{"id":672604,"date":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/28\/ebrd-upgrades-egypts-2025-growth-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T00:00:00","slug":"ebrd-upgrades-egypts-2025-growth-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/28\/ebrd-upgrades-egypts-2025-growth-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD upgrades Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>EBRD upgrades Egypt\u2019s growth forecast:<\/strong> The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised Egypt\u2019s growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/5e5c9dcc-4815-4d67-8c4a-fa86e71cbc29\/ebrd-further-trims-egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-2025,-2026%253cmark%253e-growth-%253c%2Fmark%253eforecast\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">May estimates<\/a>, according to its latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/1599.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Regional Economic Prospects report (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The 2026 outlook:<\/strong> The EBRD kept its projections for 2026 unchanged \u2014 the multilateral lender expects the economy to grow 4.5% in 2026.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>As for this fiscal year: <\/strong>The lender still sees the economy growing 4.4% in the fiscal year 2025-2026. It revised upwards its forecast for the fiscal year ending June 2025 to 4.5%, a 0.7 percentage-point upgrade from its May projections on the back of higher than expected growth over the first nine months of the fiscal year \u201cdriven by a recovery in the manufacturing sector following a deep contraction as well as strong performance in wholesale and retail trade and transportation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>How this prediction compares to others: <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/786d4667-139a-4b10-982f-e98deca20819\/%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253ekey%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253etakeaways%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253efrom%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253ethe%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253eimf%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e%25e2%2580%2599%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253es%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253efourth%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253eloan%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e-%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253ereview%253cmark%253e%253c%2Fmark%253e\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">sees<\/a> Egypt\u2019s economy growing 4.1% this fiscal year, before accelerating to 4.6% growth in 2026-27. Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/9ffe8c1c-c0b4-4c24-96f0-74fbeb9d812c\/fitch-trims-our%253cmark%253e-growth-%253c%2Fmark%253eoutlook-for-fy-2025-26\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">expects<\/a> the economy to grow 4.7% this fiscal year and Deutsche Bank <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a462a981-d025-4b24-9788-40562feac75c\/structural-reforms-fuelling%253cmark%253e-growth-%253c%2Fmark%253ein-egypt,-deutsche-bank-says\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">puts<\/a> growth for the FY at 4.8%, citing a continued improvement in domestic demand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What about last year\u2019s performance?<\/strong> The multilateral lender now estimates Egypt\u2019s economy to have grown 3.1% in 2024, up from its preliminary projection of 2.9%. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation cooling:<\/strong> The bank pointed to a significant slowdown in price growth, noting that \u201cinflation averaged 15.7% year on year between January and July 2025, half the rate of the same period in 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER- <\/strong>Inflation <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c733ec3d-c191-420b-9a88-2a4e8f788011\/%253cmark%253einflation%253c%2Fmark%253e-eases-for-third-straight-month-to-12.0%2525-in-august\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">slipped to its lowest level<\/a> since March 2022 in August, coming in at 12.0%, and a number of analysts we spoke to see it staying on its downward trajectory. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Our external position looks more resilient:<\/strong> According to the EBRD, \u201cremittances increased by 82.7% year on year during the period July 2024 to March 2025,\u201d while \u201cforeign investors have returned to the short-term government debt market, owning 44.7% of outstanding T-bills as of March 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>That being said, deb<\/strong><strong>t concerns remain:<\/strong> The lender warned that \u201cdebt levels remain elevated, with servicing costs expected to absorb 65% of budget revenue in the fiscal year 2025-26,\u201d pointing to slow progress on reforms holding back potential growth. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK- <\/strong>Growth in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region is expected to come in at 3.7% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, after coming in at 3.6% during the first six months of the year. \u201cThe region benefited from strong recovery in tourism, increased remittance flows and improving external balances.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The lender now sees the economy growing at a 4.8% clip this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":672605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[571,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-672604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b6850352-61b4-47f1-a69e-a6ef34d026d5","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/1603.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EBRD upgrades Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast","related_issue":[672599],"teaser":"The lender now sees the economy growing at a 4.8% clip this year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/9\/.fec81640-f9df-4782-82f0-7679bf8e3776.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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This is an upwards revision of 0.4 percentage points from the bank\u2019s June\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/345.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":581157,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/21\/ebrd-predicts-slower-egypt-growth-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":672604,"position":4},"title":"EBRD predicts slower Egypt growth in 2023","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The bank now sees 4.6% growth this year.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/ebrd-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546303,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/11\/ebrd-downgrades-regional-growth-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":672604,"position":5},"title":"EBRD downgrades regional growth outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD downgrades regional growth forecasts as war continues in Ukraine: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its growth forecast for the nations in which the lender operates in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report (pdf). 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