{"id":673266,"date":"2025-10-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/08\/emerging-market-rally-hits-15-year-high-as-weaker-usd-fuels-global-shift\/"},"modified":"2025-10-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T00:00:00","slug":"emerging-market-rally-hits-15-year-high-as-weaker-usd-fuels-global-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/08\/emerging-market-rally-hits-15-year-high-as-weaker-usd-fuels-global-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging market rally hits 15-year high as weaker USD fuels global shift"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emerging market assets are surging at their fastest pace since 2009 as investors flock to <\/strong>developing economies<\/strong>, drawn by a weaker USD, high real yields, and attractive valuations, the Financial Times<\/a> reported yesterday.<\/p>\n

An MSCI benchmark of emerging-market equities climbed 28% YTD<\/strong> \u2014 its biggest gain over the period in over 15 years \u2014 while a JPMorgan index tracking local-currency government bonds is up 16%. Both indices are rebounding from what analysts have called a \u201clost decade\u201d of underperformance against US markets. Meanwhile, MSCI\u2019s developed-market stocks index is up less than 17% this year, the salmon-colored paper said.<\/p>\n

The turnaround follows years of stagnation: <\/strong>Emerging market equities rose just 9% in total between 2010 and 2024, trailing one of the strongest US bull runs in history. \u201cAfter 15 years of very mediocre performance, the stars are finally aligning and the most important variable there is the USD,\u201d Ian Simmons, senior portfolio manager at Fiera Capital, told the FT, citing the USD\u2019s slide under President Trump\u2019s administration and the Federal Reserve\u2019s shift toward rate cuts. <\/p>\n

A softer USD has eased financial pressures on developing economies by lowering the <\/strong>costs of servicing USD-denominated debt<\/strong>, while falling US yields have spurred renewed appetite for local-currency bonds offering high inflation-adjusted returns. Roughly half of this year\u2019s gains in JPMorgan\u2019s EM bond index stem from FX moves, according to Damien Buchet, chief investment officer of Principal Finisterre.<\/p>\n

The rally has been strongest in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Hungary, and South Africa, <\/strong>where high real rates have kept carry trades appealing<\/strong>, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. \u201cYou can have these multi-year virtuous circles within emerging markets where capital inflows drive improving fundamentals, which will bring more capital inflows,\u201d said Kenneth Orchard, head of international fixed income at T. Rowe Price. Meanwhile, countries with fragile finances \u2014 think Turkey -- continue to maintain double-digit policy rates to draw capital.<\/p>\n

Governments are tapping into investor demand: <\/strong>Local-currency bond issuance across 17 major emerging markets outside China has hit a record USD 286 bn YTD, S&P Global Ratings\u2019 head of emerging markets credit research Zahabia Gupta told the FT.<\/p>\n

The rally has also spilled into equities tied to the global AI boom<\/strong>, with South Korea\u2019s Kospi and Taiwan\u2019s Taiex both reaching record highs as investors pile into chipmakers and hardware suppliers for data centers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alone now represents about 11% of the MSCI EM Index \u2014 more than the combined weighting of several countrie, according to the FT.<\/p>\n

Despite the surge, EM assets remain cheap.<\/strong> The MSCI EM Index trades at about 14x forward earnings, compared with 23x for the S&P 500, according to William Blair portfolio manager Vivian Lin Thurston. That valuation gap has fueled much of this year\u2019s \u201cre-rating\u201d in emerging markets, as investors calibrate expectations.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning<\/strong>, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, Japan\u2019s Nikkei almost unchanged, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng inching down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures<\/strong> are slightly inching up, after the S&P ended a 7-day streak of gains.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37,097<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.01% (YTD: +24.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.53<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.63<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,583<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,082<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,940<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +15.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,715<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +14.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,484<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +16.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,614<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +14.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 65.74<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,008<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 121,943<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.5% (YTD: +30.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

931.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +19.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +7.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.3% (YTD: -3.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.01% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.7 bn (4.1% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 24.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emaar Misr (+4.5%), Egypt Aluminum (+3.3%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+1.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Telecom Egypt (-2.4%), Orascom Construction (-1.3%), and Fawry (-1.2%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An MSCI benchmark of emerging-market equities climbed 28% YTD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":673267,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[115,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-673266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a485b7ce-1ef9-4b4c-be83-d1c6e6516e2a","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/1103.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Emerging market rally hits 15-year high as weaker USD fuels global shift","related_issue":[673244],"teaser":"An MSCI benchmark of emerging-market equities climbed 28% YTD","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.420878e7-0b86-48a2-995c-c21e64054af7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEmerging market rally hits 15-year high as weaker USD fuels global shift - 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