{"id":672615,"date":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/28\/global-economys-growth-to-remain-subdued-amid-turbulence-in-the-year-ahead-economists-say\/"},"modified":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","slug":"global-economys-growth-to-remain-subdued-amid-turbulence-in-the-year-ahead-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/28\/global-economys-growth-to-remain-subdued-amid-turbulence-in-the-year-ahead-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Global economy\u2019s growth to remain subdued amid turbulence in the year ahead, economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chief economists\u2019 outlook on the economy is subdued amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, with risks tilted to the down<\/strong>side<\/strong>, according to the World Economic Forum\u2019s (WEF) latest Chief Economists\u2019 Outlook (pdf)<\/a>. A majority of 72% of the leading chief economists surveyed anticipate global economic conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead, especially across advanced economies, while emerging markets are seen as the main growth engines.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe global economy is undergoing a period of profound transformation,<\/strong> marked by persistent short-term disruption and heightened uncertainty as well as long-term structural change,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n

Economists were the most bullish on East Asia, South Asia, the Pacific<\/strong>, and the Middle East, where the majority of respondents expected moderate growth next year and a significant number expected strong growth. Around 48% see the Middle East showing moderate growth next year, while 34% see it exhibiting strong growth \u2014 the highest share across regions. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER: The global economy is <\/strong>expected to grow 3% this year<\/a><\/strong>, according to the International Monetary Fund, which upgraded its latest forecast on the back of lower-than expected tariffs and a weaker USD. The fund also predicts a slight growth acceleration to 3.1% in 2026, revising up its previous estimate by 0.1 percentage point.<\/p>\n

KEY HEADWINDS- <\/p>\n

Accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation \u2014 and a realignment of supply chains \u2014 is seen as the key challenge to global growth<\/strong>, with 82% of the survey respondents expecting it to intensify in the year ahead, hammered by the US\u2019 ongoing tariff spree, the report reads. <\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures also remain elevated<\/strong>, especially in the US, where 59% of chief economists anticipate higher inflation next year. Meanwhile, deflation is seen as a major headwind to the Chinese economy. <\/p>\n

Debt sustainability is also a growing concern<\/strong>, namely in advanced economies, where 80% of economists anticipate elevated debt vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n

Political instability and societal fragmentation<\/strong> topped the frequently cited inhibitors across both advanced and developing countries, with 68% of chief economists flagging this as a greater threat for advanced economies than for developing economies. <\/p>\n

Weak or inflexible institutions came in second place among the top challenges, <\/strong>with 58% of respondents considering it as the top constraint for developing economies, which remain well below advanced economies in terms of governance indicators. However, 44% of chief economists surveyed also see institutional rigidity as a headwind in advanced economies, where regulatory complexity is regularly cited by SMEs as their greatest barrier.<\/p>\n

Trade barriers and limited global integration<\/strong> was the third obstacle, affirming the need to resolve disputes and enhance openness. <\/p>\n

\n

POTENTIAL GROWTH DRIVERS- <\/p>\n

Trade openness and market access, as well as resolving trade disputes, was flagged as a top priority<\/strong>, with respondents seeing it a key growth driver for both advanced and developing economies.<\/p>\n

AI could also be a key growth driver: <\/strong>Some 68% of respondents expect AI to become commercially disruptive within the next year, up from 45% in April. It\u2019s seen as the main growth driver for advanced economies. Meanwhile, access to capital and resources are seen as crucial growth inputs in developing economies. <\/p>\n

Human capital development is seen as the second growth driver overall.<\/strong> It is seen as extremely important for developing markets, with almost two-thirds of the income gap between advanced and developing economies being attributed to disparities in human capital.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35,671<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +19.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,308<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0% (YTD: -6.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +6.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,855<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +13.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,644<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +13.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,285<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +13.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,500<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +12.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 70.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,809<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 109,571<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +17.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

926.79<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +19.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +7.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-8.7% (YTD: -11.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.8% at <\/strong>Thursday\u2019s<\/strong> close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.4 bn (1.5% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 19.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Arabian Cement (+5.0%), GB Corp (+1.6%), and Juhayna (+1.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Eastern Company (-3.2%), Raya Holding (-2.1%), and Orascom Construction (-1.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A majority of 72% of the leading chief economists surveyed anticipate global economic conditions to deteriorate next year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":672616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[104,72,348,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-672615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"18f82fbf-564d-48cf-b480-0b467043393c","order":"10","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/238.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Global economy\u2019s to remain resilient amid turbulence in the year ahead, economists say","related_issue":[672599],"teaser":"A majority of 72% of the leading chief economists surveyed anticipate global economic conditions to deteriorate next year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/9\/.3cb2d882-cc7e-48b9-ba52-c53d4fd4c4d2.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal economy\u2019s growth to remain subdued amid turbulence in the year ahead, economists say - 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