{"id":673366,"date":"2025-10-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/12\/inflation-cools-for-fourth-straight-month-in-september-to-11-7\/"},"modified":"2025-10-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-cools-for-fourth-straight-month-in-september-to-11-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/12\/inflation-cools-for-fourth-straight-month-in-september-to-11-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation cools for fourth straight month in September to 11.7%"},"content":{"rendered":"

A<\/strong>nnual headline<\/strong> urban inflation fell by <\/strong>0.3 percentage points<\/strong> in September<\/strong> to end the month at 11.7%, supported by a drop in food and beverage price inflation, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas seen by EnterpriseAM. The fall marks the fourth consecutive month of easing price inflation and the lowest annual figure since March 2022.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

A fall\u2019s a fall, but analysts had been expecting inflation to drop much further<\/strong>, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. \u201cSeptember\u2019s inflation came higher than our estimate of 10.9% y-o-y and 1.1% m-o-m,\u201d HC Securities' Heba Mounir similarly told us. The reading is also up 0.7 percentage points from a Reuters<\/a>poll<\/a> of 15 analysts that had a median projection of 11.0% y-o-y. <\/p>\n

Driving the decline were easing food and beverages prices<\/strong> \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 with food prices increasing 1.4% y-o-y during the month, down from 2.1% the previous month. This was backed by a 0.6% y-o-y dip in meat prices and a 20.9% y-o-y fall in vegetable prices. September\u2019s reading was also supported by a favorable base effect and the 1.5% m-o-m EGP appreciation against the USD, Mounir added.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s a different story on a monthly basis, with urban inflation accelerating for the <\/strong>second straight month. <\/strong>Prices increased m-o-m by 1.8%, fueled by an uptick in food and beverage price inflation, triggered mainly by a 12.3% m-o-m increase in vegetable prices, which Mounir attributed to the high summer temperatures.<\/p>\n

What about core inflation?<\/strong> Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 inched up 0.6 percentage points from August to 11.3% y-o-y, according to data<\/a> from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation came in at 1.5%, compared to 0.1% a month earlier.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s disinflation streak is expected to soon come to a halt \u2014 at least for a <\/strong>while.<\/strong> Upcoming inflation data for October, set to be released next month, is expected to show an increase in inflationary pressures stemming from an expected fuel price hike to fully liberalize pricing and recover production costs. <\/p>\n

The move could push the annual rate up to 14% and the monthly rate to 3.5%<\/strong>, Genena told us. However, the jump is no reason to be concerned, cautions Genena, who points to the large gap between interest rates and inflation to absorb future shocks. Others like EG Bank Board Member Mohamed Abdel Aal are more optimistic, seeing headline inflation stabilizing at around 12% y-o-y on average and core inflation at 10% y-o-y on average. Abdel Aal points to an expected cushioning of fuel price hikes by a dip in the country's import bill as the EGP strengthens against the USD.<\/p>\n

Despite inflation easing less than expected, most analysts still seem to be forecasting <\/strong>another <\/strong>100 bps cut by year-end<\/strong>, including Thndr Securities Brokerage\u2019s Esraa Ahmed, who sees<\/a> the central bank as having \u201cdecent room\u201d to make a move. Genena likewise sees a 100 bps cut by the end of the year, following a likely hold in November to assess the impact of fuel price hikes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts had been expecting a much greater fall in inflation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":673367,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-673366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c40d6d15-1ca1-41df-9780-f9a5728ab73a","order":"7","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/833.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation cools for fourth straight month in September to 11.7%","related_issue":[673356],"teaser":"Analysts had been expecting a much greater fall in inflation","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.7ed1e36e-cf79-4541-95e1-7d0335631a4d.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation cools for fourth straight month in September to 11.7% - 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On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542436,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":673366,"position":1},"title":"Inflation inches down in November, defying expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 December 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564507,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":673366,"position":2},"title":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. 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Figures released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas showed annual urban inflation jumped to 21.3% in December, up from 18.7% the month before, driven by surging food\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":673366,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":613338,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/14\/inflation-eases-for-a-third-consecutive-month-to-seven-month-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":673366,"position":5},"title":"Inflation eases for a third consecutive month to seven-month low","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 January 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation slowed to 33.7% in December driven by falling core inflation","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/742.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/673366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=673366"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/673366\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/673356"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/673367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=673366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=673366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=673366"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=673366"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=673366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}