{"id":669229,"date":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/30\/imf-expects-the-economy-to-have-grown-4-0-last-fy\/"},"modified":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","slug":"imf-expects-the-economy-to-have-grown-4-0-last-fy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/30\/imf-expects-the-economy-to-have-grown-4-0-last-fy\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF expects the economy to have grown 4.0% last FY"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, all.<\/strong> We have another busy issue for you this morning, led by the latest on the government\u2019s efforts to keep the lights on all summer long (and beyond) and so much investment news \u2014 the state\u2019s ESIIC is looking to set up a USD 400 mn bioethanol plant that will run on sugarcane waste, Chinese smartphone maker Infinix is keeping our smartphone localization dreams alive with the promise to set up its third factory in Egypt next year, and search fund investment firm Moonbase Capital will open up an Egypt office. <\/p>\n

<\/a> The<\/strong> US Federal Reserve\u2019s Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting today<\/strong>, which analysts expect will see the Fed stay the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from President Donald Trump<\/a>. The Fed is broadly expected to gradually resume its monetary easing cycle in September.<\/p>\n

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE-<\/strong> The Fed meeting comes nearly a full month before the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee has its next meeting on 28 August. Regardless of the timing, the Fed\u2019s decisions no longer have as much impact on the CBE\u2019s monetary policy decisions due to Egypt\u2019s unusually high real interest rate, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. The CBE has room to cut interest rates by 4 percentage points before the end of the year, even if the Fed keeps rates on hold, Genena said. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The CBE decided to leave interest rates unchanged<\/a> in its fourth meeting in July. The move marks a halt in the MPC\u2019s easing cycle, after it cut rates by 225 bps<\/a> in April and 100 bps<\/a> in May.<\/p>\n

We could, however, be impacted by a combination of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy and <\/strong>Trump\u2019s tariff policies moving forward.<\/strong> A rate cut in the US would likely weaken the USD, which could help improve local inflation dynamics, although it wouldn\u2019t address our structural trade deficit problems, Zilla Capital Head of Research Aya Zoheir told us. The best-case \u2014 but unlikely \u2014 scenario is that Trump takes a more \u201crational\u201d stance on tariffs, while the Fed cuts interest rates by a total of 50 bps by the end of the year, Zoheir said. On the flipside, things could take a turn for the worse if Trump escalates his conflict with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which would trigger volatility in global markets and potentially drive portfolio investments out of Egypt. That scenario would bring the EGP under further pressure and fuel inflation, Zoheir added.<\/p>\n

WORTH NOTING- <\/strong>The EGP continued to strengthen against the greenback yesterday \u2014 the USD was changing hands at EGP 48.75-48.62 at the end of yesterday\u2019s trading.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/p>\n

Mark your calendar for the 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum<\/strong>, our flagship forum and part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings. Tap to register your interest to attend. Want to partner with us? Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at mtaalab@enterpriseadvisory.com to explore sponsorship opportunities.<\/strong><\/p>\n

PSA- <\/p>\n

WEATHER- <\/strong>Cairo is getting a little break from the extreme heat today, with the mercury set to peak at 35\u00b0C before cooling down to a sensible 26\u00b0C, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a little cooler in Alexandria<\/strong>, with a high of 31\u00b0C and a low of 24\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

GDP WATCH-<\/p>\n

<\/a> I<\/strong>MF revises up F<\/strong>Y 2024-2025 growth estimate: <\/strong>The IMF now expects Egypt\u2019s economy to have grown 4.0% in the fiscal year that ended in June \u2014 up from its April estimate of 3.8%<\/a>, according to the fund\u2019s July update to its World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a>. However, the fund trimmed its FY 2025-2026 forecast to 4.1%, down from 4.3% in April. While the report didn\u2019t offer commentary on Egypt, the global revisions were attributed to front-loading ahead of tariffs, looser financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major economies.<\/p>\n

What about the global picture? <\/strong>We dive deeper into the WOE update in this morning\u2019s Planet Finance, below. <\/p>\n

Reuters economists agree on last year, but see faster growth ahead: <\/strong>A Reuters poll<\/a> of 13 economists also expect 4.0% growth for the last fiscal year, slightly up from the 3.8% consensus in April. But they\u2019re more bullish on this fiscal year, seeing GDP accelerating to 4.6% amid stronger manufacturing activity and reforms tied to the IMF program.<\/p>\n

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DIPLOMACY- <\/p>\n

Eg<\/strong>ypt joins Arab, Western nations in call<\/strong>ing on Hamas to disarm, exit Gaza:<\/strong> Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia joined 14 other countries and the EU and Arab League in signing a declaration calling for Hamas to end its rule in Gaza and disarm, in what France described as an \u201cunprecedented\u201d move, writes AFP<\/a>. The declaration \u2014 issued during the UN conference on the two-state solution earlier this week \u2014 calls for the Palestinian Authority to take over Gaza with international backing, and condemns the 7 October Hamas attacks. <\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- <\/strong>A new low-volatility index is coming to the EGX n<\/strong>ext month:<\/strong> The Egyptian Exchange will launch the EGX35-LV index on 1 August to track the 35 most liquid stocks with the lowest price volatility, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The new benchmark spans 13 sectors.<\/p>\n

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#2- A<\/strong> Chinese appliances player co<\/strong>uld set up shop in Sadat City:<\/strong> A major Chinese home appliances manufacturer is looking to invest USD 300 mn to build a factory in Sadat City, Hassan Mabrouk, head of the Home Appliance Division at the Federation of Egyptian Industries, told Al Borsa<\/a>. The company has begun talks with the government to obtain a golden license and plans to break ground on the project next year upon receiving the required approvals. <\/p>\n

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Get Enterprise<\/b> daily <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover <\/strong>Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/strong> and the <\/strong>UAE<\/a><\/strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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DEBT WATCH-<\/p>\n

<\/a> Liq<\/strong>uidity absorption drops to 15-month l<\/strong>ow:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt accepted 16 bids for just EGP 154.7 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a fixed rate of 24.50% during its weekly fixed-rate auction, according to data<\/a> published on its website. This marks the lowest liquidity mop-up since April 2024, when it withdrew EGP 150 mn.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

It\u2019s relatively calm in the foreign press this morning<\/strong>, as we gear up for a much busier few days heading into the weekend. <\/p>\n

What to watch out for:<\/strong> Today\u2019s Fed decision<\/strong> and indicators for future rates decisions; a slew of corporate earnings<\/strong>, including from Meta and Microsoft later today and Apple and Amazon tomorrow; and a potentially big day for markets<\/strong> on Friday, when higher US tariffs are set to take effect. <\/p>\n

For now, the story getting the most attention in the foreign press:<\/strong> The US and China have wrapped their trade talks in Stockholm with no agreement in sight yet, though US President Donald Trump said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent felt \u201cgood\u201d about the talks. Trump would have to give final approval on any agreement, Bessent confirmed. The 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on 12 August, after which Chinese exports could be subject to up to a 125% tariff \u2014 as floated by Trump earlier in the year. (Bloomberg<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> | Guardian<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Speaking of tariffs: <\/strong>Procter & Gamble is forecasting a USD 1 bn hit on the back of US tariffs, and said it would hike prices \u201cmoderately\u201d in the US as part of its long-term strategy. (Financial Times<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Also getting ink: <\/strong>AI firm Anthropic is eyeing a USD 170 bn valuation with a USD 5 bn new funding round set to be led by Iconiq Capital, with potential investments from the the Qatar Investment Authority and Singapore\u2019s sovereign fund GIC. This comes shortly after a note to staff from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he\u2019s looking towards the region for funding despite still holding it in contempt. (Bloomberg<\/a> | CNBC<\/a>) <\/p>\n

ALSO- The UK said it would recognize Palestine if Israel does not end the war by September<\/strong>, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron, who said France will recognize the Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. (DW<\/a> | BBC<\/a> | NPR<\/a>)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s Hardhat day \u2014 your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt:<\/strong> EnterpriseAM\u2019s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education. <\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue: <\/strong>We take a look at what\u2019s pushing local contractors to search for projects abroad. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning, all. 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IMF mission chief Celine\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563402,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/30\/this-morning-final-imf-tranche-lands-in-egypt-corporate-green-bond-sign-off-today-cairo-book-fair-opens-today-tigray-forces-vow-to-fight-on\/","url_meta":{"origin":669229,"position":1},"title":"THIS MORNING: Final IMF tranche lands in Egypt; Corporate green-bond sign-off today? Cairo Book Fair opens today; Tigray forces vow to fight on.","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to our final issue of the week as we all prepare for a three-day weekend and the unofficial start of Sahel season. Egypt is closed tomorrow through Saturday. Thursday, 1 July, is a national holiday in observance of the 30 June Revolution. Banks and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550048,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/this-morning-the-imfs-crystal-ball-is-dark-and-stormy\/","url_meta":{"origin":669229,"position":2},"title":"THIS MORNING: The IMF\u2019s crystal ball is dark and stormy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, lovely people, and happy almost-Thursday. All eyes remain fixed on Washington DC this morning as the IMF and World Bank annual meetings continue.On the home front, it\u2019s a good day on Planet Startup as two pharma companies snag funding rounds and the Nclude fintech fund gets a boost\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562860,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/09\/this-morning-final-imf-tranche-coming-this-month-also-palestine-leaders-in-town-for-talks-another-export-subsidies-rethink-is-in-the-works\/","url_meta":{"origin":669229,"position":3},"title":"THIS MORNING: Final IMF tranche coming this month? Also: Palestine leaders in town for talks + another export subsidies rethink is in the works","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends. There\u2019s not a gram of fat in this morning\u2019s issue \u2014 it\u2019s a heavy news day with lots of business news pushing the latest on covid-19 far down our priority list, so let\u2019s jump right in. Oh, and the rest of the month is looking really, really\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597344,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/24\/what-were-tracking-on-24-july-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":669229,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 24 July 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, folks, and welcome back to the second half of our shortened work week. We should find out today whether the IMF\u2019s executive board will sign off on disbursing the final USD 2 bn tranche of our USD 12 bn loan. Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544463,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/06\/this-morning-goodbye-covid-watch-imf-warns-of-global-economic-impact-of-ukraine-war-fx-reserves-rise-in-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":669229,"position":5},"title":"THIS MORNING: Goodbye Covid Watch; IMF warns of global economic impact of Ukraine war; FX reserves rise in February.","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends, and happy Sunday to you all. This morning\u2019s issue is a bit like drinking from a fire hose, so let\u2019s jump straight in:THE BIG STORY ABROAD THIS MORNING- The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia will have a \u201csevere impact\u201d on the global economy, the IMF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=669229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669229\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/669227"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/669230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=669229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=669229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=669229"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=669229"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=669229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}