{"id":674544,"date":"2025-10-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/30\/the-egp-remains-an-appealing-carry-trade\/"},"modified":"2025-10-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T00:00:00","slug":"the-egp-remains-an-appealing-carry-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/30\/the-egp-remains-an-appealing-carry-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"The EGP remains an appealing carry trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

EGP reclaiming its carry trade darling title?<\/strong> The EGP continues to be an appealing carry trade, with USD softness, rising remittance and tourism revenues, and nominal yields all coming together to build a case for the currency, UBS said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. Emerging market currencies have been on the rise in the first half of the year, yielding higher total returns despite a slight stagnation in July, according to the report.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The EGP offers an attractive nominal yield of 19% annualized over three months<\/strong>, which will maintain its appeal even as the Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates<\/a> and as the US Federal Reserve also pushes forward with its monetary easing, the report highlights. A stable exchange rate makes the currency more appealing as the EGP\u2019s real effective exchange rate will unlikely need adjustments as it remains near its post-devaluation lows, UBS says. \u201cLow volatility in an exchange rate is beneficial for carry trades, as expected risk-adjusted returns look more favorable,\u201d according to the report. <\/p>\n

ALSO-<\/strong> Geopolitical tensions have relatively eased since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas earlier this month, the report notes. Meanwhile, the trajectory for Suez Canal revenues remains unclear, after falling sharply in FY 2024-2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> The IMF has recently upgraded<\/a> its forecast for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth to 4.5% in FY 2025-2026, with Egypt\u2019s external position holding up strongly against the USD due to increased inflows from remittances and tourism. Inflation is also forecast to slow down to 11.7% next year.<\/p>\n

Risks still abound: <\/strong>Egypt continues to face external and fiscal deficits as elevated borrowing costs remain a challenge, along with a resource strain caused by pressures on agricultural produce and energy, the report says. In addition, our proximity to geopolitical conflict areas still remains a monitored threat. UBS also notes that \u201cchallenges to the positive global market risk sentiment in recent months \u2014 for example due to trade tensions or credit quality worries, or an end to the overall carry supportive backdrop \u2026 could lead investors to pull funds from Egypt and could negatively impact the EGP.\u201d<\/p>\n

Appetite<\/strong> for EM currencies and equities is expected to continue <\/strong>growing over the next<\/a><\/strong>12 months<\/a><\/strong>, Goldman Sachs said in a recent report, while the IMF expects<\/a> global economic growth rates to reach 3.2% in 2025, global trade outperforming expectations, and another rate cut<\/a> from the US Federal Reserve, UBS said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The EGP offers an attractive nominal yield of 19% annualized over three months<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":674545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12144],"tags":[2082,1419,6637,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-674544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-egp-watch","tag-carry-trade","tag-egp","tag-egp-watch","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3fa91a36-b11d-4f0c-8c5d-c4859fb3b969","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/644.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The EGP remains an appealing carry trade","related_issue":[674531],"teaser":"The EGP offers an attractive nominal yield of 19% annualized over three months","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.8554bd0c-cfa9-4059-b88d-776b97b588fe.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe EGP remains an appealing carry trade - 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While Ukraine\u2019s sovereign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/337.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579118,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/25\/its-sayonara-to-high-yield-cds-at-the-end-of-the-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":674544,"position":1},"title":"It\u2019s sayonara to high-yield CDs at the end of the month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt are pulling their one-year, 25% certificates of deposit after the end of January, according to emailed statements from the two banks. The high-yield savings products were introduced to the market on 4 January ahead of the EGP devaluation to help curb inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/444.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584662,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/03\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-3-april-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":674544,"position":2},"title":"What the markets are doing on 3 April, 2023","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MARKET NEWS-Ezz Steel\u2019s net income rose 23.2% y-o-y to EGP 6.6 bn in 2022, according to an EGXdisclosure(pdf). The company\u2019s revenues, meanwhile, rose 23.8% y-o-y to EGP 84.0 bn.OFH to carry out capital reduction: Orascom Financial Holding\u2019s (OFH) board of directors has agreed to reduce the company\u2019s share capital to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GO WITH THE FLOW"","block_context":{"text":"GO WITH THE FLOW","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/go-with-the-flow\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573292,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/28\/the-tides-are-turning-for-foreign-portfolio-investment-in-egypt-as-investors-return-to-favorite-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":674544,"position":3},"title":"The tides are turning for foreign portfolio investment in Egypt as investors return to \u201cfavorite\u201d carry trade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The tides are turning for foreign portfolio investment in Egypt as investors return to \u201cfavorite\u201d carry trade: Foreign holdings of Egyptian sovereign debt rose to USD 10.6 bn by the end of June, and the first two weeks of July saw another USD 3 bn of inflows to local debt,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573916,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/24\/pressure-on-the-egp-is-easing-now-that-the-worst-of-the-balance-of-payments-crunch-is-over-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":674544,"position":4},"title":"Pressure on the EGP is easing now that the worst of the balance of payments crunch is over \u2013Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Pressure on the EGP is easing now that the worst of the balance of payments crunch is over, Capital Economics says in a new report. 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It showed resilience in the face of the economic fallout from covid-19, and rebounded\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise explains"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise explains","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/enterprise-explains\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/674544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=674544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/674544\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/674531"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/674545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=674544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=674544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=674544"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=674544"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=674544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}