 bps cut in December. Both Abu Basha and Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Head of Research Hany Genena see scope for a 100-200 bps cut in December. Metwally expects \u201cthe easing cycle to resume, but gradually, once the inflation path becomes clearer and the impact of the upcoming energy price adjustments is fully absorbed.\u201d Deutsche Bank, however, said there is an increasing chance that the CBE could keep rates on hold again in December if inflationary pressures persist, particularly from ongoing fiscal consolidation measures.<\/p>\n

The easing cycle is expected to pick up again in 2026<\/strong>, with CI Capital and Deutsche Bank both forecasting 600 bps of rate cuts during 2026. Swanston forecasts a steeper cumulative reduction of 800 bps next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The committee said the decision reflects its assessment of the latest inflation developments and outlook since its last meeting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":676016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-676015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5ff57bbc-dd56-45de-8d77-d7743a489d58","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged following October uptick in inflation","related_issue":[676010],"teaser":"The committee said the decision reflects its assessment of the latest inflation developments and outlook since its last meeting","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.71a156fa-3897-4b82-9146-9e20ce8fbfd9.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE leaves interest rates unchanged following October uptick in inflation - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/23\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-following-october-uptick-in-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE leaves interest rates unchanged following October uptick in inflation\" \/>\n<meta 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The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571553,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":676015,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates unchanged in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE decides to keep a bullet in its chamber, leaving rates on hold at MPC meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month when it met on Thursday, the central bank said in a statement(pdf). The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549623,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/25\/cbe-kind-of-bucks-the-global-tightening-trend-by-leaving-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":676015,"position":4},"title":"CBE (kind of) bucks the global tightening trend by leaving rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE reaches for another tool in the toolbox: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, a move that went against market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 11.25%, the lending rate at 12.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/06\/cbe-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-first-meeting-of-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":676015,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates unchanged in first meeting of 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the tenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The CBE left the overnight deposit rate at 8.25% and the lending rate at 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are still at 8.75%, it said in a statement (pdf)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/676015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=676015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/676015\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/676010"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/676016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=676015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=676015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=676015"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=676015"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=676015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}