{"id":673193,"date":"2025-10-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/07\/fed-to-lead-rate-cutting-wave-as-global-monetary-policy-diverges\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T00:00:00","slug":"fed-to-lead-rate-cutting-wave-as-global-monetary-policy-diverges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/07\/fed-to-lead-rate-cutting-wave-as-global-monetary-policy-diverges\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed to lead rate-cutting wave as global monetary policy diverges"},"content":{"rendered":"

Central banks to extend rate-cutting cycle through year-end: <\/strong>The Federal Reserve and several major central banks are expected to continue lowering interest rates for the remainder of 2025, according to Bloomberg Economics<\/a>. Some 15 banks are projected to cut borrowing costs, while most of Western Europe pauses to gauge inflation trends. Only the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates.<\/p>\n

The drivers: <\/strong>Common factors influencing these decisions include persistent inflation concerns, the economic impact of US trade tariffs under President Trump, and domestic political pressures. While the overall direction is toward lower borrowing costs, the pace is tempered by economic resilience and lingering price pressures, Bloomberg\u2019s analysts say.<\/p>\n

#1- Fed to deliver two more cuts amid political pressure: <\/strong>The US Federal Reserve is forecast to reduce rates twice more this year after its September cut<\/a>, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75% by year-end from its current 4.25%. Markets expect quarter-point cuts at each of the two remaining 2025 meetings, as officials aim to balance labor market support with inflation risks tied to Trump\u2019s tariff. \u201cThe Federal Open Market Committee is in a bind \u2014 cut too fast and tariffs could fuel inflation; move too slowly and the labor market weakens,\u201d Bloomberg Economics\u2019 Estelle Ou said. <\/p>\n

#2- ECB, BOE hold steady as inflation lingers: <\/strong>The European Central Bank is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2% through next year, with policymakers signaling comfort with current levels as inflation steadies near target. The Bank of England is also expected to hold its 4% rate amid renewed inflation concerns, with Governor Andrew Bailey warning of caution ahead of November\u2019s budget. Bloomberg Economics\u2019 Dan Hanson sees the BOE\u2019s terminal rate at 3.5%, noting cuts may resume only after clearer disinflation signs emerge.<\/p>\n

#3- Japan set to tighten policy amid rising prices: <\/strong>The Bank of Japan could raise its benchmark rate to 0.75% this year from 0.5%, as inflation stays near 3%. Governor Kazuo Ueda\u2019s hawkish tone and dissent within the board have strengthened expectations for a hike, possibly in October. \u201cEven dovish board members now see a case for tightening \u2014 the BOJ probably thinks it\u2019s safe to move,\u201d said Bloomberg Economics\u2019 Taro Kimura.<\/p>\n

#4- Asia\u2019s outlook is mixed: <\/strong>The People\u2019s Bank of China is expected to deliver limited 4Q easing, trimming its 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% from 1.4% as it balances deflation risks with stock market stability. The Reserve Bank of India could cut rates twice before February, lowering its repo rate to 5.25% from 5.5% after a sharp downward revision to inflation forecasts. The Bank of Korea is also leaning toward further cuts, potentially reducing its policy rate to 2.25% from 2.5% as soon as this month or the next to support domestic demand.<\/p>\n

#5- Canada, Australia to continue gradual easing: <\/strong>The Bank of Canada \u2014 which lowered its key rate to 2.5% in September \u2014 is expected to cut once more in December to 2.25% before pausing in 2026 as growth weakens under tariff pressures. The Reserve Bank of Australia is nearing the end of its easing cycle, with one final 25-basis-point cut expected in November to bring the cash rate to 3.35%, as policymakers assess inflation momentum, with Bloomberg projecting a gradual decline to 3.35% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed this morning<\/strong>, with both Japan\u2019s Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite up over 0.5%, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is inching down 0.7%. Wall Street futures are indicating a slightly lower opening after record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37,095<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +24.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.68<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 47.56<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 47.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,605<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: -3.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,063<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +6.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,908<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +14.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,740<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +14.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,479<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +16.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +15.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 65.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,992<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 124,786<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +33.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

929.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +19.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +7.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 5.1 bn (14.2% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 24.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Orascom Construction (+4.2%), Emaar Misr (+1.3%), and Fawry (+1.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Qalaa Holdings (-2.4%), Beltone Holding (-1.6%), and TMG Holding (-1.4%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Qalaa Holdings increased its authorized capital to EGP 50 bn<\/strong>, up from EGP 10 bn, and raised its issued and paid-in capital to EGP 21.1 bn from EGP 9.1 bn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg Economics forecasts 15 of 23 key monetary authorities will lower borrowing costs before year-end<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":673194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[10850,104,72,119,349,122,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-673193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-central-banks","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1b7790d4-a3a3-4b8e-ba22-97e76f39b321","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/10\/342.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fed 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