{"id":672878,"date":"2025-10-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/01\/the-coffee-industry-faces-the-perfect-storm\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T00:00:00","slug":"the-coffee-industry-faces-the-perfect-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/01\/the-coffee-industry-faces-the-perfect-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"The coffee industry faces the perfect storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u2615 As java lovers worldwide mark international coffee day, the global <\/strong>coffee industry confronts a confluence of challenges <\/strong>that could reshape bns of consumers\u2019 morning rituals. Rising temperatures, volatile weather patterns, US tariffs, and supply chain disruptions are converging to create what experts describe as one of the most turbulent periods in coffee\u2019s modern history.<\/p>\n

Coffee prices have jumped nearly 21% over the past 12 months<\/strong>, according to a food security report<\/a> by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CBS<\/a> reports that the retail price of half a kg of ground roast coffee reached a record USD 8.9 in the US, up from USD 7 just this January. The spike represents far more than a temporary market fluctuation \u2014 it\u2019s a symptom of deep structural changes facing coffee production worldwide. And the increases have been universal, affecting coffee from all origins. <\/p>\n

Between July 2024 and June 2025, the price of Arabica coffee rose by 91% on futures <\/strong>markets<\/strong> \u2014 a new high driven by a mix of climate-related production shocks and policy changes reshaping global trade patterns, reports ODI Global<\/a>. \u201cAt the beginning of this year, the prices were increasing every two weeks,\u201d Aly Khattab<\/a>, founder of ReQaf, told EnterpriseAM. Now it has eased, but not at the old prices. \u201cIt\u2019s still high, but it\u2019s stabilizing,\u201d said Khattab, \u201cSo now we can price, now we can plan, now we can forecast.\u201d Yet the most existential threat to coffee comes from climate change.<\/p>\n

Climate change has affected plant yields, and the supply hasn\u2019t been able to match <\/strong>demand.<\/strong> \u201cInstead of 10 trees yielding one ton, now it\u2019s 70 trees yielding the same amount,\u201d Khatab said. And it might get even worse. The land suitable for coffee farming could shrink by 50% within the next 25 years, wrote NPR<\/a>. Arabica, the main variety of coffee sold globally, grows at higher elevations, typically 1.2k meters above sea level or higher. But as the planet heats up, lower-altitude areas where Arabica used to grow are no longer ideal, pushing farms to plant even higher in the mountains with less yield. Coffee leaf rust, a climate-driven fungal disease, represents one of the biggest threats to global coffee production, compounding the challenges farmers already face.<\/p>\n

For coffee businesses, the quality implications are severe.<\/strong> \u201cIf you want to preserve your high quality products, you need to accept the increase,\u201d Khattab warns. \u201cOtherwise you will be forced to work with lower quality beans, which we\u2019ve unfortunately started witnessing in the market.\u201d Although Egyptian coffee makers \u201coperate in one of the most price-sensitive consumer markets in the world,\u201d Omar Abdallah<\/a>, co-founder and CEO of Brown Nose tells EnterpriseAM, he believes the company\u2019s approach \u2014 to \u201cfocus heavily on efficiency and optimizing the supply chain to absorb as much of the shock as possible,\u201d and to be honest with customers about the value of what they\u2019re drinking \u2014 cushions the blow. \u201cEgyptians are becoming more educated about specialty coffee,\u201d says Abdallah, \u201cand they\u2019re willing to pay a fair price when they understand the quality and craft behind it. The key is not just to pass costs on, but to earn that willingness by elevating the experience.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the grim outlook, researchers and industry players are developing innovative <\/strong>solutions.<\/strong> The EU-funded BOLERO initiative<\/a> is developing new coffee varieties through grafting techniques that join coffee plant tops onto hardier roots from wild coffee or Robusta varieties, creating plants that can withstand drought, pests, and extreme temperatures. This offers a crucial advantage: speed. Traditional plant breeding through cross-pollination can take 20-30 years \u2014 far slower than the pace of climate change. Grafting allows farmers to keep their favorite varieties while making plants more resilient in just a few years, rather than decades.<\/p>\n

Lesser-used coffee species, like Robusta, are gaining attention for their ability to tolerate<\/strong> hotter temperatures than Arabica. <\/strong>Growing at lower elevations, Robusta has increased from around 25% of global production in the early 1990s to more than 45% today, according to NPR. \u201cRobusta was always perceived as a bad quality bean,\u201d Khattab told us. \u201cIt\u2019s very bitter and doesn\u2019t have any fruity notes. But now people in Vietnam and Asia as a whole are focusing on developing it, making it taste better.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US\u2019 loss might be our gain.<\/strong> Heavy US tariffs on coffee-producing countries have driven up prices in the States. While the impact of US tariffs may have \u2014 more often than not \u2014 trickled down onto Egyptian markets, Khattab offers a counterintuitive perspective on how the tariffs might benefit the rest of the global market: \u201cThe US is one of the biggest coffee importers of Latin American beans, so US tariffs might make sellers focus on other markets, offering their product at a lower price.\u201d<\/p>\n

So why have we been seeing coffee prices crawl upwards in Egypt? <\/strong>It\u2019s not just climate change that carries significant implications on the Egyptian coffee industry \u2014 coffee consumption in Om El Donia has doubled<\/a> in 2017-2021. Global supply chain and national economic changes are compounded by logistical issues, despite Egypt being on the same continent as sought-after origins like Ethiopia and Kenya. \u201cCoffee coming from Africa used to come to the nearest port on the Red Sea and then exported to the Suez Canal,\u201d says Khattab. \u201cNow they need to go all the way to the other side, through the ocean, through the Alexandrian ports. So while our supply hasn\u2019t been affected as much as other countries, the logistical prices have.\u201d This is also the case for coffee coming from Latin America or Asia \u2014 Israel\u2019s increased attacks on Gaza have affected Suez Canal prices as well.<\/p>\n

But industry players are still optimistic. <\/strong>Egypt held the highest share in the regional coffee market last year, with the MENA market expected to grow<\/a> at least 7.8% annually through 2032. \u201cWhen the difference between a commodity cup and a specialty cup narrows, consumers start asking themselves why not choose better quality,\u201d Abdallah told us. \u201cIn Egypt, we\u2019re seeing a growing middle segment that values experience, provenance, and lifestyle. Coffee is no longer just caffeine \u2014 it\u2019s a statement of taste.\u201d While the market remains cost-sensitive, he believes premiumization is taking hold: \u201cIt\u2019s not a foreign concept anymore. It's our job as roasters and caf\u00e9 operators to make that upgrade feel natural and worthwhile.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are seeing what experts describe as one of the most turbulent periods in coffee\u2019s modern history<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":672879,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7215],"tags":[147,633,900,638,7196,145],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-672878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-for-your-commute","tag-climate-change","tag-enterprisepm","tag-food-and-beverage","tag-for-your-commute","tag-industry","tag-logistics","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"042f7da3-7e96-4395-82a6-9c911d5d9ea1","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/10\/51.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The coffee industry faces the perfect storm","related_issue":[672873],"teaser":"We are seeing what experts describe as one of the most turbulent periods in coffee\u2019s modern history","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.b13cc2e8-076b-44bb-8054-aa69096d583e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe coffee industry faces the perfect storm - 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The documentary setup is highly reminiscent of home\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS"","block_context":{"text":"ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-recommends-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/473.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579632,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/10\/are-we-going-to-gene-edit-our-way-out-of-climate-induced-agricultural-issues-dozens-of-private-jets-flying-into-cop27\/","url_meta":{"origin":672878,"position":4},"title":"Are we going to gene-edit our way out of climate-induced agricultural issues? + Dozens of private jets flying into COP27","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Can gene editing be a solution to the rising cost of climate change? Climate change has already had a number of effects on agriculture, including in Europe, which is seeing smaller harvests and higher production costs. Dutch farmer Hendrik Jan ten Cate told theFinancial Times he sees only one option\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "FOR YOUR COMMUTE"","block_context":{"text":"FOR YOUR COMMUTE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/for-your-commute\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/624.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557989,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/16\/covid-has-been-bad-for-coffee-and-good-to-video-games\/","url_meta":{"origin":672878,"position":5},"title":"Covid has been bad for coffee and good to video games","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Covid has been bad for coffee drinkers: The covid-19 lockdown in Vietnam is reducing the global supply of coffee, according to a Fitch Solutions report picked up by CNBC. Vietnam is the world\u2019s second-largest coffee exporter and the pandemic has affected its overseas shipments of coffee and other goods. Coffee\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "FOR YOUR COMMUTE"","block_context":{"text":"FOR YOUR COMMUTE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/for-your-commute\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/525.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=672878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/672878\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/672873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/672879"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=672878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=672878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=672878"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=672878"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=672878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}