{"id":674509,"date":"2025-10-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/29\/experts-predict-gold-mini-bust-after-historic-rally\/"},"modified":"2025-10-29T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T00:00:00","slug":"experts-predict-gold-mini-bust-after-historic-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/29\/experts-predict-gold-mini-bust-after-historic-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts predict gold mini-bust after historic rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

? The beginning of the end for the gold rush?<\/strong> After a 52% surge that saw gold reach an all-time high of USD 4.4k per ounce, the precious metal is experiencing a sharp correction that some analysts believe marks the beginning of a more significant downturn. As of publication, gold is trading at just over USD 4k per ounce, down 8% from its peak last week. The sell-off has been dramatic, with one session last week seeing gold tumble more than 5% in what marked the steepest percentage decline since April 2013<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A \u201cmini-bust\u201d on the horizon?<\/strong> John Higgins, the chief markets economist at Capital Economics, was cited<\/a> as saying that the recent pullback is the start of a downward trend that could erase a significant portion of this year\u2019s gains, predicting that the price of gold will fall to USD 3.5k per ounce by the end of 2026 \u2014 a decline of more about 13 % from current levels.<\/p>\n

The macroeconomic firm\u2019s bearish outlook is the result of four main concerns: <\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- The rally has run too far. <\/strong>First, while gold has pulled back from its peak, it remains up 50% YTD, and even a drop to USD 3.5k would still represent a 30% gain since the beginning of 2025. This suggests that the metal may have gotten ahead of itself.<\/p>\n

#2- Central bank appetite may wane. <\/strong>Central bank buying has been a major driver of gold\u2019s rally in recent years, with the share of gold in total reserves surpassing 20%. However, Capital Economics doesn\u2019t expect reserves to continue rising to the levels seen during the high-inflation of the 1980s.<\/p>\n

#3- Cooling demand from China. <\/strong>China\u2019s roaring stock market could \u201creduce the allure\u201d of gold among investors in the country, with asset managers potentially hesitant to buy more gold if it continues to underperform.<\/p>\n

#4- The \u201cdebasement trade\u201d may be overblown.<\/strong> Higgins doubts that concerns about currency debasement are driving as much gold demand as some believe. The USD has remained stable against other currencies in recent months, while the 10-year US Treasury has rallied, suggesting investors haven\u2019t lost confidence in USD-denominated assets. Instead, Higgins suggests the surge from early August to mid-October was \u201clargely driven by FOMO.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s driving the current sell-off?<\/strong> Chinese and US officials hashed out a framework for a trade agreement over the weekend that would pause steeper US tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare-earths, with US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to meet. This progress in trade talks is reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at Oanda, explained<\/a>, \u201cThe fuel for this short-term correction in gold is a readjustment of safe-haven instrument towards more response instrument like global equities due to trade optimism.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts also say the sell-off followed weeks of heavy buying that pushed gold to <\/strong>overheated levels, prompting investors to lock in <\/strong>gains<\/strong>.<\/strong> The USD has strengthened against rival currencies, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. The end of the Diwali festival in India, the world\u2019s second-largest gold consumer, has reduced physical demand.<\/p>\n

But the bulls aren\u2019t giving up yet:<\/strong> Despite the bearish short-term outlook from some quarters, not all analysts are turning their backs on gold. Wong noted that while the metal faces near-term downside pressure from position adjustments by short-term traders, \u201cthe fundamentals are still bullish for gold.\u201d ING<\/a> and ANZ<\/a> analysts echoed this sentiment, suggesting<\/a> that \u201cthe recent declines may provide [a window] for central banks to ramp up purchases,\u201d with ANZ predicting<\/a> that the bullion will reach USD 4.6k per ounce by June 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some analysts think that the recent pullback is the start of a downward trend that could erase a significant portion of this year\u2019s gains<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":674510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7215],"tags":[633,638,12344,7093,1473,12343],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-674509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-for-your-commute","tag-enterprisepm","tag-for-your-commute","tag-futures-trading","tag-gold","tag-investment-banking","tag-trading","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0dfbb261-8df7-4411-84fb-4d028c30f6c1","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/10\/1646.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Experts predict gold mini-bust after historic rally","related_issue":[674504],"teaser":"Some analysts think that the recent pullback is the start of a downward trend that could erase a significant portion of this year\u2019s gains","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.b7697698-e8b8-43ad-a6b1-743d284d9732.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nExperts predict gold mini-bust after historic rally - 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