{"id":669907,"date":"2025-08-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/11\/inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-to-13-9-in-july\/"},"modified":"2025-08-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-to-13-9-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/11\/inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-to-13-9-in-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation cools for second consecutive month to 13.9% in July"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual headline urban inflation cooled further in July by a <\/strong>whole percentage point<\/strong>, falling to 13.9% from 14.9% in June<\/a>, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas seen by EnterpriseAM. The rate of inflation is now at its slowest pace since March 2025.<\/p>\n

Driving the decline was an easing in food and beverages prices<\/strong> \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 which rose 3.4% y-o-y in July, compared to 6.9% in June.<\/p>\n

This unexpected decrease pushed the headline figure below forecasts<\/strong>, HC Securities\u2019 Heba Monir, who had predicted inflation rising to 15.4% y-o-y during the month, told EnterpriseAM. Due to the weight of food and beverage prices in calculating the headline figure, this decrease outweighed other segment increases like tobacco, she added.<\/p>\n

Certain segments saw increases<\/strong>, like<\/strong> alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices, which rose <\/strong>24% y-o-y during the month<\/strong>, compared to 15.8% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, this category rose by 7.9% in July, compared to a flat 0.0% change in the previous month, which followed the House approving<\/a> amendments to the VAT Law in late June that specifically impacted the prices of cigarettes and alcoholic beverages, among other categories. Analysts had expected the decision to significantly fuel July inflation readings, but the effect was less pronounced than anticipated.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s a different story for annual core inflation<\/strong>, with the reading \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 increasing 0.2 percentage points from June to 11.6% y-o-y, according to data<\/a> from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).<\/p>\n

On a monthly basis, urban inflation fell 0.5%<\/strong>, after also shedding 0.1% in the previous month. Food and beverages inflation dipped a whole 3.0%, with fruit prices falling 11.0% m-o-m, vegetable prices down 7.0% m-o-m, and meat and poultry prices decreasing 4.9% m-o-m. While core monthly inflation recorded a decrease of negative 0.3%, representing deflation speeding up from the negative 0.2% recorded the month before.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis decline in prices was expected because we are seeing deflation, not just <\/strong>disinflation<\/strong>, in many goods on a month-on-month basis,\u201d Ahly Pharos\u2019 Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. The drop in the headline figure can also be explained by the postponement<\/a> of electricity price hikes and the appreciation of the EGP against the USD offsetting cigarette price hikes, Genena noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cInflationary pressures, apart from administrative price increases, have significantly <\/strong>de<\/strong>clined over the past two months,\u201d <\/strong>Beltone Holding Head of Research Ahmed Hafez told us. \u201cRegardless of prices for vegetables, fruits, and meat, I believe the current monthly inflation rate appears to be consistent with the CBE\u2019s target,\u201d Hafez noted. However, he expects increases in administrative prices in the coming period, which may cause the overall inflation figure to range between 12-14% on average.<\/p>\n

But some highlighted that the easing of prices is not across the board and inflationary <\/strong>pressures still persist. <\/strong>\u201cThe slowdown was driven by a decrease in the prices of meat, poultry and vegetables. However, the rise in bread, cereals, and seafood prices indicates that the trend is uneven,\u201d economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe most significant threat to this trend is the potential for inflation to spike again due to <\/strong>global shocks or pressures on the exchange rate,\u201d<\/strong> Abou El Fotouh noted. To mitigate this risk, it is crucial for policymakers to implement meticulous financial management to enhance local production, thereby reducing the country\u2019s dependence on imports, Abou El Fotouh added.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The CBE slightly revised<\/a> its baseline and alternative annual headline inflation forecasts and now sees inflation averaging 15-16% in 2025, up from its 14-15% forecast, and 11-12% in 2026, up from its previous 10-12.5% prediction.<\/p>\n

The slowing of inflation will only embolden forecasts that the central bank will cut rates <\/strong>later this month<\/strong>, with its Monetary Policy Committee set to meet on 28 August. The committee decided to keep rates steady<\/a> at their last meeting as the market digests the 325 bps of cuts earlier in the year, but analysts see the bank moving to cut a further 200-300 bps by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Some corners of the international press also picked up the story:<\/strong> Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The decline is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices, which rose 3.4% y-o-y in July<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":669908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-669907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a270c5e9-ea16-4a9c-a8fa-f07853f0745f","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation cools for second consecutive month to 13.9% in July","related_issue":[669902],"teaser":"The decline is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices, which rose 3.4% y-o-y in July","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/8\/.13453361-c2eb-4d46-b9bd-3eefe140795c.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation cools for second consecutive month to 13.9% in July - 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Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":669873,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/10\/inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-hitting-13-9-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":669907,"position":2},"title":"Inflation cools for second consecutive month, hitting 13.9% in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 August 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, friends, and welcome to the start of another workweek. It\u2019s a calm day on the news front, and at home, we\u2019re celebrating a cooling inflation rate. THE BIG STORY TODAY- Annual headline urban inflation cooled further for the second consecutive month to hit 13.9% in July, down from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/833.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573589,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-july-to-4-2-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":669907,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in July to 4.2%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation decelerated to 4.2% in July, down from an uptick to 5.6% in June, according to central bank figures (pdf). The central bank attributed the decline to a favorable base effect. Monthly headline urban figures remained restrained at 0.4% in July, compared to 1.8% during the same month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/75.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":669907,"position":4},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548518,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/11\/inflation-hits-new-three-year-high-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":669907,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits new three-year high in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation resumed its upward trend in July, reaching a fresh three-year high on the back of higher food and fuel prices, according to official figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf). Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.6% y-o-y in July, up from 13.2% in June when prices unexpectedly cooled\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/216.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=669907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669907\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/669902"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/669908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=669907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=669907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=669907"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=669907"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=669907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}