{"id":670129,"date":"2025-08-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/14\/capital-economics-sees-egp-rally-boosting-gdp-narrowing-current-account-gap\/"},"modified":"2025-08-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T00:00:00","slug":"capital-economics-sees-egp-rally-boosting-gdp-narrowing-current-account-gap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/14\/capital-economics-sees-egp-rally-boosting-gdp-narrowing-current-account-gap\/","title":{"rendered":"Capital Economics sees EGP rally boosting GDP, narrowing current account gap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Stronger EGP is seen boosting economic outlook: <\/strong>The EGP\u2019s rebound against the USD this year is poised to stimulate the country\u2019s GDP growth over the coming years and ease risks from the current account deficit, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>From pain to gain: Devaluation upside emerges. <\/strong>While the float of the EGP has caused short-term pain, it is now beginning to deliver some long-term benefits, CE noted. A significant sign of these gains is that the manufacturing component of the industrial production index reached a record high in May. This growth was fueled by increased output in key exporting industries, particularly textiles and chemicals.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Quick update before we dive in:<\/strong> The EGP continued its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/4f0be8e1-6e59-4318-a34d-40a8e86ebaa4\/egp-gains-more-momentum-against-the-greenback\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">rally<\/a> against the greenback yesterday, hitting its highest level in over a year. The USD was changing hands at EGP 48.30-48.40 at the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, and CIB by the end of yesterday\u2019s trading.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>This rebound is boosted by \u201cdaily inflows of USD 150-350 mn, in addition to revenues <\/strong><strong>derived from tourist expenditure,\u201d<\/strong> a banking source told EnterpriseAM yesterday. The USD may fall below the EGP 48 mark before the end of this month, if economic indicators continue to support the local currency, the source anticipates. The source also noted the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e77b3616-8ca5-41b0-b0a7-8b2aa20b81ab\/finmin-expects%253cmark%253e-imf%253c%2Fmark%253e-reviews-to-wrap-up-this-fall,-unlocking-usd-2.5-bn-disbursement\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">completion<\/a> of the fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn IMF loan program \u2014 which is penciled in for September or October \u2014 would further strengthen the EGP in 4Q. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The EGP has gained nearly 5% so far this year.<\/strong> Real effective exchange rate \u2014 a measure of the trade-weighted exchange rate adjusted for inflation \u2014 has appreciated by around 10% YTD, CE noted. \u201cEven so, it remains close to the low it reached following the devaluation in 2016 and is nearly 25% weaker than in early 2024. And there is growing evidence that the associated improvement in external competitiveness is bearing fruit,\u201d the research note read.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why this rally is not a red flag: <\/strong>The currency\u2019s strength would have raised concerns in the past due to previous patterns of overvaluation and subsequent devaluations. But this time, the situation is different and the CE is not so alarmed. Why? Because the EGP\u2019s recent gains largely mirror the USD\u2019s weakness. Meanwhile, the EGP has fallen nearly 7% against the EUR this year and, on a trade-weighted basis, has been stable since January, the research note highlighted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Egypt\u2019s current account deficit is seen narrowing further<\/strong>, with services exports set to benefit from a surge in tourism revenues boosted by increased competitiveness, CE noted. Our current account deficit <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/6d77b4da-9cac-42e6-8998-fbd741ec874a\/%2525d8%2525aa%2525d9%252582%2525d9%252584%2525d8%2525b5-%2525d8%2525b9%2525d8%2525ac%2525d8%2525b2-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d8%2525ad%2525d8%2525b3%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525a8-%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252584%2525d8%2525ac%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525b1%2525d9%25258a-%2525d8%2525a5%2525d9%252584%2525d9%252589-13.2-%2525d9%252585%2525d9%252584%2525d9%25258a%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525b1-%2525d8%2525af%2525d9%252588%2525d9%252584%2525d8%2525a7%2525d8%2525b1-%2525d9%252581%2525d9%25258a-%2525d8%2525a3%2525d9%252588%2525d9%252584-9-%2525d8%2525a3%2525d8%2525b4%2525d9%252587%2525d8%2525b1-%2525d9%252585%2525d9%252586-%2525d8%2525b9%2525d8%2525a7%2525d9%252585-2025%252F2024\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">narrowed<\/a> to USD 13.2 bn in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-2025. Most of the improvement came in 3Q, when the current account deficit narrowed 69.3% y-o-y on the back of surging remittances, higher tourism revenues, and a jump in non-oil exports. \u201cOn a seasonally-adjusted basis, Egypt\u2019s current account deficit has improved sharply and is smaller than after a similar-sized fall in the EGP in 2016,\u201d CE noted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Speaking of tourism, more holidaymakers are looking at Egypt: <\/strong>The research note highlighted reports from Tui \u2014 Europe\u2019s largest package holiday operator \u2014 that indicate that many travellers are shifting to more affordable destinations like Egypt instead of pricier European locations such as Spain. \u201cIn the four quarters to 1Q, tourism receipts rose to a 14-year high of 4.6% of GDP,\u201d the research note read.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The Madbouly government<\/strong><strong> is <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/77933bb3-9bd8-4b17-b329-2e729e223d68\/coptic-christmas-announced-as-paid-holiday-for-public,-private-sectors\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">aiming to attract<\/a><\/strong><strong> 18 mn tourists by the end of the year<\/strong>, contributing to the nation\u2019s economic growth. In the first nine months of the last fiscal year, tourism revenues increased 15.4% y-o-y to USD 12.5 bn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Another significant indicator is the surge in <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/56c93d8d-483b-4693-b687-ecc4afd58426\/remittances-reach-all-time-may-high\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">remittances<\/a><\/strong><strong> inflows<\/strong>, which reached \u201ca seven-year high of 9.3% of GDP\u201d in the four quarters leading to the 1Q 2025, according to the research note. This increase is partly a result of improved FX conditions, which have boosted confidence among Egyptians abroad.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>ALSO- A potential easing of regional tensions and a recovery in Red Sea shipping would <\/strong><strong>bo<\/strong><strong>ost Suez Canal revenues. <\/strong>The waterway, a vital source of FX revenues, has been severely impacted by continued Red Sea disruptions, with receipts dropping 54.1% y-o-y to USD 2.6 bn during the first nine months of the last fiscal year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Macrostability returned:<\/strong> CE said that the improvement in the balance of payments signals that the country is restoring macroeconomic stability, noting that the priority for officials right now is to advance structural reforms aimed at unlocking stronger GDP growth over the medium-to-long term.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>On the risks ahead: <\/strong>Growing global trade tensions pose a risk to Egypt, particularly the 10% base tariff imposed by the US, with the textiles industry emerging as a vulnerable sector, seeing as around half of its output is exported to the US, CE said. However, \u201cthe economic hit in aggregate should be small.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The EGP continued its rally against the greenback yesterday, hitting its highest level in over a year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":670130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[1433,104,72,1666],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-670129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capital-economics","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-exchange-rate","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"771ea318-334f-4d64-a428-99d00fb55eb9","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1393.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Capital Economics sees EGP rally boosting GDP, narrowing current account gap","related_issue":[670121],"teaser":"The EGP continued its rally against the greenback yesterday, hitting its highest level in over a year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/8\/.6a1b40ce-4a2e-41cb-bbd4-92258b6fd33a.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Capital Economics sees Egypt\u2019s GDP growth accelerating to 5.5-6% between 2018-2020, up from 5.0% last year, \u201cas inflation falls, interest rates are cut and the pace of austerity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594319,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":670129,"position":1},"title":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics: Egypt will be the MENA region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 as the central bank continues to cut interest rates and the government loosens fiscal policy, William Jackson, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Thursday. GDP will grow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/660.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":659226,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/23\/capital-economics-sees-egypts-gdp-hitting-5-0-clip-in-2024-25-in-above-consensus-projection\/","url_meta":{"origin":670129,"position":2},"title":"Capital Economics sees Egypt\u2019s GDP hitting 5.0% clip in 2024-25 in above-consensus projection","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 January 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP growth is seen continuing to pick up again in the following fiscal year to 5.3%","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1656.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573916,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/24\/pressure-on-the-egp-is-easing-now-that-the-worst-of-the-balance-of-payments-crunch-is-over-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":670129,"position":3},"title":"Pressure on the EGP is easing now that the worst of the balance of payments crunch is over \u2013Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Pressure on the EGP is easing now that the worst of the balance of payments crunch is over, Capital Economics says in a new report. 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There are obvious downside risks to external debt, including \u201croll-over risks \u2014 if risk appetite deteriorates, it can become much more difficult to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/156.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598693,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/egypts-budget-deficit-hits-5-3-of-gdp-in-9m2018-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":670129,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit hits 5.3% of GDP in 9M2018-2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit fell to 5.3% of GDP in 9M2018-2019, compared to 6.2% in the same period the previous year, the Finance Ministry said in its April monthly bulletin (pdf). 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