{"id":671665,"date":"2025-09-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/11\/inflation-eases-for-third-straight-month-to-12-0-in-august-2\/"},"modified":"2025-09-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-eases-for-third-straight-month-to-12-0-in-august-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/11\/inflation-eases-for-third-straight-month-to-12-0-in-august-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation eases for third straight month to 12.0% in August"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Annual headline urban <\/strong><strong>inflation eased again in August<\/strong><strong> by nearly two <\/strong><strong>percentage points<\/strong>, falling to 12.0%, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas seen by EnterpriseAM. The 1.9 percentage point <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a270c5e9-ea16-4a9c-a8fa-f07853f0745f\/egypt%E2%80%99s-inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-to-13.9%25-in-july\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">fall from July<\/a> brings the country\u2019s headline figure to its lowest reading since March 2022 and marks the third consecutive month of easing price growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Pretty much all analysts saw headline inflation falling in August, but <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ff8fca3c-d66f-4b33-92f3-432b4e7c026e\/israel-strikes-qatar\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">few saw it falling so<\/a><\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ff8fca3c-d66f-4b33-92f3-432b4e7c026e\/israel-strikes-qatar\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">drastically<\/a><\/strong>, with a Reuters poll of 13 analysts producing a median forecast of 12.7%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Driving the decline was an easing in food and beverages prices<\/strong> \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 with food prices increasing only 2.1% y-o-y for the month. The 1.3 percentage point drop in the rate of food inflation was backed by slowing fish, dairy, and vegetable prices. The figure marks the third monthly deceleration in food price increases and a four-year low. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Non-food inflation also dropped 2.2 percentage points to 16.8% y-o-y<\/strong>, driven by transport inflation falling a whole 14.8 percentage points to 26.7% y-o-y on the back of a base effect from transport and fuel price hikes last year, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a recent research note seen by EnterpriseAM. Alongside this, healthcare price inflation eased 4.5 percentage points to 33.9% y-o-y, and restaurant and hotel price inflation eased 1.4 percentage points to 13.8% y-o-y. But prices didn\u2019t decrease across the board, with tobacco and alcohol, energy, and furnishings notching small upticks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But it\u2019s a different story on a monthly basis, with headline inflation back in the red<\/strong> after two months in the green. Monthly inflation came in at 0.4%, driven by a 3.5 percentage point jump in food price inflation to 0.5% on the back of higher fruit and vegetable prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What about core inflation? <\/strong>Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 fell 0.9 percentage points from July to 10.7% y-o-y, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation came in at 0.1%, after falling 0.3% a month earlier. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Looking ahead, confidence is growing that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will meet its upcoming inflation <\/strong><strong>targets<\/strong>, with Capital Economics thinking that the country will hit its 7% y-o-y (\u00b1 2 percentage points) target for 4Q 2026. Leading up to this, the firm sees gradual cooling continuing throughout the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Another vote for inflation dipping: <\/strong>Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hany.genena.2025\/posts\/731834083225711?ref=embed_post\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">expects<\/a> inflation to stay on its downward trajectory in September, to come in at 10% y-o-y, citing the delay in implementing electricity price hikes, exchange rate stability, and government efforts to keep prices low. \u201cIn this case, the CBE will have ample room to cut interest rates by 2 percentage points in October,\u201d he wrote. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But some expect an uptick in inflation toward the end of the year<\/strong>, including CI Capital, which sees inflation falling again in September on a favorable base effect before climbing in October in both annual and monthly turns, according to a research note from the financial services group seen by EnterpriseAM. CI Capital sees upcoming fuel price hikes in October pushing up headline inflation to around 14% by the end of the year. Beltone Holding Head of Research Ahmed Hafez sees inflation creeping back up towards the end of the year to around the 13% mark due to changes to the Old Rent Law, upcoming fuel price hikes next month, and the potential for cigarette price hikes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The drop in inflation will embolden the CBE to carry on <\/strong><strong>with rapid rate cuts<\/strong><strong> for the rest of the year<\/strong>, several analysts told EnterpriseAM. On the dovish side is Capital Economics, which sees the bank cutting rates by an additional 400 bps by the end of the year to bring the deposit rate to 18.00%. Hafez also sees room for further easing by the end of the year despite his expectation of an uptick in inflation, pointing to a real interest rate of 9% on both a trailing and forward-looking basis. Beltone\u2019s more hawkish forecast sees a further 200-250 bps worth of cuts by year-end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The drop in inflation also got ink in some corners of the global business press: <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/africa\/egypts-annual-urban-consumer-price-inflation-slows-12-august-139-july-2025-09-10\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation is at its lowest since March 2022<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":671666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-671665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c733ec3d-c191-420b-9a88-2a4e8f788011","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/634.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation eases for third straight month to 12.0% in August","related_issue":[671660],"teaser":"Inflation is at its lowest since March 2022","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/9\/.deadd8cb-5099-431c-90d8-824fb2404b4b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593854,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/13\/egypts-annual-headline-inflation-falls-again-in-september-clearing-the-way-for-more-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":671665,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation falls again in September, clearing the way for more cuts","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation falls again in September, clearing the way for more rate cuts: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped for the fourth consecutive month to 4.3% in September from 7.5% in August, its lowest recording in nearly seven years, according to Capmas data (pdf) released on Thursday. Annual urban inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2304.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638196,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/11\/inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-december-2022-recording-of-25-7-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":671665,"position":2},"title":"Inflation falls to lowest level since December 2022, recording of 25.7% in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly inflation fell to 0.4% in July from 1.6% the month before.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/826.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565438,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/inflation-uptick-as-ramadan-approaches\/","url_meta":{"origin":671665,"position":3},"title":"Inflation uptick as Ramadan approaches","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation accelerated slightly to 4.8% in March, up from 4.6% in February, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564507,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":671665,"position":4},"title":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":671665,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/671665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=671665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/671665\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/671660"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/671666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=671665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=671665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=671665"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=671665"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=671665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}