{"id":674815,"date":"2025-11-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/04\/diving-into-the-cbes-latest-monetary-policy-report\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T00:00:00","slug":"diving-into-the-cbes-latest-monetary-policy-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/04\/diving-into-the-cbes-latest-monetary-policy-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Diving into the CBE\u2019s latest Monetary Policy Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt is out with its 3Q <\/strong>Monetary Policy Report (pdf)<\/a><\/strong>, which highlights main trends in the country's economic trajectory and offers insights and predictions regarding the country\u2019s economic outlook. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

SETTING THE SCENE- <\/strong>The CBE cut rate by 100 bps last month<\/a> in its sixth meeting of the year, continuing the easing cycle it resumed in August<\/a> after a brief pause in July. The decision came as a result of the CBE\u2019s updated outlook on inflation on the back of decelerating annual headline and core inflation. <\/p>\n

Annual headline inflation reached an average of 12.5% in 3Q 2025<\/strong>, down from 15.2%<\/a> in 2Q 2025, \u201cdriven mainly by a strong decline in food inflation that reverted to its pre-2022 levels.\u201d Meanwhile, annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 fell to an average 11.2% during the quarter, down from 11.6% in 2Q 2025.<\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>Annual headline urban inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month in September<\/a> to 11.7%, down by 0.3 percentage points from August. The dip marked the lowest annual figure since March 2022.<\/p>\n

Inflation outlook:<\/strong> The CBE revised its inflation forecast downwards \u201cgiven the lower-than-expected print in 3Q 2025.\u201d The revised downward its baseline annual headline inflation forecasts from its 2Q 2025 report, now seeing inflation averaging 14% in 2025, and 10.5% in 2026. The figures are well below the 28.3% inflation average of 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe disinflation path remains constrained<\/strong> by: the impact of planned fiscal consolidation measures across the forecast horizon such as energy , tobacco, and electricity, and the expected persistence of annual non-food inflation,\u201d the report read. Re-escalating geopolitical tensions could also push inflation high. Taking these scenarios into account, annual headline inflation is expected to average 14.5% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.<\/p>\n

Medium-term projections remain unchanged: <\/strong>The CBE still sees GDP growth reaching an average of 4.8% this fiscal year and 5.1% in FY 2026-2027. <\/p>\n

Our external position remained strong <\/strong>supported by a narrowed current account deficit. Egypt\u2019s current account deficit stood at<\/a> USD 15.4 bn in FY 2024-2025, down 25.9% y-o-y. The improvement is supported by \u201ca surge in workers\u2019 remittances, alongside higher services revenue, in particular from tourism and transportation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Money supply dynamics:<\/strong> M2 growth continued to slow during 3Q 2025, averaging 22.6% compared to an average of 24.2% recorded in 2Q 2025. The real growth of local currency loans to the private sector continued to grow for the eighth consecutive quarter, averaging 14.5% in 3Q 2025 compared to 12.6% in 2Q. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CBE sees annual headline inflation average 10.5% in 2026 amid sustained recovery<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":674816,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-674815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"058df35f-414e-475e-ab16-4aea3d6343dc","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/178.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Diving into the CBE\u2019s latest Monetary Policy Report","related_issue":[674799],"teaser":"CBE sees annual headline inflation average 10.5% in 2026 amid sustained recovery","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.e1f38217-2640-4e31-a960-c68c786f09c7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nDiving into the CBE\u2019s latest Monetary Policy Report - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/04\/diving-into-the-cbes-latest-monetary-policy-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diving into the CBE\u2019s latest Monetary Policy Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CBE sees annual headline inflation average 10.5% in 2026 amid sustained recovery\" \/>\n<meta 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2177.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":642633,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/08\/20\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":674815,"position":2},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 August 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates on Thursday. The overnight deposit rate was held steady at 18.75% while the overnight lending rate was kept the same at 19.75%. Annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July on account of numerous subsidy cuts and a slight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":657902,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-unchanged-for-sixth-time-in-a-row\/","url_meta":{"origin":674815,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates unchanged for sixth time in a row","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 December 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The decision \u201cremains appropriate to maintain a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is achieved\u201d","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":653583,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/20\/central-bank-holds-interest-rates-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":674815,"position":4},"title":"Central bank holds interest rates in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"All 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM forecasted the decision to keep rates on hold","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621735,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/18\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":674815,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank of Egypt (CBE) kept key interest rates on hold on Thursday, citing higher-than-expected headline inflation rates in September and October. 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