{"id":674298,"date":"2025-10-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/27\/cooling-us-inflation-makes-the-case-for-fed-rate-cuts\/"},"modified":"2025-10-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T00:00:00","slug":"cooling-us-inflation-makes-the-case-for-fed-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/27\/cooling-us-inflation-makes-the-case-for-fed-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Cooling US inflation makes the case for Fed rate cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Softer US inflation boosts case for Fed rate cuts:<\/strong> The US\u2019 core consumer price index (CPI)<\/a>(pdf)<\/a> rose just 0.2% m-o-m and 3.0% y-o-y in September, its slowest pace in three months and 0.1 percentage points below Wall Street\u2019s estimates on both measures, Bloomberg<\/a> reported on Friday. The report is \u201ctepid enough to seal the deal for a 25-bp rate cut later this month, and another one in December,\u201d economists Anna Wong and Chris G. Collins noted.<\/p>\n

Headline inflation showed a similar picture<\/strong>, increasing 0.3% m-o-m and 3% y-o-y, also coming in just shy of expectations by 0.1 percentage points.<\/p>\n

The moderation in prices was primarily driven by softer services and shelter costs<\/strong>. Housing costs saw their smallest increase since early 2021, with owners\u2019 equivalent rent \u2014 a component that accounts for roughly a quarter of the CPI \u2014 rising just 0.1%. Goods inflation also eased amid a decline in used car prices. Still, services prices (excluding housing and energy) \u2014 a measure the Fed watches closely \u2014 remained firm, signaling sticky underlying pressures.<\/p>\n

Uneven impact: <\/strong>The Fed\u2019s Beige Book noted rising input costs across industries, though the effect is varied. Companies like Procter & Gamble reported minimal impact, while others \u2014 including O\u2019Reilly Automotive \u2014 responded by raising prices. Tariff-exposed categories such as apparel and furnishings saw sharper gains, with apparel prices climbing at their fastest pace in a year.<\/p>\n

Growing tariff concerns: <\/strong>While the impact of tariffs has been milder than expected, economists warn of renewed price pressures as President Trump\u2019s latest duties on household goods take effect. Firms have so far absorbed most cost increases but are likely to pass them on to consumers soon as margins tighten, Pantheon Macroeconomics\u2019 Oliver Allen told Bloomberg. \u201cWe anticipate a cumulative shock from tariffs totaling 0.8 percentage points by early 2026,\u201d EY-Parthenon\u2019s chief economist Gregory Daco told Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

AND- US government shutdown delayed the report and threatens future data. <\/strong>While economists are confident in the September data, which was collected before the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not collected new data since, and a White House-affiliated account stated there will \u201clikely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history.\u201d<\/p>\n

ALSO FROM PLANET FINANCE- <\/strong>Gold prices shed USD 138.8 per ounce last week<\/strong>, closing on Friday at USD 4.1k, Bloomberg<\/a> reported on Saturday. The biggest weekly dip since 2013 \u2014 and one of the largest ever in USD terms \u2014 followed a period of record highs driven by frantic retail buying. The outlook is still bullish, as analysts and investors see the decline as a \u201chealthy correction\u201d and a \u201cbuy the dip\u201d window for central banks and physical buyers.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s Nikkei is leading Asian markets\u2019 gains this morning<\/strong>, up 2.1% in early trading after breaking the 50k level for the first time, ahead of Trump\u2019s meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi this week. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are in the green ahead of an anticipated Fed rate cut and a week of Big Tech earnings.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

E<\/strong>GX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

38,102<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +28.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.50<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,593<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,202<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,066<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +17.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,792<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +15.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,646<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +18.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,675<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +15.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 66.08<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,100<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 115,249<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.2% (YTD: +23.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

950.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +22.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +9.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-5.4% (YTD: -5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 1.1% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (34.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 28.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Juhayna (+7.4%), Emaar Misr (+6.9%), and E-finance (+6.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Mopco (-0.9%), Ibnsina Pharma (-0.8%), and Egypt Aluminum (-0.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation eases on housing, but tariff pressures and government shutdown cloud the 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