{"id":675717,"date":"2025-11-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/18\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-cbe-meeting\/"},"modified":"2025-11-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T00:00:00","slug":"analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-cbe-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/18\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-cbe-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of CBE meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Will the <\/strong><strong>CBE cut rates again on Thursday?<\/strong> Analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM are divided about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four out of the 11 analysts we surveyed expect a 50-100 bps rate cut, while five see policymakers leaving rates unchanged, and the remaining two undecided, saying their decision depends on how inflation and policy priorities evolve.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER-<\/strong> The CBE cut interest rates <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/da4c3c78-eb78-465c-82e3-ac8b105a4da5\/central-bank-of-egypt-resumes-rate-cuts-with-100-bps-move\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">100 bps<\/a> in its sixth meeting of the year in October, extending the easing cycle it resumed in April after a brief pause in July.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Where rates stand now:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate is currently at 21.00%, the overnight lending rate at 22.00%, and the main operation and discount rates at 21.50%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation raises the odds of a hold:<\/strong> Last month\u2019s inflation reading limited the central bank\u2019s room to continue cutting rates, several analysts told EnterpriseAM. Annual urban inflation rose 0.8 percentage points <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/24b51d16-6751-42b2-a4f5-242a7e004475\/inflation-in-egypt-accelerates-for-first-time-in-four-months\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">in October<\/a> to 12.5%, driven by higher fuel, food, and beverage prices. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>In context:<\/strong> Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena expects the CBE to keep rates unchanged this week in light of accelerating inflation. EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha echoed this sentiment in comments to EnterpriseAM, noting that higher rents following changes to the Old Rent Law and the still-unclear impact of last month\u2019s fuel price hike all point toward the central bank keeping rates unchanged for now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But several analysts still see room for a cut:<\/strong> \u201cOur base case for the November meeting is a 100 bps cut,\u201d said economist and Kent Business School Advisor Ali Metwally. EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal also penciled in a 50-100 bps cut this week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>There\u2019s more to it:<\/strong> \u201cPolicymakers still have room to continue the easing cycle,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. The firm expects a 100 bps cut this week. The macro backdrop remains supportive of easing thanks to improving inflation dynamics, FX stability, and stronger foreign inflows amid renewed appetite for T-bills, Metwally said. Continued cuts would balance growth momentum with inflation control and help steer inflation toward the 7% (\u00b12%) target by the end of 2026, Abdel Aal added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Other motivations for further easing include the global trend toward looser monetary <\/strong><strong>policy <\/strong>\u2014 including by the US Federal Reserve \u2014 which gives Egypt more room to cut without undermining foreign investment, Abdel Aal added. Lower rates would also ease the cost of borrowing, supporting investment and reducing pressure on the state budget, he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The CBE should keep rates unchanged, but will it? <\/strong>Banking expert and former chairman of Industrial Development Bank Maged Fahmy told EnterpriseAM that \u201ctechnically, the central bank should at least keep rates on hold, because inflation is high and expected to rise further.\u201d He added that headline inflation \u201ccould increase even more in the coming period,\u201d which would normally argue against further monetary easing. Still, Fahmy said the central bank may choose to continue cutting for broader policy reasons. The US Federal Reserve \u201ccut rates even though inflation had not fallen, saying clearly it was targeting the labor market,\u201d he noted, adding that Egypt could follow a similar approach: \u201cthe government is targeting the budget deficit, so it is possible they continue lowering rates.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Some see cuts, but not now: <\/strong>Thndr Securities\u2019 Esraa Ahmed told us that the \u201ccurrent inflation levels allow room for a 100 bps cut before year-end but with rising pressures, we think the CBE could prefer to hold rates at its next meeting.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cAlthough the central bank may keep rates unchanged in the November meeting, we <\/strong><strong>believe there is room for a 100 bps cut <\/strong>to stimulate the economy and the private sector,\u201d HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir told us. She attributed this to the strength of Egypt\u2019s external position, including the rise in net foreign reserves to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/95c62e59-0a42-4f0c-b766-9c4cbbd3a782\/egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-foreign-reserves-increase-to-usd-50.1-bn-in-october\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">record USD 50.1 bn<\/a> in October, the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e623b69e-a212-4b3e-98c5-65b013789ab6\/egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-net-foreign-assets-post-a-strong-recovery-in-september,-hitting-usd-20.8-bn\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">improvement<\/a> in banks\u2019 net foreign assets, the jump in remittances <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/785a7bd4-ebf3-4319-8c23-baa2b84ced04\/remittances-recorded-usd-3.5-bn-in-august\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">in August<\/a>, the drop in Egypt\u2019s one-year CDS spreads, and the rebound in Suez Canal revenues in November \u2014 all factors that helped the EGP strengthen nearly 8% against the USD so far this year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Some are on the fence:<\/strong> Former Banque Misr Vice Chairman Sahar Al Damati expects the CBE to either hold rates or slash them by 100 bps. She told EnterpriseAM that the first scenario \u2014 a hold \u2014 reflects the impact of recent fuel price hikes on inflation. However, if the CBE opts to cut, she said it would be driven by broader economic stability, improved FX conditions following Egypt\u2019s c. USD 30 bn agreement with Qatar to develop <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/9d35c52c-bfb7-45b7-84a2-df50aafc5653\/qatar-to-invest-usd-29.7-bn-in-north-coast-project\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Alam El Roum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">AFTER THIS WEEK\u2019S MEETING-<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Most analysts expect rate cuts to continue through the final quarter of the year.<\/strong> Beltone Holding\u2019s Head of Research Ahmed Hafez sees a 100-150 bps cut over the full quarter. \u201cWe are not certain about timing \u2014 it could be November or December,\u201d he said. December\u2019s meeting is expected to bring another 100 bps cut, followed by a cumulative 800 bps in cuts in 2026, according to Swanston. Genena sees room for a 100-200 bps cut in December, while Metwally expects an additional 50-100 bps cut if inflation remains within its current range.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation outlook:<\/strong> Inflation is expected to continue accelerating through year-end. Capital Economics projects average inflation of 13% in 4Q. Hafez expects headline inflation to rise to 14% in November and December due to the lingering impact of fuel price hikes and a possible further VAT increase on cigarettes. Abu Basha sees inflation rising to 14.1%, then 14.3% by year-end, adding that any potential changes to rental rules could push inflation higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four out of the 11 analysts we surveyed expect a 50-100 bps rate cut,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":675718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-675717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0541f80e-2c50-4d2a-9103-51da24ff6557","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/178.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of CBE meeting","related_issue":[675709],"teaser":"Four out of the 11 analysts we surveyed expect a 50-100 bps rate cut,","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.b04e8b43-dc79-4803-9bf8-860a87e1d589.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. 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Six out of 12 economists we polled last week expect the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 50-100 bps and five forecast\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/199.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586546,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/14\/cbe-to-keep-rates-unchanged-on-slower-april-inflation-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":675717,"position":2},"title":"CBE to keep rates unchanged on slower April inflation -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Seven of nine analysts expect rates to be held steady","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/704.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":675717,"position":3},"title":"You called it: CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its policy meeting on Thursday, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The decision comes amid growing global concern about a new, faster\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/434.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544742,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/20\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-this-week-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":675717,"position":4},"title":"CBE to raise interest rates this week -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt will likely raise interest rates for the first time in 16 months when it meets this Thursday, a move that the majority of analysts and economists we polled see as significant to curb inflation that has been pushed to a three-year high by the war\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/243.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571394,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":675717,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. 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